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March 5th Storm Obs/Nowcasting


nj2va

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Back edge has slowed considerably and in fact snow has redeveloped in WV and KY. 4-5pm end calls will bust hugely, 6pm I don't think so either so let's see how the 6pm versus 10pm call works out. Also, look at the DCA hourlies, the instant that the baro hit 30.1 it started snowing.  I agree with you that the small flakes with snow fog are underestimated as to the accumulation rate.

 

Models aren't perfect...Using your local knowledge and forecasting experience is important, but to eschew them completely is unwise.  The short term ones initialize every hour.  Sure, there are changes, and they won't nail it, but you and I aren't going to have accumulating snow until 10-12, or even 10.  For me and you will shut off around 6, maybe a little after, and then pixie dust, flurries...nonaccumulating stuff...I don't think your 10-12" will verify either nor did your 0 column by 8z.  Though, we do hug models too much and to have you here is definitely an asset.  

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The RAP keeps the 700 mb layer saturated until 02Z.

So...the strong rates may taper off in about three hours but

snow showers may continue into the very early evening.

 

attachicon.gifrap_namer_007_700_rh_ht.gif

 

I hope so.  I like when Howard's tea leaves and folklore are right and then he comes back in and lambasts the iginiant.

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Just did another shoveling and measurement run.

 

In non-drifted areas, I took three readings of 3.5" on gravel driveway.

 

I measured four separate drifts to 11" (careful to not include previous snows; with those snows, some were deeper; nice crusty layer told me where to stop).

 

I measured an 8" drift on the walk I just shoved less than two hours ago.

 

There are large parts of my lawn and deck that have less than 1/4".

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3pm measurement. 4.5 on the ground (5 inches probably fell but what the hell). Moderate snow still. Would love to get to the 6 inch mark to match the storm 3 weeks ago. 26.4.

I have 5. We'll hit 6, if these heavy bands keep on hitting us for a couple more hours we might even touch 7

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The RAP keeps the 700 mb layer saturated until 02Z.

So...the strong rates may taper off in about three hours but

snow showers may continue into the very early evening.

 

 

 

attachicon.gifrap_namer_007_700_rh_ht.gif

 

i hope howard is right....It may be a case that after 6pm or so we get light small flakes, but as it will be cold and dark they might still accumulate some..I'm always hoping for backbuilding or steady stuff after it looks like it will shut off....I will be more than happy to be proven wrong

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