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March 5th Storm Obs/Nowcasting


nj2va

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Well, the changeover must be close here as the precip has completely stopped for the first time since 3:30 this afternoon.  .75" of driving rain all evening/night and it shuts off just as soon as the changeover approaches.  Radar looks wretched to my SW, too.  I stayed up to 2 AM for this?  I need to have my head examined. I'm done.

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Well, the changeover must be close here as the precip has completely stopped for the first time since 3:30 this afternoon.  .75" of driving rain all evening/night and it shuts off just as soon as the changeover approaches.  Radar looks wretched to my SW, too.  I stayed up to 2 AM for this?  I need to have my head examined. I'm done.

I am sure there will be more precip along soon. We have a plume that is being supplied by inputs from both the deep tropical Pacific and the west GoMex. You definitely DON'T need your head examined. We all love snow, you love snow, and you're gonna get DEMOLISHED by snow today  :snowing:  :snowing:  :snowing:  :snowing:

This firehose http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php is about to bury you in snow!

Need more evidence? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html

We're building one hell of an airtight case for serious snow here!

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I am sure there will be more precip along soon. We have a plume that is being supplied by inputs from both the deep tropical Pacific and the west GoMex. You definitely DON'T need your head examined. We all love snow, you love snow, and you're gonna get DEMOLISHED by snow today  :snowing:  :snowing:  :snowing:  :snowing:

This firehose http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php is about to bury you in snow!

Need more evidence? http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html

We're building one hell of an airtight case for serious snow here!

 

We'll see.  I hope everyone gets a solid storm out of this.  While that plume is impressive, it's narrow and the precip is a lot more scattered than I want to see.  Showery type precip will not get anything done in March daylight, even with temps in the upper 20s.  What falls will melt in lulls, if that is infact the nature of the precip.

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I was doing so well on temps. Now, i am STUCK at 38. I think that front is kind of moving east, then getting stuck, then moving a little again, then getting stuck lol.

 

A poster on here has a really good av caption that goes something like this: Moisture not enough Cold. Cold, not enough Moisture. Damn.

 

I have plenty of moisture. i have more than enough moisture to build a rain forest in a day. I need 32 degrees. Five more degrees to go: I am at 37/32. That arctic cold airmass needs to stop stuffing its face with jelly doughnuts, get up off of the couch, and get a move on southeast! NOW!

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We'll see. I hope everyone gets a solid storm out of this. While that plume is impressive, it's narrow and the precip is a lot more scattered than I want to see. Showery type precip will not get anything done in March daylight, even with temps in the upper 20s. What falls will melt in lulls, if that is infact the nature of the precip.

Do you do anything but complain? Geesh.

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LWX snips:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
342 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.
AS OF 3 AM...SFC BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED TO NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER.
HOWEVER...COLDER AIR IS ONLY TRICKLING INTO THE AREA. THERE HAVE
BEEN A SOME OBS OF SN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE
NORTHWEST...BUT THERE IS A TEMPORARY LULL IN RADAR THAT MAY TAKE
UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK TO FILL BACK IN AND HAVE BETTER SNOW RATES
SPREAD EAST.

WX GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO SLOW DOWN THE CHANGEOVER...WHICH WILL PUSH
SE REACHING THE SE EXTENT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING.
SO JUST BECAUSE CONDITIONS MAY BE JUST WET AT DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE DURING THE MORNING. THERE STILL
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PROB OF A FEW HOURS OF SLEET MIXTURE...ESPECIALLY
AS THE TRANSITION ZONE TRAVERSES FARTHER SE. FOR THESE REASONS...IN
ADDITION TO A LARGE CHUNK OF SNOW FALLING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
(MARCH SUN ANGLE)...SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK BY A FEW
INCHES ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA.

NEVERTHELESS...THERE WILL STILL BE GOOD BANDING POTENTIAL. HAVE
HEARD REPORTS OF NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW IN N-CNTL KY (NOT TO DRAW A
DIRECT CORRELATION TO THE LOCAL AREA...JUST THE POTENCY OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE DEEP MOISTURE TAP). THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WINDOW
OF A FEW HOURS WHERE RATES COULD BE AN INCH PER HOUR OR MORE. THIS
WOULD BE EARLY MORNING FOR NW SECTIONS...MIDDAY FOR THE METROS TO
CNTL SHEN VALLEY...AFTERNOON FOR CNTL VA TO SRN MD. PINPOINTING
BANDING LOCATION AND DURATION WILL ULTIMATELY INFLUENCE SNOW TOTALS
SINCE IT WILL REPRESENT THE BEST CHANCE AT ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY. BLENDING IN
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FALL WILL BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST...ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR TO THE SNOW.

 

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Just fell to 35 degrees! NNW wind gust to 22 mph! I dont think that cold air is just trickling in anymore!

Point and click trimmed back to 3 to 7 inches due to later onset of all snow, but I am still pumped for this because three inches is BONUS for March 5!

 

We got one hell of a firehose of moisture and I STILL say we are gonna get demolished! Heavy snow RATES will overcome the weak March sun, our ground is ice COLD and the roads dont stand a chance! THEY WILL CAVE! Temps will fall slower than earlier progged but it will still only be in the 20s!

 

 

In March, any snow is bonus!

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Maybe my peeps aren't awake yet... But I have a hunch that matt's rant on how insufferable the forum is gonna be this morning has really cut down on the number of storm canceled posts... Really disappointed... On another note has anyone noticed how on the national radar the northwest edge of the precip blob to our sw is slowly pushing southeast? Given the 6 hour lull coming it seems as though there is chance that nw edge fringes us. Anyone see that?

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Maybe my peeps aren't awake yet... But I have a hunch that matt's rant on how insufferable the forum is gonna be this morning has really cut down on the number of storm canceled posts... Really disappointed... On another note has anyone noticed how on the national radar the northwest edge of the precip blob to our sw is slowly pushing southeast? Given the 6 hour lull coming it seems as though there is chance that nw edge fringes us. Anyone see that?

Posts like this are the reason Matt steps out. Congrats

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