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3/4-5/2015 Storm Observations


Rtd208

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If you didn't see the NWS-Upton AFD, it's a great one and worth reading about how the changeover was later than expected, but the precip should be more than expected from here on out, such that we likely arrive at the same endpoint.  The bonus is we'll be able to watch most of it, lol.  

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=OKX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

BIGGEST MODEL DIFFERENCES COMPARED TO 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO WAS SLOWER
COLUMN COOLING EARLY THIS MORNING BY ABOUT 3-4 HOURS...BUT A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF MOISTURE
 PLUME THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY MEANING HIGHER QPF
. OVERALL THIS IS LENDING TO A FAIRLY
SIMILAR FORECAST OF SNOW AMOUNTS.

PRECIP EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW THROUGH 10Z
DOWN TO THE COAST WITH COLUMN COOLING. THE STEADY PROGRESS IS SEEN
IN OBS
 AND DUAL-POL. ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED FROM NW TO
SE BETWEEN 10Z TO 15Z...WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO LOWER TO MID 30S
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S LATER THIS MORNING...AND DOWN INTO THE LOWER
20S THIS AFTERNOON. ROAD CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE IN
ITS WAKE...AND COINCIDING AT LEAST PART OF MORNING COMMUTE. ICY
CONDITIONS AND SNOW COVERED ROADS EXPECTED FOR AFT/EVE COMMUTE AS
WELL.

POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH MODEST FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING COUPLED WITH STRONG JET DYNAMICS. SREF IS INDICATING
LIKELY PROB OF 1" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS TIME FOR
NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SBU WRF SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1/2 INCH QPF
BETWEEN 7 AM AND 1 PM ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LI/NYC. SNOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FROM NW TO SE
THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES AND OFFSHORE
STATIONARY FRONT SLIDES WELL OFFSHORE.

REGION IS ON EDGE OF A TIGHT PRECIP GRADIENT. HAVE RELIED ON A
OPER/HIGH RES ENSEMBLE APPROACH TO QPF...WITH GENERALLY A 1/10TH
OR LESS QPF ORANGE COUNTY TO CLOSE TO 7/10 INCH OF QPF ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN LI. THE HIGHEST PROB FOR 1/2 INCH LIQUID QPF REMAINS
ALONG SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NYC/NJ METRO AND LI. SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON...WITH
HEAVY WET SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME LIGHT AND POWDERY BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...A GENERAL 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW STILL
EXPECTED FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND LI...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS. WARNING CONTINUES HERE. POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 5
INCHES FOR COASTAL CT AND SOUTHEASTERN CT...THE REST OF NE
NJ...AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA...AND
HAVE EXPANDED ADVISORY INTO NORTHERN MIDDLESEX AND NORTHERN NEW
LONDON BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF MOISTURE PLUME AND REPORTS OF UP TO
1/2 INCH THERE ALREADY. FINALLY...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
ACROSS AREAS FAR N&W OF NYC...BETWEEN DUSTING TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED
FROM NW TO SE...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

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As of 6:30 am, we finally have 1" on the ground, 2.5 hours after it started, and temps have dropped to 31F.  Snow falling moderately to almost heavily right now (visib slightly more than 1/4 mile) - gorgeous flakes.  Was just outside for a walk and it's great snowball snow, at this time.

 

As of 7:30 am we're up to 1.75" (about 3/4" in the last hour - would've thought it was 1" per hour rates, but the ruler never lies, lol) and it's still 31F.  It's just ripping out there - borderline heavy - this is going to be an awesome storm to watch from my recliner.  But I also urge folks to get out and about in it - words don't do justice to how gorgeous it is out there right now.  Can't wait for enough snow to make a good snow angel, lol...

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