IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 The 12z NAM is a bit less progressive with the ULL than 06z. It's a shame that the surface low develops so late and carries the baroclinic zone east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 One thing I notice is that the PNA peaks before the AO bottoms, and the NAO bottoms after that. I think that's why we aren't seeing the cross-polar stronger intrusion of cold, it looks like the indices that represent the pattern drivers aren't in sync for deep cold. I'd expect things to trend towards slightly below to below. rather than strong below average. They'll be solidly below normal days. Averages by then are in the low 50s so highs in the low 40s along with lows possibly in the 20s would register -10 departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 One thing I notice is that the PNA peaks before the AO bottoms, and the NAO bottoms after that. I think that's why we aren't seeing the cross-polar stronger intrusion of cold, it looks like the indices that represent the pattern drivers aren't in sync for deep cold. I'd expect things to trend towards slightly below to below. rather than strong below average. The reason why we lose the cross-polar flow is the EPO, namely, the transient breakdown of the Alaskan mid level ridge which has funneled cold air into our area for 2 consecutive winters now. The EPO will be positive over the next week, and thus, the pattern initially (next week), will not be brutally cold relative to normal even w/ a -NAO. However, if you note the ensemble progression beyond the next week, the negative EPO feature returns by the 22nd-23rd and hence the cross polar flow. This is why the coldest air relative to normal may occur in the final week of March (23rd-31st). Of course we don't see highs akin to February, but it should be cold for late March standards. The negative EPO is progged consistently on model data through week 3, and the physical forcing mechanisms globally support its maintenance through early April at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 12z NAM is wetter, 0.75"+ contour shifted about 60 miles further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 If you are holding on to winter chances for late March, especially after the winter we've had, you need some self-examination. "especially after the winter we've had". You mean the below average temperature/above average snowfall winter, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 If you are holding on to winter chances for late March, especially after the winter we've had, you need some self-examination. Take the psych posts to banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 The 12z GFS was about an inch of rain near the city, slightly less West and slightly more east. The 12z GEFS mean is wetter with 1"+ for most areas and 1.25"+ for Eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 We lost this battle as soon as the ULL energy decided to dig for gold over Mexico. Look how different the 12z GFS was from just six days ago compared to today's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 anyone got Euro QPF total for Saturday's rains for the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 The 12z GFS was about an inch of rain near the city, slightly less West and slightly more east. The 12z GEFS mean is wetter with 1"+ for most areas and 1.25"+ for Eastern areas. The areas that normally flood may want to start prepping for it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 anyone got Euro QPF total for Saturday's rains for the region? 0.50"-0.70" region wide. It was definitely drier than 00z but has been running consistently drier than the consensus. I would plan on an inch + East of NYC and 0.75"+ West of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 12, 2015 Share Posted March 12, 2015 SREF is wetter again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 The models are converging on a day 8 storm getting forced underneath the block to our south. The million dollar question is whether the block and 50/50 will be strong enough to keep the R/S line far enough south to make things interesting? We would need that Canadian high to press far enough south so the colder air would stay in place for the storms arrival. The current batch of OP models are favoring the interior Northeast for snow which would be closer to late March climo. But will see if the high can make that press and force the battlezone closer to our area in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 0z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 13, 2015 Author Share Posted March 13, 2015 So it comes down to next Weekend is out last possible shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 So it comes down to next Weekend is out last possible shot... This corresponds well with the MJO going into 8-1. While this does not 100 percent mean that it will snow, this will increase the chance of it with a developing -NAO/-AO and +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 So we should be looking at a dreary and chilly April with this upcoming pattern correct? At least for the first half of the month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Total rainfall for this coming weekend according to GFS 12z Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 This corresponds well with the MJO going into 8-1. While this does not 100 percent mean that it will snow, this will increase the chance of it with a developing -NAO/-AO and +PNA. The Euro is showing the storm and the high is just pressing a little too much this run much so it scoots just to our south. We need just enough high in later runs to keep it cold, but not suppress the low too far south. Plenty of time to track and make adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Looks weak. We need a much stronger vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 13, 2015 Share Posted March 13, 2015 Looks weak. We need a much stronger vort. Its fine at this range. If the ULL in Canada holds, it would force the shortwave that spawns the low to dig and close off. The potential is ripe, the 00z EURO showed this as well. I'm giddy on the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Either the confluence has to lessen or the vort strengthen- too much confluence and not a strong enough trough as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 So we should be looking at a dreary and chilly April with this upcoming pattern correct? At least for the first half of the month? Sadly yes. I just hope we dont have that year from hell again, i forget when 2004 maybe? 40's and rain on memorial day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Sadly yes. I just hope we dont have that year from hell again, i forget when 2004 maybe? 40's and rain on memorial day. 2005 was awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Either the confluence has to lessen or the vort strengthen- too much confluence and not a strong enough trough as depicted. Being late March, we need the strong confluence to hold the cold in. I think we need a much stronger vort and storm to have any chance. By strong, I mean a full blown <985mb noreaster near the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Sadly yes. I just hope we dont have that year from hell again, i forget when 2004 maybe? 40's and rain on memorial day. 2009 was a very cool and rainy spring/summer as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 new CFS loop from COD MET http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=2015031400-CFS-NA-850-temp-0-1 home page http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ quality simulation.... always has some room for improvement lefty kicker = lakes cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 new CFS loop from COD MET http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/mod/index.php?type=2015031400-CFS-NA-850-temp-0-1 home page http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ guitar.gif rock on Where have we seen this pattern before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 12Z Canadian shows the Equinox snow storm again. Looks decently frozen for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Looks like Euro also shows the ggem storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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