PWC Split Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Back to the good rates!! 22F and back to fatties falling in copious amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I think the HRRR's radar assimilation is better in summer convective situations, but others may know more. I never ever use it. RAP is way way better in winter storms at close range.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Models aren't perfect...Using your local knowledge and forecasting experience is important, but to eschew them completely is unwise. The short term ones initialize every hour. Sure, there are changes, and they won't nail it, but you and I aren't going to have accumulating snow until 10-12, or even 10. For me and you will shut off around 6, maybe a little after, and then pixie dust, flurries...nonaccumulating stuff...I don't think your 10-12" will verify either nor did your 0 column by 8z. Though, we do hug models too much and to have you here is definitely an asset. It sure as he*l did not hold off until very late morning like was being shown very late lat night. A 3am call with onset at 6-7am is probably better than calls for onset at 10am-12noon. the 6pm remains to be seen, I believe initlally you referenced 4/5 or as late as 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I think the HRRR's radar assimilation is better in summer convective situations, but others may know more. I would agree...it probably wouldnt be great with banding features in this type of set up. I would think it would also be a little better with more of a defined low pressure system rather than a jet of moisture with an associated front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 i don't buy the 10pm ending. i think 6pm is a good number for accumulating snow. i would think after 6pm there may be some dust flying around, but then again, there is some energy still back west so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I think the HRRR's radar assimilation is better in summer convective situations, but others may know more. I thought that was one feature it did well with generally this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 moderate snow with decent flakes....22.5F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 The snow slackened a bit, now the rates are picking right back up as yet another yellow band closes in on mby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I would agree...it probably wouldnt be great with banding features in this type of set up. I would think it would also be a little better with more of a defined low pressure system rather than a jet of moisture with an associated front. That must be it, nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Rippage in Sterling.. will probably end with 8 or 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Darn! We can't seem to get the 1"/hr "deathbands" here in Baltimore (unless I've missed something) We've got about 4.5 IMBY (I actually measured 4.5 in my front walk and 6 in my back...Kinda strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidjd1994 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 About 6.5 in Bel Air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Nice blast right over our radar site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 7.5" in Ashburn and dumping!! most consistent crushing of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Looks like some back-filling on radar near Culpeper and Middleburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 28.6F, 3", heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 i hope howard is right....It may be a case that after 6pm or so we get light small flakes, but as it will be cold and dark they might still accumulate some..I'm always hoping for backbuilding or steady stuff after it looks like it will shut off....I will be more than happy to be proven wrong this band that is moving SE from WV extends all the way through PA http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RLX-N0Q-1-12 it must be the arctic front....I don't think we shut off and clear out until it passes, but before it does, I would expect it to efficiently wring out all available moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 It sure as he*l did not hold off until very late morning like was being shown very late lat night. A 3am call with onset at 6-7am is probably better than calls for onset at 10am-12noon. the 6pm remains to be seen, I believe initlally you referenced 4/5 or as late as 6. Dude....back edge is racing, probably done before 5, just enjoy what is falling now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 4" at 3:25pm here. Just gained 2 inches in an hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 this band that is moving SE from WV extends all the way through PA http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RLX-N0Q-1-12 it must be the arctic front....I don't think we shut off and clear out until it passes, but before it does, I would expect it to efficiently wring out all available moisture Good comments. You know your schtuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I hope so. I like when Howard's tea leaves and folklore are right and then he comes back in and lambasts the iginiant. It's not folklore. What it is, back in the 1960's and into then 70's I, as a lay person weather nut, did not have the satellite, radar, wv, computer, etc. I had to learn how to forecast from the grouud up so to speak. It turns out that most of the ground obs. discipline do correspond well with what is happening up top. 30.1, in this case, corresponds pretty well to what the upper levels are doing to allow for snow. Took me really until intenet weather to connect how I Had to learn how to do things with what you guys we able to assess and forecast from the much advanced technology and distribution of info that is now available. My observations are not in conflict with more current and standard procedures, it's just a difference in the culling method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 this band that is moving SE from WV extends all the way through PA http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=RLX-N0Q-1-12 it must be the arctic front....I don't think we shut off and clear out until it passes, but before it does, I would expect it to efficiently wring out all available moisture There doesn't really seem to be much of a front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 wow, look at SE NC, where the slp is located 75 degrees in Wilmington and 81 to the west in SC http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=at&expanddiv=hide_bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Verified warning 5.1 inches and counting, heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Steady snow...love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cigrgd Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 5.5" as of 3:30 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 There doesn't really seem to be much of a front. this kind of front wouldn't show up on one of those maps you have to compare temps and dp's on one side to the other to realize it is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 How are the streets in DC .....I'm going to the wild/caps game later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Seems to be the artic front is pulling the moisture back towards the nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 wow, look at SE NC, where the slp is located 75 degrees in Wilmington and 81 to the west in SC http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=at&expanddiv=hide_bar New Bern NC hit 83 today and has an advisory for freezing rain tonight...that shiz is cray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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