MJO812 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 I was more giddy on this pattern producing a large scale storm when the upper level energy was forecasted to drop into the trough over the plains and reinforce the large closed ULL. Now this has evolved into a weaker ULL, an elongated trough and a northern stream shortwave that doesn't dig nearly deep enough. So the end result appears to be an unraveling ULL with some gulf moisture injection that will ultimately get sheared out and shunted East by the approaching northern stream energy. The strong blocking high that was showing up about five days ago is now nothing more than a distant memory. Overall, very meh and very disappointing. Uh? The models always had a change to colder weather after the 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 It is a forecast backed up by the guidance . No one is certain that it has to snow , but some of you don`t understand what 500 mb patterns like this yield . Too many are stuck on the Calender and not the atmosphere and it`s response and that is an awful approach to solving weather . I just got done reading " I doubt the models are right " . There is too much on front of us to simply dismiss it . It is a potential pattern that could yield a late season cut off that will matter . We are on the verge of turning into spring , but that looks to be 20 days away before we finally put this winter weather behind us . People dont want to accept the fact that this upcoming pattern has a chance of producing accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Uh? The models always had a change to colder weather after the 18. I'm focused on this weekend. Go back and look at the first page. At least we should still get over an inch of rain this weekend, but at one point it was modeled to be a much larger scale event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 I'm focused on this weekend. Go back and look at the first page. At least we should still get over an inch of rain this weekend, but at one point it was modeled to be a much larger scale event. Yep. Too much phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Yep. Too much phasing. At this point I'm done with snow/winter weather. I'm hopeful to cash in on some big rainers this cut off season after last Springs snooze fest. I don't even need a lot of rain out of the system, would just be nice to get an intense system instead of all the weak sauce that has been the theme for months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Uh? The models always had a change to colder weather after the 18.It looks like 3/20 is when the "colder" pattern is projected to begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Rain or snow, same general theme of a sharp cut off North of High Point continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 colder pattern? I doubt the models are right. Spring is in the air guys. No more snow! I doubt we get another inch. We may get some snow showers and flurries as these upcoming systems wind down but a full blown snowstorm I highly doubt it. It's so against the odds. Enjoy spring though While you're right about climo, your pattern recognition is god awful. Just look at the long range on the models. -EPO , +PNA and -AO/-NAO. It's screaming something big regardless of precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 The 12z GGEM has joined the rest of the guidance with a much wetter, not white solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 What a difference a few days makes Friday's 12z GFS Current 12z GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 The Canadian tries to pull a rabbit out of hat with the leftover UL energy. This could be what the wetter GEFS members were showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Euro shifted North and is a bit wetter for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Euro shifted North and is a bit wetter for tonight how about the weekend system on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Euro is wetter for the weekend. Widespread 1-2" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 The Euro also has 2-4" NW of the NYC on the front end and as much as 5-6" for the far interior of NE PA and Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Euro is wetter for the weekend. Widespread 1-2" amounts. say goodbye to the pack. (what's left of it by then anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 say goodbye to the pack. (what's left of it by then anyway) Once it starts going - snowcone consistency, doggie pee spots, plant particulate - I really have no interest in keeping it around. Last Friday, different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 say goodbye to the pack. (what's left of it by then anyway) I don't know about that, right now I think we're below that threshold. I would expect widespread minor flooding with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Once it starts going - snowcone consistency, doggie pee spots, plant particulate - I really have no interest in keeping it around. Last Friday, different story. Get rid of this dastardly mess! Bring on a new snow-cover!! I wonder if the Euro has anything in so far as snow on the back-end of this weekend's storm. I will have the maps in 15 minutes. I think the focus per the GGEM should be more on the back-end than the front-end if anything. The rest is lots of rain. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Once it starts going - snowcone consistency, doggie pee spots, plant particulate - I really have no interest in keeping it around. Last Friday, different story. yeah, it's pretty gross looking around here. It's mostly ice crystals at this point versus snow. I tossed an old apple out in the back yard for the birds and it literally bounced off the glacier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Still a huge variance among the individual GEFS members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Get rid of this dastardly mess! Bring on a new snow-cover!! I wonder if the Euro has anything in so far as snow on the back-end of this weekend's storm. I will have the maps in 15 minutes. I think the focus per the GGEM should be more on the back-end than the front-end if anything. The rest is lots of rain. WX/PT It has a few inches on the front end N&W and nothing on the backend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 The ice is finally gone from NY harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 12z Euro has some interesting looks at H5 once we get beyond this weekend, doesn't look boring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 colder pattern? I doubt the models are right. Spring is in the air guys. No more snow! I doubt we get another inch. We may get some snow showers and flurries as these upcoming systems wind down but a full blown snowstorm I highly doubt it. It's so against the odds. Enjoy spring thoughHardly! Its snowed end of march even beginning of April many many times even here in CNJ! All you weather geeks should be able to more than bear this out "factoidly"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Hardly! Its snowed end of march even beginning of April many many times even here in CNJ! All you weather geeks should be able to more than bear this out "factoidly"! no I know that it could snow well into April. In fact we had snow just last April here measured over an inch in my areas. The teleconnections may be the only thing that could help us in achieving a snowstorm in our area this time of the year. Those will be favorable and I hope we can get a snowstorm I would love that but it's against all odds. We would need a really dynamic low pressure (nor'easter) to get the job done before that we need a strong cold front and a strong high pressure centered around Montreal, Canada. It could happen sometime next week! I hope it does lol take care sir!Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 18z GFS taking a big step towards the GGEM with a more prolonged event. Nearly 2" of rain from NYC and points South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 The closed ULL almost passes overhead but not much precip associated with it as the surface low is near Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Dense fog advisory in effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted March 10, 2015 Share Posted March 10, 2015 Dense fog advisory in effectNot good if you want to maintain the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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