Zelocita Weather Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 GFS continues to show an huge battle between a monster arctic high and a large moisture laden storm shoving right into it at day 8-9 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 What's the status of the EPO relative to what it's been the last six weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Massive cut off low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Enjoy the next few days of dry weather because those are going to be the "Only one's you got" for the foreseeable future. Starting with the system for early next week. Models currently have this skating by just to the South of the area but this system has continued to tick further and further North. Currently the confluence from the system over Northern Canada wants to keep us dry, and while that's a possibility, things look unsettled to say the least. Then by next weekend, all eyes will be on the East coast as a system cuts off over the TN Valley. This current run of the GFS (3/6 12z) Sends plenty of snow/ice/rain into the area. As a matter of fact, the GFS is spitting out 10-20" over CT and LI and >4" areawide. With strong high pressure anchored over NNE and a cut off low over the TN Valley, good times are ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 6, 2015 Author Share Posted March 6, 2015 Not sure about the early week system, as that looks like rain anywho, but starting late next Friday into Sunday, that could be one hell of a set-up for something. Just give me 3" more inches for the season and I am done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 A lot of our most historical systems involved a closed 500mb low over TN/KY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Sign me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 If that high stays anchored over NNE at that strength with moisture flowing in, this could be a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 LOL at the D8-9 GFS. Tries to cut until running into the cold air, how many times are we gonna see that this year? Whether it verifies or not, at least the model recognizes the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 LOL at the D8-9 GFS. Tries to cut until running into the cold air, how many times are we gonna see that this year? Whether it verifies or not, at least the model recognizes the pattern. Correct. Any other year this would be accurately viewed as mere fantasy at this range, but given the pattern in place this year, this potential day 8-9 system has quite a bit more credibility... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Correct. Any other year this would be accurately viewed as mere fantasy at this range, but given the pattern in place this year, this potential day 8-9 system has quite a bit more credibility...12z ggem or UKMET show anything similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Correct. Any other year this would be accurately viewed as mere fantasy at this range, but given the pattern in place this year, this potential day 8-9 system has quite a bit more credibility... The way the models have handled the pattern, might actually be better seeing this make it all the way to Toronto at this range rather than the mixed bag it shows for the region as modeled. If past results are indicative of future outcomes, this could end up as frozen for Richmond and leaving us high and dry or... (insert weenie wishcasting emoticon here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 12z ggem or UKMET show anything similar?ukmet doesn't go to day 10+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 12z ECMWF has rain for the area on Tuesday. Somewhere around 0.25"+ Not a big deal, but this has been trending North for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 If that high stays anchored over NNE at that strength with moisture flowing in, this could be a good one. The GFS shows that the high moves out extremely slowly and by the time it does, there's a new cold high moving into its place. Looking at the north Atlantic, I fully expected the high to move out a little faster, but it is intriguing the model is handling this way so that the cold high pressure blocks the storm from making a move up the Appalachians or somewhere inside the coast. This forces the energy transfer which actually happens twice as the system over Kentucky/Tennessee moves so slowly, so not one but two low centers are developed offshore. A fascinating set up, but you know it's not going to end up the way the GFS now shows it. It will change many times on the models. The CMC seems to be more of a suppressed solution. Though the UKMET doesn't go out far enough, it sure does show plenty of cold air available for whatever may happen. Many possibilities here and all options are on the table. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted March 6, 2015 Author Share Posted March 6, 2015 The GFS shows that the high moves out extremely slowly and by the time it does, there's a new cold high moving into its place. Looking at the north Atlantic, I fully expected the high to move out a little faster, but it is intriguing the model is handling this way so that the cold high pressure blocks the storm from making a move up the Appalachians or somewhere inside the coast. This forces the energy transfer which actually happens twice as the system over Kentucky/Tennessee moves so slowly, so not one but two low centers are developed offshore. A fascinating set up, but you know it's not going to end up the way the GFS now shows it. It will change many times on the models. The CMC seems to be more of a suppressed solution. Though the UKMET doesn't go out far enough, it sure does show plenty of cold air available for whatever may happen. Many possibilities here and all options are on the table. WX/PT We'll see how the EURO takes it in a few... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 The gfs entire run looks crazy. Look at that insane -EPO in the LR as we head into late March. We also get a PNA spike once again. I think one of the Mets said that we haven't had anything that signaled a huge change in the regime. Last March we had that huge coastal storm offshore that changed the entire pattern, we have yet to see something like this so the return of the -EPO/+PNA is not that shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 The Euro looks to be trending towards a GFS esque solution. Only out to 150hrs. What I have noticed is that while the globals have struggled with precip placement/storm track/temperature profiles in the long range, and rightfully so, they have done quite well in sniffing out patterns and storm potential, particularly the GFS. With all that being said, confidence, at least for me, is above average in a major system of some sort in the 7-10 day range. Details TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 The gfs entire run looks crazy. Look at that insane -EPO in the LR as we head into late March. We also get a PNA spike once again. I think one of the Mets said that we haven't had anything that signaled a huge change in the regime. Last March we had that huge coastal storm offshore that changed the entire pattern, we have yet to see something like this so the return of the -EPO/+PNA is not that shocking. I'm convinced this pattern is locked through at least the first half of April. Then, we may see a total pattern reversal late in April or early in May. If we don't, it's going to be an extremely chilly wet spring here. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Massive closed 500mb low forming on the Euro day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I'm convinced this pattern is locked through at least the first half of April. Then, we may see a total pattern reversal late in April or early in May. If we don't, it's going to be an extremely chilly wet spring here. WX/PT I see a lot of similarities in terms of sensible weather to Spring 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Massive closed 500mb low forming on the Euro day 7.Nice to hear...something that sucks is that after Sunday we have to wait an extra hour to get the model guidance in for daylight savings time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 A lot of our most historical systems involved a closed 500mb low over TN/KY. Curious if you could reference a couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I see a lot of similarities in terms of sensible weather to Spring 2010. 2010? One of the warmest Springs in the last 50 years. +4.6 at Central Park March-May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Massive closed 500mb low forming on the Euro day 7.Cutoff season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 2010? One of the warmest Springs in the last 50 years. +4.6 at Central Park March-May This led to what I believe was the hottest summer on record too. Crazy hot stretch that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Euro is nothing like the GFS. Looks like rain if you ask me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 My comparison to 2010 is in terms of precipitation/overall storminess. That's why I said sensible weather. Nobody cares and most people wouldn't notice if the average high was 56 instead of 50 during any given period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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