SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 The Canadian tries to pull a rabbit out of hat with the leftover UL energy. This could be what the wetter GEFS members were showing its clearly showing a chance of a norlun setup. Two years ago we had a norlun setup in NYC that dropped a few inches in March. Don't exactly know the date but even the GFS 18z is showing this possibility with a couple of inches of snow. I think from here and on, the models will start showing a potential norlun and a snowier forecast for Sunday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 its clearly showing a chance of a norlun setup. Two years ago we had a norlun setup in NYC that dropped a few inches in March. Don't exactly know the date but even the GFS 18z is showing this possibility with a couple of inches of snow. I think from here and on, the models will start showing a potential norlun and a snowier forecast for Sunday night!Based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 its clearly showing a chance of a norlun setup. Two years ago we had a norlun setup in NYC that dropped a few inches in March. Don't exactly know the date but even the GFS 18z is showing this possibility with a couple of inches of snow. I think from here and on, the models will start showing a potential norlun and a snowier forecast for Sunday night!Based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Based on what?based on models man. Honestly I don't appreciate people responding like this based on what. Look at the models next time yourself. Like Anthony said earlier and snowski yesterday this spring like we've had the last few days will just be a tease as next week looks to be downright cold for this time of the year. Look at the model runs next time Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Anything on Sunday looks like a cold rain with maybe a few wet flakes at the very end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Can somebody give TonySnow whatever a time out. A Norlun trough with snow, WTF? Are we looking at different maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 its clearly showing a chance of a norlun setup. Two years ago we had a norlun setup in NYC that dropped a few inches in March. Don't exactly know the date but even the GFS 18z is showing this possibility with a couple of inches of snow. I think from here and on, the models will start showing a potential norlun and a snowier forecast for Sunday night! Explain why it will show a norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 12z Euro has some interesting looks at H5 once we get beyond this weekend, doesn't look boring E168.png E240.png Looks interesting if you like severe cold in mid-late March. The surface never sets up quite right for a major winter storm event here....but that may change. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 based on models man. Honestly I don't appreciate people responding like this based on what. Look at the models next time yourself. Like Anthony said earlier and snowski yesterday this spring like we've had the last few days will just be a tease as next week looks to be downright cold for this time of the year. Look at the model runs next time Sent from my iPhone Cmon dude. Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 11, 2015 Author Share Posted March 11, 2015 6z gfs is snowy for later Sunday/Monday after the first rain/warm system pushes through... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 6z GFS gets a for this solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 The ice is finally gone from NY harbor. Who won the "when will the ice go out on New York harbor contest?" Oh wait, we didn't have one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Who won the "when will the ice go out on New York harbor contest?" Oh wait, we didn't have one? I accidentally deleted it, but checking out the trash can, yep. I won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Despite a cold comeback there's no storm out there so it would mainly just be below normal for a few days and merely hold off spring. Unfortunate because all the signals are there for something interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Despite a cold comeback there's no storm out there so it would mainly just be below normal for a few days and merely hold off spring. Unfortunate because all the signals are there for something interesting. As bad a post as this one is it will never beat your post in early FEB when you posted " not another tenth of an inch of snow will fall this winter " Then 30 fell inside the month and you erased the post. A few things. This is not a few days but probably a couple of weeks. There is the potential for 2 threats over the next 12 days. Hang in there enjoy this warm wet week. You are not done yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 As bad a post as this one is it will never beat your post in early FEB when you posted " not another tenth of an inch of snow will fall this winter " Then 30 fell inside the month and you erased the post. A few things. This is not a few days but probably a couple of weeks. There is the potential for 2 threats over the next 12 days. Hang in there enjoy this warm wet week. You are not done yet. While not buying the 6z GFS 288 hr verbatim yet, the 500 mb pattern says something like that could happen if a piece of energy is forced underneath the impressive late March blocking pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Despite a cold comeback there's no storm out there so it would mainly just be below normal for a few days and merely hold off spring. Unfortunate because all the signals are there for something interesting. Never good to make definite statements with the weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 While not buying the 6z GFS 288 hr verbatim yet, the 500 mb pattern says something like that could happen if a piece of energy is forced underneath the impressive late March blocking pattern. ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_44.png It's such a great looking pattern at 500 and looks to go for 10 to 15 days . The hope is the surface responds. I did guarantee colder than normal so I will have to wear that one. I saw 114 and 288 this AM . We just need 1 to come through the flow and get stuck under the block. But that part of the forecast is always the harder of the 2 to pull off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 It's such a great looking pattern at 500 and looks to go for 10 to 15 days . The hope is the surface responds. I did guarantee colder than normal so I will have to wear that one. I saw 114 and 288 this AM . We just need 1 to come through the flow and get stuck under the block. But that part of the forecast is always the harder of the 2 to pull off. Yeah,I also liked the return to colder since the long range guidance started going there back in late February. Hopefully, the biggest AO drop of the season as it's currently modeled produces another accumulating snow. The potential is there but we have to see if that good surface response materializes like you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Yeah,I also liked the return to colder since the long range guidance started going there back in late February. Hopefully, the biggest AO drop of the season as it's currently modeled produces another accumulating snow. The potential is there but we have to see if that good surface response materializes like you mentioned. ao.sprd2.gif Close to a 7 SD move in 10 days . Not something we see everyday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Close to a 7 SD move in 10 days . Not something we see everyday . Yeah, we were discussing that extreme move in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 I was just saying it doesn't mean anything will happen at the surface though I still feel something might get going. The CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts are below normal for both temps and precip right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 It's such a great looking pattern at 500 and looks to go for 10 to 15 days . The hope is the surface responds. I did guarantee colder than normal so I will have to wear that one. I saw 114 and 288 this AM . We just need 1 to come through the flow and get stuck under the block. But that part of the forecast is always the harder of the 2 to pull off. It's definitely loaded with potential as the 6Z GFS showed, but we'll need a little more time and need to see the ideas on other models in order to know whether or not the surface will respond this way. I think much colder weather is a given from the 17th or 18th onward for most of the remainder of the month and possibly going into the first 7-10 days of April. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 The closed ULL is stronger but further Northeast on the 12z GFS. Hit for C and NNE and not much elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 11, 2015 Author Share Posted March 11, 2015 Fantasy land, but what a set-up on Mar 20/21 for a major winter storm on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 The pattern moving forward on the gfs is just amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 Fantasy land, but what a set-up on Mar 20/21 for a major winter storm on the GFS...Good setup but does anything actually happen? Lots of questions, temps are definitely going below normal however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 First time I'm seeing gfs hint at something during the colder period. Today could be the warmest day until mid April if the pattern ends up as depicted. Also if we don't hit 60 today there's a really good chance we don't hit it at all this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2015 Share Posted March 11, 2015 EURO MJO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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