doncat Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 On 3/23/2015 at 7:05 PM, bluewave said: The Euro brings the next chance for spring temperatures in around April 1st going against cooler previous long range forecasts since it now takes the MJO into a mild phase 3 for early April. ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif AprilPhase3all500mb.gif ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png Euro has been showing ridging in the east in the long range, quite a bit since last summer and it hasn't worked out that way often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 On 3/23/2015 at 7:05 PM, bluewave said: The Euro brings the next chance for spring temperatures in around April 1st going against cooler previous long range forecasts since it now takes the MJO into a mild phase 3 for early April. ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif AprilPhase3all500mb.gif ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png If that's correct and we do in fact see an amplified MJO wave in phase 3 then it could become quite mild up and down the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 As the trough backs up the ridge on the EC will begin to fire in about 2 weeks. Once backed up look for the mean storm track to be to the lakes kicking off the start of the severe weather season . I would not expect April to be very mild as the SST profile is cold enough where back door cold fronts will shunt any long term heat. However I think we could hit 80 before April is through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 On 3/23/2015 at 7:33 PM, PB GFI said: As the trough backs up the ridge on the EC will begin to fire in about 2 weeks. Once backed up look for the mean storm track to be to the lakes kicking off the start of the severe weather season . I would not expect April to be very mild as the SST profile is cold enough where back door cold fronts will shunt any long term heat. However I think we could hit 80 before April is through. Nice job this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 On 3/23/2015 at 7:34 PM, USCG RS said: Nice job this winter. Thank you very much my man. Stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 We'll see that is still weeks away and pattern looks transient. Could see a mix of mild and cool days once the pattern breaks. The pacific pattern isn't going anywhere so there will be opportunities for cold shots to keep swinging through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 On 3/23/2015 at 6:46 PM, jm1220 said: Ouch, that'll be one nasty sea breeze. Temps in the 40s on winds over 20 mph. It's going to be ugly for those folks deep into May, glad I don't live there. I could see several days where it's in the 60/70s in NJ and 40s near the coast and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 On 3/23/2015 at 7:05 PM, bluewave said: The Euro brings the next chance for spring temperatures in around April 1st going against cooler previous long range forecasts since it now takes the MJO into a mild phase 3 for early April. ECMF_phase_51m_full.gif AprilPhase3all500mb.gif ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png If we have an amplitude of > 1, phase 3 yields a cool signal in April. Additionally, phase 3 off the CPC website suggests a cool signal for the period centered on April (MAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 On 3/23/2015 at 7:48 PM, SnoSki14 said: It's going to be ugly for those folks deep into May, glad I don't live there. I could see several days where it's in the 60/70s in NJ and 40s near the coast and LI.Yeah, it's going to be a nasty spring, possibly past Memorial Day for the coast. Backdoor season should be bad too once the highs get going over the Maritimes. Glad I'm not there anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 23, 2015 Author Share Posted March 23, 2015 I'm calling it, snow/winter over. Made my snow total final in my signature...on to 15/16' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 I doubt areas away from the immediate coast are done with accumulating snow. For NYC and immediate vicinity, yea it's probably over. If you have some elevation though, I don't think calling for snow in April is terribly outlandish (in any year, really). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 On 3/23/2015 at 9:40 PM, jm1220 said: Yeah, it's going to be a nasty spring, possibly past Memorial Day for the coast. Backdoor season should be bad too once the highs get going over the Maritimes. Glad I'm not there anymore. What are you saying here.. Long Island will be cold and nasty right in to June? Or just places on the south shore and the shore of NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 On 3/24/2015 at 12:42 AM, marsplex said: What are you saying here.. Long Island will be cold and nasty right in to June? Or just places on the south shore and the shore of NJ Isn't the south shore on long Island? I'm confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 On 3/24/2015 at 12:59 AM, seanick said: Isn't the south shore on long Island? I'm confused There is normally a huge difference in temperature in the springtime between the north and south shores of Long Island. I've personally experienced temps in the upper 50s here whilst near 80 in centereach. If there is a strong southerly wind, temps are much closer but still 5 to 10 degrees higher at the north shore. Especially early in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 On 3/24/2015 at 12:59 AM, seanick said: Isn't the south shore on long Island? I'm confused Yeah dude, im talking the south shore of Long Island and the Jersey coast. Regardless i live on the North Shore of Long Island and have completely different weather than the South Shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 On 3/24/2015 at 1:54 AM, marsplex said: Yeah dude, im talking the south shore of Long Island and the Jersey coast. Regardless i live on the North Shore of Long Island and have completely different weather than the South Shore. Not doubting that, your post just wasn't clear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 On 3/24/2015 at 1:54 AM, marsplex said: Yeah dude, im talking the south shore of Long Island and the Jersey coast. Regardless i live on the North Shore of Long Island and have completely different weather than the South Shore. Spring will be like most springs on Long Island...some cool days, some warm ones...you sound as if you recently re-located here....and the weather between the N. & S. Shores is not "completely" different; it is a little different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 On 3/23/2015 at 9:40 PM, jm1220 said: Yeah, it's going to be a nasty spring, possibly past Memorial Day for the coast. Backdoor season should be bad too once the highs get going over the Maritimes. Glad I'm not there anymore. Was just looking at some of the buoys. Water is 35-36. Still so cold. South shore spring will lag a month behind everywhere else this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 statistically we are over due for a cold April and cool May...it's possible it can happen this year...It certainly has gotten off to a cold start... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 On 3/24/2015 at 2:32 AM, Pamela said: Spring will be like most springs on Long Island...some cool days, some warm ones...you sound as if you recently re-located here....and the weather between the N. & S. Shores is not "completely" different; it is a little different. Been here for 40 years, i have had 15" of snow and the south shore has had 5", it had been 80 here and 60 there. What i mean to say is for where we live i think there can be a large diversity in the weather even on the same day, think Long Island needs way more detailed weather forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 On 3/24/2015 at 2:36 AM, uncle W said: statistically we are over due for a cold April and cool May...it's possible it can happen this year...It certainly has gotten off to a cold start... Yeah well nobody wants that. With the end of the snows and ice i hope the rest of the snow clowns go with it till next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 On 3/24/2015 at 3:33 AM, marsplex said: Been here for 40 years, i have had 15" of snow and the south shore has had 5", it had been 80 here and 60 there. What i mean to say is for where we live i think there can be a large diversity in the weather even on the same day, think Long Island needs way more detailed weather forecasts. If you've lived here 40 years; you realize that the most brilliant forecaster who ever lived would be hard pressed to give you any semblance of a cogent answer as to whether or not it will be wet & cold into June - it is a question that cannot be answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 On 3/24/2015 at 3:37 AM, Pamela said: If you've lived here 40 years; you realize that the most brilliant forecaster who ever lived would be hard pressed to give you any semblance of a cogent answer as to whether or not it will be wet & cold into June - it is a question that cannot be answered. Its like in Groundhog Day...Bill Murray is coming out of his room at the bed & breakfast...and the guy he meets on the stairs says to him every morning, "Do you think it will be an early spring?" Apart from the impossibility of making some determinative forecast regarding the matter...we also need to address the overall subjectivity of the inquiry. What in fact constitutes an "early spring"...i.e. can it be empirically determined & defined? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Is that an inverted trough 0z GFS is showing for Saturday? With temps possibly not making it out of the 30s, it would probably be cold enough for snow. GFS now has .25 of precip for eastern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 Pretty much moving on with winter, I would watch the Saturday event very closely, but wouldn't put to much stock into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 April 5 storm still on the GFS. We track =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 On 3/23/2015 at 7:16 PM, doncat said: Euro has been showing ridging in the east in the long range, quite a bit since last summer and it hasn't worked out that way often. That's why it's probably better to go more conservative long range and expect a few spring days mixed in but recognize that the trough will probably return in the means near the Northeast or just offshore for our famous back door spring days. The trough has been a mainstay in the means since last October and the SST patterns now reflect this with the record +PDO due to the record -EPO into +PNA ridging continuing. Even as the PV pulls north for spring, a piece of the trough will probably remain near of just east of us. The SST's are so cold that S to SW flow days where the city and west warms will be cool over Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 On 3/24/2015 at 5:06 AM, Thunder7842 said: Is that an inverted trough 0z GFS is showing for Saturday? With temps possibly not making it out of the 30s, it would probably be cold enough for snow. GFS now has .25 of precip for eastern sections.Don't hold your breath lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 On 3/23/2015 at 7:33 PM, PB GFI said: As the trough backs up the ridge on the EC will begin to fire in about 2 weeks. Once backed up look for the mean storm track to be to the lakes kicking off the start of the severe weather season . I would not expect April to be very mild as the SST profile is cold enough where back door cold fronts will shunt any long term heat. However I think we could hit 80 before April is through. I agree with a lot of this. If some past seasons that experienced substantial snowfall are representative, very warm temperatures occurred during the second half of April, often during the closing 10 days of the month. Three examples: 1956: April 28: 84° 1960: April 25: 87° 1996: April 23: 85° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 24, 2015 Share Posted March 24, 2015 On 3/24/2015 at 3:57 PM, donsutherland1 said: I agree with a lot of this. If some past seasons that experienced substantial snowfall are representative, very warm temperatures occurred during the second half of April, often during the closing 10 days of the month. Three examples: 1956: April 28: 84° 1960: April 25: 87° 1996: April 23: 85° Thanks Don ,I think we may see our first T storms S and W Thursday as a pretty strong cold front passes through the area . SPC thinks it is Marginal at best . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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