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Mar 10 - Easter Weekend model/threat discussion thread


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The Canadian tries to pull a rabbit out of hat with the leftover UL energy. This could be what the wetter GEFS members were showing

I_nw_g1_EST_2015031012_120.png

its clearly showing a chance of a norlun setup. Two years ago we had a norlun setup in NYC that dropped a few inches in March. Don't exactly know the date but even the GFS 18z is showing this possibility with a couple of inches of snow. I think from here and on, the models will start showing a potential norlun and a snowier forecast for Sunday night!
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its clearly showing a chance of a norlun setup. Two years ago we had a norlun setup in NYC that dropped a few inches in March. Don't exactly know the date but even the GFS 18z is showing this possibility with a couple of inches of snow. I think from here and on, the models will start showing a potential norlun and a snowier forecast for Sunday night!

Based on what?
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its clearly showing a chance of a norlun setup. Two years ago we had a norlun setup in NYC that dropped a few inches in March. Don't exactly know the date but even the GFS 18z is showing this possibility with a couple of inches of snow. I think from here and on, the models will start showing a potential norlun and a snowier forecast for Sunday night!

Based on what?
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Based on what?

based on models man. Honestly I don't appreciate people responding like this based on what. Look at the models next time yourself. Like Anthony said earlier and snowski yesterday this spring like we've had the last few days will just be a tease as next week looks to be downright cold for this time of the year. Look at the model runs next time 38ec5fd6a721fd9d0a171ce8a5414fe4.jpg6a644260a03d8a613768b2c2ce3bb385.jpg29ef859d763e8bf5b22440cce3a8ce4a.jpg182f5f9c6406410f5f387643b7eb30ca.jpg

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its clearly showing a chance of a norlun setup. Two years ago we had a norlun setup in NYC that dropped a few inches in March. Don't exactly know the date but even the GFS 18z is showing this possibility with a couple of inches of snow. I think from here and on, the models will start showing a potential norlun and a snowier forecast for Sunday night!

Explain why it will show a norlun.

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based on models man. Honestly I don't appreciate people responding like this based on what. Look at the models next time yourself. Like Anthony said earlier and snowski yesterday this spring like we've had the last few days will just be a tease as next week looks to be downright cold for this time of the year. Look at the model runs next time 38ec5fd6a721fd9d0a171ce8a5414fe4.jpg6a644260a03d8a613768b2c2ce3bb385.jpg29ef859d763e8bf5b22440cce3a8ce4a.jpg182f5f9c6406410f5f387643b7eb30ca.jpg

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Cmon dude. Really?

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Despite a cold comeback there's no storm out there so it would mainly just be below normal for a few days and merely hold off spring.

Unfortunate because all the signals are there for something interesting.

As bad a post as this one is it will never beat your post in early FEB when you posted " not another tenth of an inch of snow will fall this winter "

Then 30 fell inside the month and you erased the post.

A few things. This is not a few days but probably a couple of weeks. There is the potential for 2 threats over the next 12 days.

Hang in there enjoy this warm wet week. You are not done yet.

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As bad a post as this one is it will never beat your post in early FEB when you posted " not another tenth of an inch of snow will fall this winter "

Then 30 fell inside the month and you erased the post.

A few things. This is not a few days but probably a couple of weeks. There is the potential for 2 threats over the next 12 days.

Hang in there enjoy this warm wet week. You are not done yet.

 

While not buying the 6z GFS 288 hr verbatim yet, the 500 mb pattern says something like that could 

happen if a piece of energy is forced underneath the impressive late March blocking pattern.

 

 

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Despite a cold comeback there's no storm out there so it would mainly just be below normal for a few days and merely hold off spring.

Unfortunate because all the signals are there for something interesting.

Never good to make definite statements with the weather :whistle:

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While not buying the 6z GFS 288 hr verbatim yet, the 500 mb pattern says something like that could 

happen if a piece of energy is forced underneath the impressive late March blocking pattern.

 

attachicon.gifecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

 

attachicon.gifgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_44.png

It's such a great looking pattern at 500 and looks to go for 10 to 15 days .

The hope is the surface responds. I did guarantee colder than normal so I will have to wear that one.

I saw 114 and 288 this AM . We just need 1 to come through the flow and get stuck under the block. But that part of the forecast is always the harder of the 2 to pull off.

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It's such a great looking pattern at 500 and looks to go for 10 to 15 days .

The hope is the surface responds. I did guarantee colder than normal so I will have to wear that one.

I saw 114 and 288 this AM . We just need 1 to come through the flow and get stuck under the block. But that part of the forecast is always the harder of the 2 to pull off.

 

Yeah,I also liked the return to colder since the long range guidance started going there back in late February.

Hopefully, the biggest AO drop of the season as it's currently modeled produces another accumulating snow.

The potential is there but we have to see if that good surface response materializes like you mentioned.

 

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Yeah,I also liked the return to colder since the long range guidance started going there back in late February.

Hopefully, the biggest AO drop of the season as it's currently modeled produces another accumulating snow.

The potential is there but we have to see if that good surface response materializes like you mentioned.

 

attachicon.gifao.sprd2.gif

Close to a 7 SD move in 10 days . Not something we see everyday . 

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It's such a great looking pattern at 500 and looks to go for 10 to 15 days .

The hope is the surface responds. I did guarantee colder than normal so I will have to wear that one.

I saw 114 and 288 this AM . We just need 1 to come through the flow and get stuck under the block. But that part of the forecast is always the harder of the 2 to pull off.

It's definitely loaded with potential as the 6Z GFS showed, but we'll need a little more time and need to see the ideas on other models in order to know whether or not the surface will respond this way.  I think much colder weather is a given from the 17th or 18th onward for most of the remainder of the month and possibly going into the first 7-10 days of April.

WX/PT

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