RedSky Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 The pattern moving forward on the gfs is just amazing. You say this every other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 You say this every other day It's the truth though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 The pattern looked good for this weekend if you go back six days ago. I'm sure that things will change for the end of the month by the middle of next week. Just based off of statistical probability and climo alone, the chances of any pro-longed period of Winter weather is rapidly coming to an end. The same borderline setup in January doesn't work in late March. The closed ULL for Sunday passes over Central Maine on the 12z ECWMF. Nobody out of extreme Northern New England sees measurable snow. Ontop of that, the rain for Saturday has been reduced to around an inch on most of the modeling. What once promised to be a pro-longed period of Wintry precipitation followed by heavy rain has now morphed into a few hours of light to occasionally moderate rain. Take the under this year on QPF and weak sauce systems and you will have guessed right over 90% of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 The pattern looked good for this weekend if you go back six days ago. I'm sure that things will change for the end of the month by the middle of next week. Just based off of statistical probability and climo alone, the chances of any pro-longed period of Winter weather is rapidly coming to an end. The same borderline setup in January doesn't work in late March. The closed ULL for Sunday passes over Central Maine on the 12z ECWMF. Nobody out of extreme Northern New England sees measurable snow. Ontop of that, the rain for Saturday has been reduced to around an inch on most of the modeling. What once promised to be a pro-longed period of Wintry precipitation followed by heavy rain has now morphed into a few hours of light to occasionally moderate rain. Take the under this year on QPF and weak sauce systems and you will have guessed right over 90% of the time. A red tagger said it best here yesterday, what sometimes looks super impressive at the mid and upper levels doesn't always transfer down to the surface, especially in late March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 The pattern was never supposed to look good until the middle of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 LOL CMC has 498 thickness right near our area at 204 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 A red tagger said it best here yesterday, what sometimes looks super impressive at the mid and upper levels doesn't always transfer down to the surface, especially in late MarchDude do not misquote PT. He said what we have said , what you see at 500 doesn't always transfer to the surface. Nothing to do with " late March " . That was not his quote. It's urs . Great 500 s sometimes miss in JAN. You guys have no idea what the pattern is setting up. You were all so sure it wasn't going to get cold again. Now 7 days later you all see it and now it's on to the next denial of what the pattern is setting up. It's going to get cold right ? Been honking that for 7 days. Good I am glad you all see it now. Took long enough. These are the patterns that support big events. If it does not happen it has nothing to do with March and I am sure PT would agree. You guys need to post in the banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Dude do not misquote PT. He said what we have said , what you see at 500 doesn't always transfer to the surface. Nothing to do with " late March " . That was not his quote. It's urs . Great 500 s sometimes miss in JAN. You guys have no idea what the pattern is setting up. You were all so sure it wasn't going to get cold again. Now 7 days later you all see it and now it's on to the next denial of what the pattern is setting up. It's going to get cold right ? Been honking that for 7 days. Good I am glad you all see it now. Took long enough. These are the patterns that support big events. If it does not happen it has nothing to do with March and I am sure PT would agree. You guys need to post in the banter. Late March does play a role imo, especially if it's a borderline setup. A borderline setup will work in dec, jan, feb. A borderline setup at the end of March? Not so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Late March does play a role imo, especially if it's a borderline setup. A borderline setup will work in dec, jan, feb. A borderline setup at the end of March? Not so much THERE IS NOTHING BORDERLINE ABOUT WHAT THAT 500 MB LOOKS LIKE . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 It does not get better than this . We need the surface to respond to it and the result would be a big ticket item . IF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 THERE IS NOTHING BORDERLINE ABOUT WHAT THAT 500 MB LOOKS LIKE . Looks borderline to me. 540 thickness line straddles the northern most part of the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Looks borderline to me. 540 thickness line straddles the northern most part of the metro area. I swear some of you do ZERO work in here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 We know it's going to get a lot colder and be well below normal relative to normal for the last 1/3 of March. The question remains if they'll be anything in play during that time. The pattern will certainly make things interesting though in what is usually a very dull time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 We know it's going to get a lot colder and be well below normal relative to normal for the last 1/3 of March. The question remains if they'll be anything in play during that time. The pattern will certainly make things interesting though in what is usually a very dull time frame. Now that is fair . GREAT 500s don`t always mean a KU . But if it does not happen it will not be because it is March , it will just mean we missed a handoff or something got suppressed etc . Either way when you see a 500 mb pattern lock in for 10 days like that , you should be rubbing your hands together , because if you are ever going to see a big one , that`s the set up we need . However nothing is guaranteed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 We are within 100 or so miles of that progged 0C surface line, in the latter half of March, at 240 hrs out, with the 500mb map looking borderline. The setup is borderline, at BEST. Some of you are pretending we live in southern Quebec or something. By March 20th, you need a -10 or greater departure just to average freezing (combined high/low). Your average high is in the low 50s by that point. Do the math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 We are within 100 or so miles of that progged 0C surface line, in the latter half of March, at 240 hrs out, with the 500mb map looking borderline. The setup is borderline, at BEST. Some of you are pretending we live in southern Quebec or something. By March 20th, you need a -10 or greater departure just to average freezing (combined high/low). Your average high is in the low 50s by that point. Do the math. You need a very anomalous setup to have a chance at accumulating frozen and based on the data right now we're not quite at that threshold but it's close. It's a lot better for New England including SNE as they also have a colder climo than we do. If anything else it will really annoy the public who were probably expecting nice mild temperatures in the 50s and 60s end of March/early April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 You need a very anomalous setup to have a chance at accumulating frozen and based on the data right now we're not quite at that threshold but it's close. It's a lot better for New England including SNE as they also have a colder climo than we do. If anything else it will really annoy the public who were probably expecting nice mild temperatures in the 50s and 60s end of March/early April. I think most people are still conditioned to treat mid 40s as warm based on last month, so we will manage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 We are within 100 or so miles of that progged 0C surface line, in the latter half of March, at 240 hrs out, with the 500mb map looking borderline. The setup is borderline, at BEST. Some of you are pretending we live in southern Quebec or something. By March 20th, you need a -10 or greater departure just to average freezing (combined high/low). Your average high is in the low 50s by that point. Do the math.The 0 line at 850 is down near the SC border . ( Which is roughly 600 miles from KNYC ) but what`s 500 miles when opining something dumb .What makes the set up GREAT is when you see - 10 air at 850 and BLOCKING , you would just cool the entire column if a SW got cut off and trapped . If you posted this on another board where there 25 METS discussing this , I swear you be laughed off the board . I will be kind and tell you that you are blocking the trough underneath for the better part of 10 days and if something comes through the flow the warm air to the S will help deepen any system . You guys do not understand what a look like that could produce and continue to huddle in your own little dunce sphere worrying about the calendar . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Looks borderline to me. 540 thickness line straddles the northern most part of the metro area. This is misleading a few times over, but most notably, that map shows 500 mb heights, not 1000-500 thicknesses (the one that has operational implications on p-type). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 The 0 line at 850 is down near the SC border . ( Which is roughly 600 miles from KNYC ) but what`s 500 miles when opining something dumb . What makes the set up GREAT is when you see - 10 air at 850 and BLOCKING , you would just cool the entire column if a SW got cut off and trapped . If you posted this on another board where there 25 METS discussing this , I swear you be laughed off the board . I will be kind and tell you that you are blocking the trough underneath for the better part of 10 days and if something comes through the flow the warm air to the S will help deepen any system . You guys do not understand what a look like that could produce and continue is your own little dunce sphere about the calendar . You do not understand what you are looking at . Did you even read my post. Did you miss where I said SURFACE? Yes I realize the 850 temps are down there. Let's see what it looks like within 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Did you even read my post. Did you miss where I said SURFACE? Yes I realize the 850 temps are down there. Let's see what it looks like within 72 hrs. F the surface if there is not precip .... The set up is ripe for something to get cut off . You are looking at -10 departures for 10 days . ok so 40 degrees and sunny is a win , that's great . But any SW that comes through the flow is liable to get stuck and blowup . That`s the set up That is not marginal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 F the surface if there is not precip .... The set up is ripe for something to get cut off . You are looking at -10 departures for 10 days . ok so 40 degrees and sunny is a win , that's great . But any SW that comes through the flow is liable to get stuck and blowup . That`s the set up That is not marginal It's late March and we're south of New England. It's marginal by definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Hell even HM has been honking for something big between 3/20-3/25. This has a legit shot folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 PB you gotta be careful man...you're a few more capitalized words and a misspell here and there away from having yor posts mistaken for DT's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 It's late March and we're south of New England. It's marginal by definition. Dude , I beg you , please stop wasting everyone`s time and go look at the guidance . What can you prove ? Show us how the models don`t see a 7 SD move lower in the AO Show us how the MJO isn`t amped in phase 7-8 , Show us that - 10 air at 850 does not get stuck under higher connected heights in the upper latitudes . Show us that the 500mb maps are not epic by any MET standards Show us how the models are not seeing -10 NEGS for 10 days . When you see blocking like that , all one needs is the surface to respond . Nothing else should matter . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 PB you gotta be careful man...you're a few more capitalized words and a misspell here and there away from having yor posts mistaken for DT's My track record is better than his . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 I'm taking the "I'll believe it when I see it" road. The trend all season has been drier and weaker and I see no reason why any of that would change now. Too many times we've been fooled into thinking that the pattern would make a major flip into a blocking regime and all Winter it's ended up either being transient or hasn't happened. Forgive me for being a debbie downer, but it's hard to ignore seasonal trends, especially when climo is becoming increasingly unfavorable each day that passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 I'm taking the "I'll believe it when I see it" road. The trend all season has been drier and weaker and I see no reason why any of that would change now. Too many times we've been fooled into thinking that the pattern would make a major flip into a blocking regime and all Winter it's ended up either being transient or hasn't happened. Forgive me for being a debbie downer, but it's hard to ignore seasonal trends, especially when climo is becoming increasingly unfavorable each day that passes. We have never had any sustained block modeled or realized all winter and now every model sees it in a big way. I'm in wait and see mode, too, but am not applying any seasonal trends to this upcoming situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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