CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 1.30" last night and like Dendrite a bit of lightning and thunder. Still some snow in the darkest bogs and hollows. Newfound Lake should have ice out tomorrow. Just big black patches floating around. If we had some wind today it would probably be gone. There has been dark ice for days on our side Winni. No ice out yet. Maybe in a couple of days. Cool fog coming off the ice too. Was cloudy when I left, now sun peeking out in Tilton as I chuck a few towards Dendrite. I also noticed some snow in very protected areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 There has been dark ice for days on our side Winni. No ice out yet. Maybe in a couple of days. Cool fog coming off the ice too. Was cloudy when I left, now sun peeking out in Tilton as I chuck a few towards Dendrite. I also noticed some snow in very protected areas.i noticed a weenie patch of snow behind some protected pines along I93S this morning right after exit 18 by Brookford Farm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 i noticed a weenie patch of snow behind some protected pines along I93S this morning right after exit 18 by Brookford Farm. Still at the outlets, but heading home soon. I'll look for that patch lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 It's on the west/right side. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Euro has what looks to be some pretty good upslope for the northern Greens at the end of the week....a ways out of course for that type of event...but you have a stalled low over N Maine that gradually drifts E and a lot of deeper moisture with cyclonic flow hitting the N Greens on a NW/NNW trjectory. Here's the non-pay map version of it...but this drifts slowly east over the next 24 hours after this frame...and it does look to spit out some decent QPF over the N Greens during these frames...always a good sign from global models: Maybe powderfreak can comment on it better, but it looks to have most of the components for a decent event. I do know that wind direction is quite important...you really want it NW/NNW enough versus more WNW/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Euro has what looks to be some pretty good upslope for the northern Greens at the end of the week....a ways out of course for that type of event...but you have a stalled low over N Maine that gradually drifts E and a lot of deeper moisture with cyclonic flow hitting the N Greens on a NW/NNW trjectory. Here's the non-pay map version of it...but this drifts slowly east over the next 24 hours after this frame...and it does look to spit out some decent QPF over the N Greens during these frames...always a good sign from global models: Maybe powderfreak can comment on it better, but it looks to have most of the components for a decent event. I do know that wind direction is quite important...you really want it NW/NNW enough versus more WNW/W. Nice look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Nice look I like the deep moisture shown. You are blasting right into the heart of the DGZ above 850-800mb on these soundings...so I'm wondering if there is some sneaky potential for a decent late upslope event with this...obviously there are model difference on where the sfc low is moving and that can make a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 For Immediate Release 4/21/15 2:52pm All remaining natural snowpack melted out from my backyard last night. Snowbanks expected to follow within 3 days. Anticipated pool ice-out date is 4/22. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Nice coastal front enhancement last night. Falmouth over 4", and nearly some road washouts on the way to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Euro has what looks to be some pretty good upslope for the northern Greens at the end of the week....a ways out of course for that type of event...but you have a stalled low over N Maine that gradually drifts E and a lot of deeper moisture with cyclonic flow hitting the N Greens on a NW/NNW trjectory. Here's the non-pay map version of it...but this drifts slowly east over the next 24 hours after this frame...and it does look to spit out some decent QPF over the N Greens during these frames...always a good sign from global models: Maybe powderfreak can comment on it better, but it looks to have most of the components for a decent event. I do know that wind direction is quite important...you really want it NW/NNW enough versus more WNW/W. I would think NNW is not that ideal , esp compared to WNW. I mean if your 350 degrees or greater your not getting much , meanwhile 290-300 (wnw) still crushes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 I would think NNW is not that ideal , esp compared to WNW. I mean if your 350 degrees or greater your not getting much , meanwhile 290-300 (wnw) still crushes. ALL IN ALL THIS WILL KEEP DAILY CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS GOING WITH SNOW SHOWERS AT THE SUMMITS. A VARYING FREEZING LEVEL...HIGHER BY DAY...UP TO 2500 FT MSL...AND LOWER BY NIGHT...DOWN TO BLO 1000 FT...WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES SNOW AND WHO DOESN`T. THE BEST BET FOR SNOW REACHING THE VALLEY FLOORS LOOKS LIKE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNINGS. THERE SHOULDN`T BE TOO MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION...IF ANY...IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...BUT COULD ADD UP ON THE SUMMITS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 I would think NNW is not that ideal , esp compared to WNW. I mean if your 350 degrees or greater your not getting much , meanwhile 290-300 (wnw) still crushes. I was under the impression that under 300 is pretty meh for upslope...you want more NW than 300. That is why powderfreak loves lows over N Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 I was under the impression that under 300 is pretty meh for upslope...you want more NW than 300. That is why powderfreak loves lows over N Maine. yep he wants them parked over FVE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Maybe powderfreak can comment on it better, but it looks to have most of the components for a decent event. I do know that wind direction is quite important...you really want it NW/NNW enough versus more WNW/W. Yeah wind direction is really important and so is veering in the column, but for different areas of the upslope region. For JSpin it doesn't really matter, he's at the crest, but for me specifically on the east side, I prefer a more WNW flow at H85 with very little veering in the low levels. That seems better in pushing the moisture over the barrier onto the east side. The NNW flow at H85 veering to WNW at the SFC will crush the west slopes and not do much for the east side, as NNW won't carry as far east before it downslopes. That usually creates a blocked flow and severe down sloping literally right after the crest, and we could have blue sky over town while it snows 2"/hr on the west side. When I look at who looks to jack, the H85 and H95 winds will tell the tale. For east side it's better for more west of north component and less veering (uniform winds from SFC to H7 is optimal). For west slope the veering creates the blocked flow with say NNW above the mountain peaks with westerly low level flow into the terrain. When you guys get crushed on east flow upslope in ORH, I bet the best events include some decent veering in the low levels, while a more uniformed deep flow will carry that moisture downwind too. But like a NNE flow at H85 and a east flow at H95 is probably the most efficient at wringing out moisture right over the East Slope, while screwing say Tolland, where a deep layer ENE flow probably benefits Tolland just as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 yep he wants them parked over FVEThat's the climo favored position for sure in all local studies.For all modeling of Froude Numbers, the assumption is that 290 degrees is orthogonal to the Greens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 That's the climo favored position for sure in all local studies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 That's the climo favored position for sure in all local studies.Nice. I'm chillin with the family so just have my phone so can't pull up too much model data. Easier to just browse the forum. Tomorrow I'll look more closely.Definitely a precedence for late (and early) season cut-offs producing decent upslope storms. Bummed my WeatherBell will expire at the end of April with the ski area's winter season now done...but may just pony up the 20 bucks a month over the summer haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Nice. I'm chillin with the family so just have my phone so can't pull up too much model data. Easier to just browse the forum. Tomorrow I'll look more closely. Definitely a precedence for late (and early) season cut-offs producing decent upslope storms. I'm probably going to ski Jay Peak this weekend if they get hit hard. Take advantage of <30$ lift tickets. So I'm sort of watching the potential on this one. I did like the very deep moisture on all the soundings...we're essentially looking at full saturation up to 500mb. Hopefully the flow can cooperate for a nice period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 I'm probably going to ski Jay Peak this weekend if they get hit hard. Take advantage of <30$ lift tickets. So I'm sort of watching the potential on this one. I did like the very deep moisture on all the soundings...we're essentially looking at full saturation up to 500mb. Hopefully the flow can cooperate for a nice period of time. Is Jay having a special this weekend? Their snow report says it's $72 for a ticket right now. I'd go for a good upslope storm if it's under 30 bucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Is Jay having a special this weekend? Their snow report says it's $72 for a ticket right now. I'd go for a good upslope storm if it's under 30 bucks. Liftopia FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Liftopia FTW. Nice, yeah I've never really spent much time on that. But that's a big difference than $72. Honestly I was surprised they and Sugarbush are still charging as high as they are for walk up rates given the diminishing crowds and terrain. Even Stowe all April was $59/$64 ($64 with the RFID card if you never skied here before), and those other two resorts were in the $70 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Nice, yeah I've never really spent much time on that. But that's a big difference than $72. Honestly I was surprised they and Sugarbush are still charging as high as they are for walk up rates given the diminishing crowds and terrain. Even Stowe all April was $59/$64 ($64 with the RFID card if you never skied here before), and those other two resorts were in the $70 range. Liftopia can be really discounted in late season. They offer some decent deals mid-season too, but you really tend to see the discounts late...like 60-75% off type stuff. I would love for a huge upslope pounding...I want to get out one more time as my Bolton Valley trip on 4/11 was semi-disappointing given the first 2-3 hours were affected by wind holds. Though I can't really complain given the lift ticket was $19, haha. But it left one of those "I need to get back up for one more day" type tastes in my mouth. I view this weekend as the last chance for anything considered widespread mountain skiing. We're down to Superstar at KMart and Barker chair at SR after that....or Tucks, lol. This is one of those events were you could envision them getting bombed with 2 feet or just 4-6" of off and on sloppy snow showers over 40 hours. I'm hoping for the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Emerson Aviation posted todays ice status report: Should be clear on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 21, 2015 Share Posted April 21, 2015 Looks like he was on the north end which isn't a surprise given that pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Liftopia can be really discounted in late season. They offer some decent deals mid-season too, but you really tend to see the discounts late...like 60-75% off type stuff. I would love for a huge upslope pounding...I want to get out one more time as my Bolton Valley trip on 4/11 was semi-disappointing given the first 2-3 hours were affected by wind holds. Though I can't really complain given the lift ticket was $19, haha. But it left one of those "I need to get back up for one more day" type tastes in my mouth. I view this weekend as the last chance for anything considered widespread mountain skiing. We're down to Superstar at KMart and Barker chair at SR after that....or Tucks, lol. This is one of those events were you could envision them getting bombed with 2 feet or just 4-6" of off and on sloppy snow showers over 40 hours. I'm hoping for the former. I'm not feeling the 2' of spring paste. Be nice for sure, but the duration of moisture and winds don't look to be there. That said, there is usually one big spring bomb between mid-april and mid may. For two days the summits get sent back to deep winter and then the sun comes out and it's gone in a flash. Not sure this event is that. Next weekend however, the 30th timeframe, looks a little better. I like big storms this time of year for pow as opposed to orographic snowfall. The air just isn't cold enough for great upslope snow....you need -10c at 850 to make awesome upslope snow happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Trying to tickle 32F by sunrise...33.1F so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 31.2F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Bit of undercast over Raymond Pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 I'm not feeling the 2' of spring paste. Be nice for sure, but the duration of moisture and winds don't look to be there. That said, there is usually one big spring bomb between mid-april and mid may. For two days the summits get sent back to deep winter and then the sun comes out and it's gone in a flash. Not sure this event is that. Next weekend however, the 30th timeframe, looks a little better. I like big storms this time of year for pow as opposed to orographic snowfall. The air just isn't cold enough for great upslope snow....you need -10c at 850 to make awesome upslope snow happen. But it can get done with even -3C to -6C like in April 2012. That was like 3.5" of QPF and 27" of snow consisting of upslope needles and graupel and bullets. That was a crazy one because the mountain was pretty much bare to the summit after the heat of March 2012...the it was back to decent snowpack enough to explore the woods. No snow and mullets in record warmth... Followed by feet of snow (this was at the 24" mark) in April..I think this was around the time the legend of the picnic tables started following the 2011-2012 season. Then the next day I measured 27" on the level but the sun had been out for a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted April 22, 2015 Share Posted April 22, 2015 Nice PF. I remember that. Also the 2010 event. 850s actually get pretty cold in this one. About -8 or -9 at the peak. But it's the very steep lapse rates that have me somewhat interested. It goes to like -12 or -13 above 800mb with full saturation well up to 500mb. I'm not sure we can get the flow to align long enough for big totals tho. But these are probably not easily forecasted more than 2 days out. Euro still has a nice period. A different event, but I wonder if the summits can rip this evening for a time. Really close soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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