Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

March 5th Storm Obs/Nowcasting


nj2va

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

 

I liked this statement

 

 

AS COLDER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO TRANSITION

SOUTHEASTWARD...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH A

FAVORABLE ELEVATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH SHOULD

CONTRIBUTE TO A SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR INCREASINGLY HEAVY

SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET ALSO INITIALLY POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES ARE

LIKELY TO LOCALLY EXCEED 1 IN/HR WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. THE 12Z

OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM WASHINGTON-DULLES SUBSTANTIATES THIS NOTION

WITH CONSIDERABLE COOLING HAVING OCCURRED BELOW 700 MB OVER THE PAST

12-HOURS...WITH ONLY A NEGLIGIBLE ABOVE-FREEZING ELEVATED LAYER

/AROUND 0.5C/ REMAINING AT 850 MB AS OF 12Z. OF NOTE RELATED TO

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THIS OBSERVED ELEVATED WARM LAYER AT KIAD WAS

AS MUCH AS 2-3C COLDER /750-700 MB/ THAN THE 06Z NAM POINT FORECAST

BUT SIMILAR TO THE 06Z GFS FORECAST PROFILE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I liked this statement

 

 

AS COLDER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO TRANSITION

SOUTHEASTWARD...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH A

FAVORABLE ELEVATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH SHOULD

CONTRIBUTE TO A SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR INCREASINGLY HEAVY

SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET ALSO INITIALLY POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES ARE

LIKELY TO LOCALLY EXCEED 1 IN/HR WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. THE 12Z

OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM WASHINGTON-DULLES SUBSTANTIATES THIS NOTION

WITH CONSIDERABLE COOLING HAVING OCCURRED BELOW 700 MB OVER THE PAST

12-HOURS...WITH ONLY A NEGLIGIBLE ABOVE-FREEZING ELEVATED LAYER

/AROUND 0.5C/ REMAINING AT 850 MB AS OF 12Z. OF NOTE RELATED TO

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THIS OBSERVED ELEVATED WARM LAYER AT KIAD WAS

AS MUCH AS 2-3C COLDER /750-700 MB/ THAN THE 06Z NAM POINT FORECAST

BUT SIMILAR TO THE 06Z GFS FORECAST PROFILE.

 

 

But, but, the NAM...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Meso discussion saved into the thread for posterity:

 

mcd0124.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0124
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0658 AM CST THU MAR 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WV AND WESTERN/NORTHERN VA TO DC METRO/MD/SOUTHEAST
PA/NJ/DE

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 051258Z - 051800Z

SUMMARY...INCREASINGLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1
IN/HR...PARTICULARLY INCLUDING A CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN
WV...WESTERN/NORTHERN VA...FAR SOUTHEAST PA...THE DC METRO...NJ/MD
AND NORTHERN DE.

DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION RATES WILL INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES/DELMARVA VICINITY BY
MID/LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AMPLIFYING
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC LIFT/FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING. NEAR-SURFACE SUB-FREEZING AIR CONTINUES TO STEADILY
PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE SURFACE
WET-BULB 32F ISOLINE EXTENDING ACROSS FAR WESTERN/NORTHERN VA...NEAR
THE DC METRO AREA...TO NEAR PHILADELPHIA/CENTRAL NJ AS OF 12Z.

AS COLDER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO TRANSITION
SOUTHEASTWARD...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT COINCIDENT WITH A
FAVORABLE ELEVATED THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR DENDRITIC GROWTH SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO A SCENARIO FAVORABLE FOR INCREASINGLY HEAVY
SNOW...WITH SOME SLEET ALSO INITIALLY POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES ARE
LIKELY TO LOCALLY EXCEED 1 IN/HR WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR. THE 12Z
OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM WASHINGTON-DULLES SUBSTANTIATES THIS NOTION
WITH CONSIDERABLE COOLING HAVING OCCURRED BELOW 700 MB OVER THE PAST
12-HOURS...WITH ONLY A NEGLIGIBLE ABOVE-FREEZING ELEVATED LAYER
/AROUND 0.5C/ REMAINING AT 850 MB AS OF 12Z. OF NOTE RELATED TO
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE...THIS OBSERVED ELEVATED WARM LAYER AT KIAD WAS
AS MUCH AS 2-3C COLDER /750-700 MB/ THAN THE 06Z NAM POINT FORECAST
BUT SIMILAR TO THE 06Z GFS FORECAST PROFILE.

..GUYER.. 03/05/2015


ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 37098013 37548142 38458163 40137779 40467420 39547430
39267498 38447776 37098013 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...