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Obs for the Cweat Cape Cod Cruiser anafrontal event 3-5-15


Ginx snewx

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The Carver Ob is old now so it's probably around 5" as well.

 

 

ACUSHNET 5.3 1130 AM 3/05 AMATEUR RADIO

FALL RIVER 5.0 1103 AM 3/05 HAM RADIO

NEW BEDFORD 5.0 1115 AM 3/05 HAM RADIO

EAST FREETOWN 5.0 1036 AM 3/05 HAM RADIO

PLYMOUTH 4.5 1053 AM 3/05 HAM RADIO

MIDDLEBORO 4.0 1144 AM 3/05 HAM RADIO

CARVER 3.3 915 AM 3/05 PUBLIC

Yeah, I measured 4.75 around 12. Starting to pick up again. I will measure again at 1pm.

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Oops...

post-238-0-07771800-1425577410_thumb.png

 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1015 AM UPDATE...UPDATED THE SNOWFALL FORECAST TO UP THE SNOW
AMOUNTS WITHIN A STRONGER BAND THAT SET UP BASICALLY ALONG THE 195
CORRIDOR BETWEEN PROVIDENCE AND THE CAPE. THIS MAY ALLOW THIS AREA
TO GET CLOSE TO OR POSSIBLY EVEN REACH 3 INCHES JUST NORTH OF THE
ADVISORY AREA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THIS WILL OCCUR OR
THAT THE AREA WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING ZONES TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. WILL KEEP HEADLINES AS THEY ARE.

THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW IS VERY TIGHT DESPITE RADAR
REFLECTIVITIES. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY CRASHED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE SNOW BASED ON OBSERVATIONS RUNS ROUGHLY FROM WILLIMANTIC
CONNECTICUT...TO PROVIDENCE RHODE ISLAND AND PLYMOUTH
MASSACHUSETTS.

OTHERWISE...UPDATED TEMPERATURES AS WELL TO ACCOUNT BETTER FOR
THE FALLING TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

TOUGH FORECAST BECAUSE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY MOIST
CONTINUOUS FEED FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO NEW ENGLAND.
THUS...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF RI AND MA. HOWEVER...FARTHER TO THE
NORTH WHERE THE DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE
BOSTON...WORCESTER..AND SPRINGFIELD MAY NOT RECEIVE ANY SNOW. A
FEW FLURRIES AT BEST.

AFTER THE MILD DAY YESTERDAY...TODAY WILL FEEL MUCH COLDER.
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLUNGING TO TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FALLING FROM NEAR 0C THIS MORNING TO -15C BY EVENING. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND MAY HOLD STEADY FOR A
WHILE DURING THE DAY BEFORE PLUNGING TONIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE INITIALLY GUSTY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT AM NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE A WINDY DAY.

MODEL QPF IS QUITE CONSISTENT FOR SOUTHERN RI AND S COASTAL
MA...WITH TOTALS BETWEEN 0.50 AND 0.75 INCHES...SOME OF WHICH HAS
BEEN IN THE FORM OF RAIN AND SLEET. STILL DO GET COMPUTATIONS OF
2 TO 5 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH COASTS OF RI AND MA AND 4 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE ISLANDS...FROM BLOCK ISLAND EASTWARD TO
NANTUCKET. WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FROM
SOUTHERN RI EASTWARD TO CAPE COD. BIG QUESTION HAS BEEN WHETHER TO
LOWER THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO AN ADVISORY FOR THE ISLANDS.
TECHNICALLY ONE NEEDS AN AVERAGE OF 6 INCHES. HOWEVER...SINCE WE
DO HAVE VERY CLOSE TO THOSE AMOUNTS...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE THE
WARNING IN PLACE AS WELL. ONE COULD ARGUE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
ADDITIONAL IMPACT OF A LAYER OF ICE AS THE RAIN FREEZES WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES.

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Yea, maybe I was premature in congratulating box.  The broad strokes concerning the northern end of the storm were correct, but as I mentioned yesterday, I found it strange that they didn't have a more aggressive gradient on the S end.  I think perhaps its a timing issue - they thought more snow would fall as rain, and it wouldn't be snowing at this point as much, so they figured the southern end would balance itself out with a strong early punch.  Instead its been pretty steady with some nice bands, and some areas are going to verify a warning which are in an advisory.  On the details it looks like retrocasting.

 

Also, am I missing something, i would have guessed providence already has 3 inches... and they are saying "it might reach".  Did the radar deceive me, they've been under some decent looking bands.

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Yea, maybe I was premature in congratulating box.  The broad strokes concerning the northern end of the storm were correct, but as I mentioned yesterday, I found it strange that they didn't have a more aggressive gradient on the S end.  I think perhaps its a timing issue - they thought more snow would fall as rain, and it wouldn't be snowing at this point as much, so they figured the southern end would balance itself out with a strong early punch.  Instead its been pretty steady with some nice bands, and some areas are going to verify a warning which are in an advisory.  On the details it looks like retrocasting.

 

You guys always looked good like Will said. Other than maybe some brief mix, it always looked good there. Great banding rapidly makes up for any mix.

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