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March 5th Storm Obs/Nowcasting


nj2va

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That is total weenie radar and i would not count on it for flip times. I have seen many times where it is showing snow, yet it is raining or a mix.

 

GFS says wake up very early if you want to see a wicked rain to snow changeover.

 

Looks much better than the last two. Calling it a night.

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I went on a very RAINY jebwalk tonight. The mild weather plus rain has washed away lots of snow. We are down to about 30 percent areal coverage. Most of the remaining snowpack is on north facing lawns. It ranges from 1 to 3 inches deep. Leftover snow piles are everywhere, on roads as well as lawns. Temps are FINALLY starting to fall. I can hardly wait for 9am tomorrow when we finally go over to all snow then a few short hours of snow.

 

The farther west and north you are, the higher in elevation, the more snow you'll get. I know where I live. I am hoping and praying HARD for 3 inches. I sure dont live in Westminster.

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I went on a very RAINY jebwalk tonight. The mild weather plus rain has washed away lots of snow. We are down to about 30 percent areal coverage. Most of the remaining snowpack is on north facing lawns. It ranges from 1 to 3 inches deep. Leftover snow piles are everywhere, on roads as well as lawns. Temps are FINALLY starting to fall. I can hardly wait for 9am tomorrow when we finally go over to all snow then a few short hours of snow.

 

The farther west and north you are, the higher in elevation, the more snow you'll get. I know where I live. I am hoping and praying HARD for 3 inches. I sure dont live in Westminster.

 

No question you get 3"+

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No question you get 3"+

If I root for 3 inches I am pretty sure i wont be disappointed, especially with all the model consensus we have. Maryland is gonna CA$H in BIG. Oil up the shovels and gas up the blowers. You're gonna need em. There'll be a few lollis to 10-11 in MD tomorrow. Take frequent breaks while shoveling.

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I guess this goes here... if not please move it to the right place -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0121.html

 

 

mcd0121.gif

 

 


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0121   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1000 PM CST WED MAR 04 2015   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KY...SRN OH...WV...SWRN   PA...FAR WRN MD   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW    VALID 050400Z - 051000Z   SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE SPREADING ENEWD ACROSS   PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE   OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE   ACROSS THE AREA.   DISCUSSION...AN EXTENSIVE BAND OF LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ASCENT   ACCOMPANYING A BROAD BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED WSW/ENE ACROSS THE   REGION WILL FOSTER CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. REPORTS OF   MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL KY TOWARD THE   OHIO RIVER VICINITY. CONVECTIVE PROCESSES UPSTREAM TOWARD THE   MID-SOUTH AND ARKLATEX WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF PRECIPITATION INTO   THE REGION FROM THE SW...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROADER WARM CONVEYOR   STRUCTURE ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF CNTRL-CONUS MIDLEVEL TROUGHING PER   WATER VAPOR LOOPS. GIVEN THE STEEPER FRONTAL SURFACE N OF THE TN   VALLEY/MID-SOUTH REGION...DEEPER SUBFREEZING AIR THROUGH THE   TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. ANY ONGOING   RAIN FROM ERN KY TO NRN WV SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW THROUGH 06Z   OWING TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND   NOCTURNAL DIABATIC COOLING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL   BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SLEET POSSIBLE DURING THE   TRANSITION PERIOD TO SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS.   ..COHEN.. 03/05/2015   ATTN...WFO...LWX...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
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