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Mar 10 - Easter Weekend model/threat discussion thread


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  On 3/29/2015 at 5:49 PM, doncat said:

This will probably finish as the 2nd coldest March at my station going back to 1977, with only 1984 colder.

 

 

Through today I'm at a 36.4F mean, -4.7 below normal. That mean temperature is more akin to December's normal.

 

Impressive stretch of cold means since November:

 

Nov: 43.2

Dec: 40.2

Jan: 29.0

Feb: 22.2

Mar: 36.4

 

That's a 5-month mean of 34.2F (-3.3 departure), and a meteorological winter DJF mean of 30.5F (-2.9 departure).

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  On 3/29/2015 at 6:09 PM, Isotherm said:

Through today I'm at a 36.4F mean, -4.7 below normal. That mean temperature is more akin to December's normal.

 

Impressive stretch of cold means since November:

 

Nov: 43.2

Dec: 40.2

Jan: 29.0

Feb: 22.2

Mar: 36.4

 

That's a 5-month mean of 34.2F (-3.3 departure), and a meteorological winter DJF mean of 30.5F (-2.9 departure).

Will easily be the coldest Jan-Mar period here...about 1 degree lower than 1978.
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  On 3/29/2015 at 6:28 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Crazy differences and this March we actually had the snow to go along with the well below average temperatures.

 

It finally let us add a top ten snowiest March to the previous October-February top tens since 2010.

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Albany seems keen to toss the snowier solutions even way up here. I think for this event you really want some meaningful elevation... or a sharper shortwave trough I guess.

 

  Quote

WHILE ON PAPER IT LOOKS COLD
ENOUGH FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW...THAT FACT THAT IT IS
NEARLY APRIL...THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT COLD...AND MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL DURING THE DAY ALLOWING SOLAR INFLUENCE
THROUGH THE CLOUDS...PTYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE.

 

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  On 3/30/2015 at 2:30 PM, Zelocita Weather said:

Outside of boundary layer, 12z NAM looks good for snow in N/C NJ & NYC. Around 0.5" LE and 850s cold throughout. Track of clipper a little further south as well.

Sucks the bl is warm. Could have been a few inches. Looks like a mix.

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  On 3/30/2015 at 3:07 PM, Snow88 said:

Sucks the bl is warm. Could have been a few inches. Looks like a mix.

The boundary layer and thicknesses are a huge issue even for areas nw of nyc. Even if wet snow falls it ain't accumulating. Ratios will suck and precip rates are very light
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  On 3/30/2015 at 4:18 PM, Snow88 said:

Easter storm is warm. This epic pattern is going to fail.

 

Snow admittedly It's not looking good for Brooklyn. There's still wiggle room in there but not much for you.

 

Well N and W I still think has a shot, it's still 5 days off and this path isn't set in stone yet. If you take todays runs just about everyone sees rain.

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  On 3/30/2015 at 4:18 PM, Snow88 said:

Easter storm is warm. This epic pattern is going to fail.

 

We had one of our coldest months on record (which is insane for the 21st Century) and a top 10 snowy March (and the park got another 50"+ winter).  What on Earth are you complaining about?

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