Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

March 5th Storm Obs/Nowcasting


nj2va

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

3:30pm ob: 5.2 inches, 26.4 degrees. Back to heavy snow.

 

Some interesting things on radar as last pulse bouncing north far enough to get us all and radar is filling in west of the Allegheny's. Not sure how it translates here later, but fun storm nonetheless.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

this kind of front wouldn't show up on one of those maps

you have to compare temps and dp's on one side to the other to realize it is there

Interesting...I did notice the front-like signature in the isobars over the apps

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It sure as he*l did not hold off until very late morning like was being shown very late lat night. A 3am call with onset at 6-7am is probably better than calls for onset at 10am-12noon. the 6pm remains to be seen, I believe initlally you referenced 4/5 or as late as 6.

 

I never said 4.....models were a bit off with the lull, but I flipped at 13z which was within the range of when models said DCA would flip....There were a couple that had the flip at 9 or 10, but it was mostly for lack of precip.  It's good to have your experience here...There have been a lot of bad forecasts over the years from mets and others who aren't DC knowledgable...but you've had a lot of bad busts in the last 5-10 years by ignoring models....even IAD was 37 and rain at 8z,...they didn't flip until around 6am....Eschewing models completely every storm leads to a lot of misses...we have a lot of them to aggregate and thus lower the error...It would make more sense to partially embrace them and learn more while at the same time remain skeptical, not hug them, and incorporate your experience and local knowledge...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's not folklore. What it is, back in the 1960's and into then 70's I, as a lay person weather nut, did not have the satellite, radar, wv, computer, etc. I had to learn how to forecast from the grouud up so to speak.  It turns out that most of the ground obs. discipline do correspond well with what is happening up top. 30.1, in this case, corresponds pretty well to what the upper levels are doing to allow for snow. Took me really until intenet weather to connect how I Had to learn how to do things with what you guys we able to assess and forecast from the much advanced technology and distribution of info that is now available. My observations are not in conflict with more current and standard procedures, it's just a difference in the culling method.

 

I was being silly and not trying to be disrespectful.  I enjoy your methods, appreciate the experience that you have, and look forward to your discussions (except the DCA stuff)..  I only wish I could call 936-1212 and hear you wish me a Happy Halloween.  :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...