BristowWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Meso discussion saved into the thread for posterity: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0124 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0658 AM CST THU MAR 05 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...WV AND WESTERN/NORTHERN VA TO DC METRO/MD/SOUTHEAST PA/NJ/DE CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 051258Z - 051800Z SUMMARY...INCREASINGLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1 IN/HR...PARTICULARLY INCLUDING A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN WV...WESTERN/NORTHERN VA...FAR SOUTHEAST PA...THE DC METRO...NJ/MD AND NORTHERN DE. DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA VICINITY BY MID/LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. NEAR-SURFACE SUB-FREEZING AIR CONTINUES TO STEADILY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE SURFACE WET-BULB 32F ISOLINE EXTENDING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN VA...NEAR THE DC METRO AREA...TO NEAR PHILADELPHIA/CENTRAL NJ AS OF 12Z. AS COLDER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO TRANSITION SOUTHEASTWARD...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH A FAVORABLE ELEVATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR INCREASINGLY HEAVY SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET ALSO INITIALLY POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY TO LOCALLY EXCEED 1 IN/HR WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM WASHINGTON-DULLES SUBSTANTIATES THIS NOTION WITH CONSIDERABLE COOLING HAVING OCCURRED BELOW 700 MB OVER THE PAST 12-HOURS...WITH ONLY A NEGLIGIBLE ABOVE-FREEZING ELEVATED LAYER /AROUND 0.5C/ REMAINING AT 850 MB AS OF 12Z. OF NOTE RELATED TO NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THIS OBSERVED ELEVATED WARM LAYER AT KIAD WAS AS MUCH AS 2-3C COLDER /750-700 MB/ THAN THE 06Z NAM POINT FORECAST BUT SIMILAR TO THE 06Z GFS FORECAST PROFILE. ..GUYER.. 03/05/2015 ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX... LAT...LON 37098013 37548142 38458163 40137779 40467420 39547430 39267498 38447776 37098013 Of all the watchies and warnings this one is my favorite especially if you are inside the squiggles line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 yes...the sounding is marginal....this early flip is a function of having steady precip.....this mixing won't last long regardless I just haven't had any sleet mix back in yet...but I trust his obs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Just heard some places in KT got nearly 2' of snow. 31 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I was very heavy snow, but in the little lull I am in a lot of sleet mixed back in. 28/26 - snow and sleet really? Yes! Now as rates are increasing again I am going back to all snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Morning all! A great day ahead. Moderate and steady snow. Looks beautiful. 30 degrees. Dewpoint 29. Humidity 93%. Juicy! Easy 1/2" maybe so far? Just eyeing it for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Mainly snow now with a bit of sleet. Moderate. 32.0. The rimed flakes appear and sound like sleet. Maybe that's throwing off that guy in Purcellville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 32.9/31.2 with a coating of mostly sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I would swear I just heard thunder. Is that even possible? Is there a site to verify it? RadarScope says no. If you don't have that, you can always check this as well: http://branch.nsstc.nasa.gov/PUBLIC/DCLMA/html/updating_lightning_250km.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwgNAS Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Just measured a quarter inch of snow and sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I will say this...the handrails on my deck sure don't accumulate well...so oddyea I had to replace mine with something more snow magnetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 2" on the board; one inch in the last hour. Snow was falling at 5, but was pixie flakes and not amounting to much. Fatties falling now. Been under some great banding the last hour. Enjoy all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Just heard some places in KT got nearly 2' of snow. 31 snow Hopefully this means we have a decent chance to over perform as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Just heard some places in KT got nearly 2' of snow. 31 snow No kidding, wow! http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lmk/pdf/briefing/Mar05_2015_330AM.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Steady snow. 32.4 Nice banding heading this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hsq Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Surprisingly already down to 32.6F in Northeast Calvert Co. http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMDCHESA9#history Not very heavy radar returns, but lt rain with some sleet mixing in. All sleet now. Finally hit freezing. 32.0 @ Breezy Point. Hoping it flips soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 yea I had to replace mine with something more snow magnetic 30" a lock I suppose....is it silly to talk 40"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 32 degrees with a moderate snow/sleet mix. Accums have begun. Roads are caving. Immediate piling up of dendrites and sleet pellets are testament to just how icebox COLD the ground really is, including the sidewalks and our driveway even in exposed areas. The recently uncovered grass and some remaining patches of glacier are getting acquainted with approximately 15 billion new friends lol. EDIT: 31 degrees. yea we dominated in the cold category last couple months. this snowfall will help a lot in the seasonal cold:snowfall ratio, which was relatively one-sided for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Nice to see those northern bands sliding a bit south, coming down hard. 28/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Eyeball estimate is about a quarter inch of snow/sleet so far. More snow is mixing in. I think it is 60 snow/40 sleet. Dendrites are getting larger. 32 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Hopefully this means we have a decent chance to over perform as well.I didn't want to show my extreme weenieness, but that's what I was thinking lol. Good luck out there! Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Coming down pretty good here in the Chevy Chase/Bethesda area. I woke up around 6 to verify if OPM and the schools had closed, saw it was still wet outside with nothing much falling (kind of expected that at the time), then went back to bed. Got up shortly after 8 and by then it was snowing. Maybe a half inch or so now, just eye-balling it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 32, Main roads are now acquiescing in UHI central...damn march sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Huh. Accumulating snow above freezing during the day in March. Look at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 30" a lock I suppose....is it silly to talk 40"? I was thinking about that. We just need 13. Could be one more event or maybe we just so it today lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Nice to see those northern bands sliding a bit south, coming down hard. 28/28 i think we're golden. seeing some darker shades to the southwest as well. think by 10am we're accumulating with vigor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Huh. Accumulating snow above freezing during the day in March. Look at that. cold ground...a topic that seems to be brought up more this season. we were a dc version of canada in february. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 3 inches and pouring snow. Flake size has shrunk significantly in the last 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Have an inch of snow and sleet! Almost all snow now after a brief encounter with sleet for almost 30 minutes. Rates increasing again after a little lull.. 28/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Nice band developed in Sterling moderate to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I was thinking about that. We just need 13. Could be one more event or maybe we just so it today lol I don't think it's crazy talk...in fact my 10.5" ob is an inch shy of the official report because Dave measured low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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