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OBS: Rain->snow Wednesday night-Thursday, March 4-5 2015


famartin

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RAP very clearly shows RH falling through the afternoon at lower levels. This is what bites you without any real surface low and Arctic air pressing. Even thought returns will look good, I think we are going to see sort've a "reverse process" virga situation continue, where it will look better than it is on the northwest side of the precip.

Is this graphic from SPC related to what you are talking about?

post-884-0-60914300-1425575387_thumb.gif

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Not a "crash" per se, plane skidded off runway after landing and passengers are all supposedly ok and exiting the plane. No fires or explosions or anything like that.

If your car skids off the side of the road in icy conditions damaging your car, would you call that a "crash"?

Edit plus I noted it skidded off runway

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Measured 5.5" at noon in Concord Township, currently 26F. This is now the largest snowfall of the season imby and also puts the winter total over the guesstimate of 30" for seasonal normal. Even better it looks like there's a decent chance of a few more hours of snow. Loving it!

A little over an hour ago I was outside shoveling and the snow was very heavy for about 30 minutes, along with more wind...very cool. Lightened up a bit after that to somewhere between light and moderate, now back to moderate. What a beautiful day!

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Is this graphic from SPC related to what you are talking about?

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Neighbor,

Not explicitly, but it's representative of it. The column that the flakes need to fall through is drying out at 925 and 850 faster than it is aloft. So the crystals are developing and falling through dry air, going from solid to gaseous in the process. As Ray said- that's sublimation. Surface dews are dropping because of the same low level drying, but I was speaking more to the column aloft rather than just surface RH. Check the RAP RH progs at 850 and 925 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=03&model_dd=05&model_init_hh=14&fhour=05&parameter=RH&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

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Neighbor,

Not explicitly, but it's representative of it. The column that the flakes need to fall through is drying out at 925 and 850 faster than it is aloft. So the crystals are developing and falling through dry air, going from solid to gaseous in the process. As Ray said- that's sublimation. Surface dews are dropping because of the same low level drying, but I was speaking more to the column aloft rather than just surface RH. Check the RAP RH progs at 850 and 925 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=03&model_dd=05&model_init_hh=14&fhour=05&parameter=RH&level=850&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false

Thanks

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4" on the ground as of 11:15 am and it's now 27F and snowing moderately.  

 

 5" on the ground as of 12"15 pm, so 1" in the last hour.  Can we get to 8"?  Down to 25F.  

 

Was there a combo of temp and dew point/RH that signals that the CAA has led to virga/sublimation?  Just looking, some of the stations in Warren/Sussex are reporting temps in the 17-18F range, with dp's in the 5F range and RHs of 50-60%, whereas places in Morris/Passaic, where it's still snowing have dp's only 3-4F from the temp and RHs in the 90% range.  Near me it's 25/23/93% RH and ripping snow right now.  

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