ravensrule Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 WxBell Euro snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Trying to figure out sleet/flip but looks like 6-10 everywhere I think 2-3 hours after 850 temps are 0. GFS flips around 2 hours after 850 hits 0, and NAM around 4 hours, but I think the NAM is probably still out to lunch with the extent of the warm layer. Keep in mind Euro (and Ukie) don't give us a whole lot between 6z and 12z. We'll call it 3 hours to be safe, so flip time to snow on euro (of course some frozen likely before the full flip) MRB - 6z - Precip after flip - 0.75" IAD - 9z - Precip after flip - 0.75" BWI - 9z - 0.65" DCA - 12z - 0.70" Of course I don't think it will take that much time to move east, but who knows. ETA - so yes...6-10" snowstorm on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Both GFS and Euro still have most of the area below zero Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Interesting. 700mb level was an issue for the NAM into the morning, and on the euro we are below by 6z... Though based on GFS, I think the bigger issue is the 750-800mb layer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 FWIW, 03z SREFs have both the 0C 2mT line and the 0c 850 line crossing through DCA around 09z Thursday (4am)... as well as over 1" QPF on the 24 hr QPF map at hr 48 ETA: Mean is just under 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Wakefield not bullish at all as always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 06z NAM has snow in DCA by 7/8am Thursday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Hate seeing so much wasted precip at 6z. No other models show this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like 5 to 6 inches at DCA on the 06z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like 5 to 6 inches at DCA on the 06z NAMcoming around but we haven't got named yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Long duration event. Snow flurries still falling through 10pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 New snow maps from WPC been give: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_08.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Once again, the 4km NAM tun appears to be better than the regular NAM tun at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Up here in Philly we'll changeover faster, but I'm becoming more & more jealous of you guys since you will probably have the best VVs/dynamics.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Anybody have the 4km NAM snow map? TT is only out to 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Here's the whole run and zoomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 LWX has updated the point and clicks, and doing a random central MD, NoVa survey, looks like a general 5-10". Only slightly less for the just south of DC crowd, 4-8". Also, State College just issued warnings. Get ready Yoda. They must be getting close to pulling the trigger here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 06z GFS has the 0c 850 line crossing DCA at 06z or so (1am Thursday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Barely, but 09z (hr 27) is a snow sounding at DCA Its an okay run fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 LWX has updated the point and clicks, and doing a random central MD, NoVa survey, looks like a general 5-10". Only slightly less for the just south of DC crowd, 4-8". Also, State College just issued warnings. Get ready Yoda. They must be getting close to pulling the trigger here. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 451 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-VAZ052>054-041800- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0005.150305T0000Z-150306T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0009.150305T0500Z-150306T0200Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...MANASSAS... MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH 451 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM EST THURSDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM EST THURSDAY. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW 4 TO 8 INCHES...ALONG WITH A TRACE OF ICE. * LOCATIONS...WASHINGTON DC METROPOLITAN AREA. * HAZARD TYPES...WINTRY MIX...THEN SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. * TIMING...RAIN CHANGES TO WINTRY MIX AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN ALL SNOW INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SNOW HEAVIEST THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED WITH VISIBILITY REDUCED TO ONE- QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. TRAVELING WILL BE DANGEROUS. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOW 30S...DROPPING INTO THE 20S THURSDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Warnings are up for central Maryland too. 6-10 is the lwx call. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 7-10" for me, woooo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I noticed the 6Z GFS tries to head south with the Thursday precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I noticed the 6Z GFS tries to head south with the Thursday precip. No, it didn't. However, it is drier across most of the LWX region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I noticed the 6Z GFS tries to head south with the Thursday precip. You mean the stuff down over SE VA and NE NC? Its been doing that last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 No, it didn't. However, it is drier across most of the LWX region. Especially north and west. It looks wonky. It has been insistent on these seperate bullseye areas, and has now expanded the eastern one down into the VA tidewater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 No, it didn't. However, it is drier across most of the LWX region. wayyyyy drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Based on all guidance...my final call for Leesburg is 6.8" and a disappointed Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 wayyyyy drier I was gonna say...06Z GFS is a whole category drier with the 24 hr totals from 12Z Thu to 12Z Fri (I.e. capturing the period of all snow). As in...DCA going from .5 to .25, and Balt getting less than .25". MUCH drier soln... I'm surprised folks aren't panicking (yet).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Give it time.... Not panic time yet, but it gives me pause becuase it's been pretty good lately. We will see if 12z follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.