Powerball Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 With the SW drought being all but squashed everywhere but California, the lakes almost completely freezing over and the deep snowcover that has covered the ground for so long across a large part of the eastern US, I would lean towards another less than impressive (read: coolish) Summer. If so, yet again like last season, this will probably keep the potential for major severe weather outbreaks in check. But we'll see. Here is the CFSv2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 jesus h, it's 10 degrees and I still have 45" of snow. I cant even imagine Summer yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Lmao^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Looks like we may have some Nino signal persisting throughout the summer months. How much influence this has, well, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Coin flip forecast: heads above norm/tails below... For LaCrosse: June--above July--below Aug--above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I'm hoping for a hotter summer this year. Last summer we had only a few low 90s, and the gnats were about as bad as I've ever seen. Wasn't hot enough to get rid of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 With a foot of snow and a low of 0 this morning, summer couldn't feel further away right now.The sun's getting warmer though, it makes a huge difference on frigid days like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 7, 2015 Author Share Posted March 7, 2015 With a foot of snow and a low of 0 this morning, summer couldn't feel further away right now. The sun's getting warmer though, it makes a huge difference on frigid days like today. Indeed. Temps around 40*F felt like a legit heatwave compared to what we've had to suffer through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 A repeat of last summer would be great! 2013's summer appeared to be heading toward a similar outcome through June of that year, but July and August each featured a heat wave that year. It will be interesting regardless, if we can get some good spring rains at some point that would help to curb the potential of a warm/hot, dry summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 I'm hoping for a hotter summer this year. Last summer we had only a few low 90s, and the gnats were about as bad as I've ever seen. Wasn't hot enough to get rid of them. Wow...i remember those gnats...they were horrible here. A couple times you couldn't go outside they were so bad. Bring on the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Wow...i remember those gnats...they were horrible here. A couple times you couldn't go outside they were so bad. Bring on the drought. Yeah drought does have it's benefits. Less mowing as well, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polar Vortex 2014 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Not really sold on the snow and ice theory. 1936 had a deep, extensive snow pack (much more expansive than this winter) and near total ice coverage on the Great Lakes, yet remains the hottest summer on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Not really sold on the snow and ice theory. 1936 had a deep, extensive snow pack (much more expansive than this winter) and near total ice coverage on the Great Lakes, yet remains the hottest summer on record. Excellent point. Summer 1934 was quite warm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Not really sold on the snow and ice theory. 1936 had a deep, extensive snow pack (much more expansive than this winter) and near total ice coverage on the Great Lakes, yet remains the hottest summer on record. Man, there must have been some beastly lake breezes there at the start of summer 1936. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted March 15, 2015 Author Share Posted March 15, 2015 Not really sold on the snow and ice theory. 1936 had a deep, extensive snow pack (much more expansive than this winter) and near total ice coverage on the Great Lakes, yet remains the hottest summer on record. I guess a better parallel to that year could actually be 2011, which also had a record breaking hot summer despite a winter with extensive snow/ice cover (BTW, 2010, 2011 and 2012 were all consecutive top 5 hottest summers for Detroit). Of course, one difference I suppose is the extent of the SW drought, as it's not nearly as severe/expansive now as it was in 2011 or 1936. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 One thing about 1936, at least here, is June was actually cool. The heatwave of July 1936 will probably never be matched, but summer indeed started out cool. Perhaps a lingering from the icy winter. Then again, March 1936 was mild and the ground already bare at this latitude by the 1st of the month (Feb was the main brutal month that winter). I think winter ice cover has an effect on summer but not like its make or break. Will be interesting if the Great Lakes finds itself in an isolated pool of below normal temps (ala CFS). Take out the 5-day heatwave of July 2013 and we have had two summers in a row with next to no heat/humidity. Its been awesome, but I dont know if we can pull of a 3rd straight comfortable summer. (then again, we had 3 straight torrid summers, 2010-12). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted March 16, 2015 Share Posted March 16, 2015 I asked this question in the main forum but I'll ask it here too. Does a central/west based Nino favor a different pattern than an east based Nino during the Summer? Also, does a 2nd year Nino favor a different pattern than a developing Nino during the Summer? I don't recall seeing much discussion about this in the past and am kind of curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 A couple summer composites using Nino. The first is all Nino summers and the second is Ninos that were steady state or strengthening, as this one appears to be doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 This el Nino confused me. Wasn't it just declared in march after being talked about all year lol? Is it expected to last to next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 A couple summer composites using Nino. The first is all Nino summers and the second is Ninos that were steady state or strengthening, as this one appears to be doing. Only four of those Nino summers were preceded by a Nino winter (winter strength): 1953 (weak), 1958 (strong), 1969 (moderate), and 1987 (moderate). JJA temperature and precipitation composites of those four individually: You've got a 50/50 split in temperatures (cool/warm)...and precipitation departures are all over the place. Some other pre-1950 Nino summers that followed Nino winters: 1877-78, 1884-85, 1899-00, 1904-05, 1913-14, 1914-15, 1918-19, 1919-20, 1925-26, 1929-30, 1939-40, and 1940-41. Since 1900, here are the Nino winters that had a +PDO for all three months, like this past one...and was followed by a Nino summer. JJA temperature and precipitation composites for those years: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 This el Nino confused me. Wasn't it just declared in march after being talked about all year lol? Is it expected to last to next winter? lol yeah, it took some time. A case of delayed but not denied. Various guidance has it maintaining if not strengthening the rest of the year, but like anything that far out, certainly subject to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Only four of those Nino summers were preceded by a Nino winter (winter strength): 1953 (weak), 1958 (strong), 1969 (moderate), and 1987 (moderate). JJA temperature and precipitation composites of those four individually: JJA 1953 T.png JJA 1953 P.png JJA 1958 T.png JJA 1958 P.png JJA 1969 T.png JJA 1969 P.png JJA 1987 T.png JJA 1987 P.png You've got a 50/50 split in temperatures (cool/warm)...and precipitation departures are all over the place. Some other pre-1950 Nino summers that followed Nino winters: 1877-78, 1884-85, 1899-00, 1904-05, 1913-14, 1914-15, 1918-19, 1919-20, 1925-26, 1929-30, 1939-40, and 1940-41. Since 1900, here are the Nino winters that had a +PDO for all three months, like this past one...and was followed by a Nino summer. JJA temperature and precipitation composites for those years: So basically, look for something else when trying to forecast this summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 lol yeah, it took some time. A case of delayed but not denied. Various guidance has it maintaining if not strengthening the rest of the year, but like anything that far out, certainly subject to change. Remember many (but not all) forecasters and models we're beating the drum for a Super Nino for this past winter, last year. Seems to be a very difficult thing to forecast. So basically, look for something else when trying to forecast this summer? lol, I don't know. Last summer was a much easier forecast to me. Don't have a good feel for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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