March 5 Snow Thread-Model Discussion ONLY

[yoda]

Holy smokes. That is even faster than before.

 

Its 6z.. i corrected my post above

[yoda]

Snow sounding at DCA at hr 33

[bigjohndc]

My point and click has 1-2". That would be so confusing for non-weenies who don't understand what they're looking at.

My forecast is the same, but the .5 to .75 on precipitation on Thursday is encouraging.

[stormtracker]

DCA is snow at 4am

[Expat]

snow at 9z

[clskinsfan]

cobb data:

 

DCA:

150305/1000Z  34  35009KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.80    0|  0|100150305/1100Z  35  35008KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.038    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.84    0|  0|100150305/1200Z  36  35009KT  33.2F  RAPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.88    0| 35| 65----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150305/1300Z  37  35009KT  32.4F  PL      0:1| 0.0|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.054    0:1|  0.0|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 0.93    0| 99|  1150305/1400Z  38  35009KT  31.7F  SNOW    5:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.084    5:1|  0.4|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 1.01  100|  0|  0150305/1500Z  39  34008KT  31.0F  SNOW    5:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089    5:1|  0.9|| 0.11|| 0.00|| 1.10  100|  0|  0150305/1600Z  40  34007KT  30.6F  SNPL    3:1| 0.2|| 0.05|| 0.00|| 0.065    5:1|  1.1|| 0.16|| 0.00|| 1.17   64| 36|  0150305/1700Z  41  34007KT  30.6F  SNOW    6:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    5:1|  1.3|| 0.16|| 0.00|| 1.19  100|  0|  0150305/1800Z  42  35006KT  30.6F  SNOW    7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.049    5:1|  1.6|| 0.16|| 0.00|| 1.24  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150305/1900Z  43  36008KT  30.5F  SNOW    7:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.074    6:1|  2.2|| 0.16|| 0.00|| 1.32  100|  0|  0150305/2000Z  44  36010KT  28.3F  SNOW   11:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094    7:1|  3.2|| 0.16|| 0.00|| 1.41  100|  0|  0150305/2100Z  45  36008KT  25.2F  SNOW   13:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120    8:1|  4.7|| 0.16|| 0.00|| 1.53  100|  0|  0150305/2200Z  46  36008KT  24.3F  SNOW   11:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.085    8:1|  5.6|| 0.16|| 0.00|| 1.62  100|  0|  0150305/2300Z  47  36008KT  24.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020    8:1|  5.8|| 0.16|| 0.00|| 1.64  100|  0|  0

Iad:

150305/1000Z  34  35010KT  33.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83    0|  0|100150305/1100Z  35  35010KT  32.4F  RAPL    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.86    0| 22| 78150305/1200Z  36  35012KT  32.1F  SNPL    3:1| 0.2|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.061    3:1|  0.2|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.92   40| 60|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150305/1300Z  37  35011KT  30.6F  SNOW    6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072    4:1|  0.6|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 0.99  100|  0|  0150305/1400Z  38  35009KT  29.7F  SNOW    7:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.091    5:1|  1.2|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 1.09  100|  0|  0150305/1500Z  39  34008KT  29.2F  SNOW    6:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.090    6:1|  1.8|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 1.17  100|  0|  0150305/1600Z  40  34008KT  28.8F  SNOW    6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081    6:1|  2.3|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 1.26  100|  0|  0150305/1700Z  41  34008KT  28.8F  SNOW    9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069    6:1|  2.9|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 1.32  100|  0|  0150305/1800Z  42  34008KT  28.8F  SNOW    7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056    6:1|  3.3|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 1.38  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150305/1900Z  43  33009KT  29.2F  SNOW    8:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058    7:1|  3.8|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 1.44  100|  0|  0150305/2000Z  44  34008KT  29.0F  SNOW   11:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104    7:1|  4.9|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 1.54  100|  0|  0150305/2100Z  45  36005KT  28.1F  SNOW   14:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.115    8:1|  6.5|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 1.66  100|  0|  0150305/2200Z  46  36006KT  27.4F  SNOW   10:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055    8:1|  7.0|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 1.71  100|  0|  0150305/2300Z  47  34008KT  26.5F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016    8:1|  7.2|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 1.73  100|  0|  0150306/0000Z  48  33011KT  24.7F  SNOW    9:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    8:1|  7.2|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 1.74  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150306/0100Z  49  33012KT  22.4F  SNOW    7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006    8:1|  7.3|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 1.74  100|  0|  0

BWI:

50305/1000Z  34  34007KT  33.9F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75    0|  0|100150305/1100Z  35  35007KT  33.5F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79    0|  6| 94150305/1200Z  36  35009KT  32.8F  SNPL    1:1| 0.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.016    1:1|  0.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.80   14| 83|  3----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150305/1300Z  37  35009KT  31.9F  SNOW    5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062    4:1|  0.3|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.86  100|  0|  0150305/1400Z  38  35007KT  31.4F  SNOW    6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073    5:1|  0.8|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.94  100|  0|  0150305/1500Z  39  33007KT  31.2F  SNOW    6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057    5:1|  1.1|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.99  100|  0|  0150305/1600Z  40  34006KT  31.2F  SNOW    7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057    6:1|  1.5|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.05  100|  0|  0150305/1700Z  41  02007KT  31.0F  SNOW    9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    6:1|  2.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.11  100|  0|  0150305/1800Z  42  02009KT  28.8F  SNOW    9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    7:1|  2.5|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.16  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150305/1900Z  43  01010KT  25.8F  SNOW    7:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043    7:1|  2.8|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.20  100|  0|  0150305/2000Z  44  35008KT  25.1F  SNOW   12:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.067    7:1|  3.5|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.27  100|  0|  0150305/2100Z  45  36007KT  24.2F  SNOW   14:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.117    9:1|  5.1|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.39  100|  0|  0150305/2200Z  46  36008KT  23.6F  SNOW   10:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069    9:1|  5.8|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.45  100|  0|  0150305/2300Z  47  35008KT  23.1F  SNOW    8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024    9:1|  6.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 1.48  100|  0|  0

MRB has not updated yet. I will post it once it does.

[stormtracker]

GFS is a mauling still

[snowfan]

Great run for all.

[needbiggerboat]

gfs is a smoke show

[Expat]

still plenty of snow after this!

[clskinsfan]

Wow. Even Richmond is in the game on the GFS.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I really question the speed of the GFS. It's getting that cold in fast

[84 Hour NAM]

South trend? Whoa

[mitchnick]

still plenty of snow after this!

I am not worthy....

[WinterWxLuvr]

Now the gfs seems to be the model on its own

[nj2va]

Great GFS run again though I still wonder if its too cold.  Right now, its an outlier on the changeover.  

[WEATHER53]

00z GFS has 0c 850 line crossing DCA at 06z THUR (1am THUR)

The cold press showing up around midnight.

[mitchnick]

wait....the NAM   

[midatlanticweather]

I seem to always be in the Mountain shadow or the dry air pushing down fast.. What an odd run..

[WinterWxLuvr]

wait....the NAM

It's much closer to the others than the gfs is

[mitchnick]

It's much closer to the others than the gfs is

frankly, I'd be happy with either at this point

[WinterWxLuvr]

South trend can stop now, please!!!!

A south trend on this type of event makes no sense to me...none

[needbiggerboat]

[ers-wxman1]

Imagine if it trends south into Richmond. That would be awful

[clskinsfan]

0Z NAM for MRB:

150305/0300Z  27  36008KT  35.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.104    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39    0|  0|100150305/0400Z  28  35005KT  33.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.123    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.51    0|  0|100150305/0500Z  29  33004KT  32.6F SNRAPL   0:1| 0.0|| 0.30|| 0.00|| 0.173    0:1|  0.0|| 0.30|| 0.00|| 0.69   33| 52| 14150305/0600Z  30  34006KT  32.6F  SNPL    1:1| 0.1|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.114    1:1|  0.1|| 0.49|| 0.00|| 0.80   16| 80|  4----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150305/0700Z  31  34008KT  32.8F  SNOW    5:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    2:1|  0.4|| 0.49|| 0.00|| 0.85   82|  0| 18150305/0800Z  32  35008KT  31.9F  SNPL    6:1| 0.4|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.064    3:1|  0.8|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 0.92   86| 14|  0150305/0900Z  33  34010KT  31.5F  SNOW    8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.077    4:1|  1.4|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 0.99  100|  0|  0150305/1000Z  34  34010KT  29.4F  SNOW    9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061    5:1|  1.9|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 1.06  100|  0|  0150305/1100Z  35  34010KT  28.3F  SNOW    9:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.054    6:1|  2.4|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 1.11  100|  0|  0150305/1200Z  36  34009KT  27.4F  SNOW    8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050    6:1|  2.8|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 1.16  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150305/1300Z  37  34009KT  26.7F  SNOW   13:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056    7:1|  3.5|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 1.21  100|  0|  0150305/1400Z  38  34009KT  25.8F  SNOW   14:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063    7:1|  4.4|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 1.28  100|  0|  0150305/1500Z  39  33008KT  25.1F  SNOW   12:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064    8:1|  5.2|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 1.34  100|  0|  0150305/1600Z  40  34007KT  25.1F  SNOW    8:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.055    8:1|  5.6|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 1.40  100|  0|  0150305/1700Z  41  33007KT  26.0F  SNOW    9:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.030    8:1|  5.9|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 1.43  100|  0|  0150305/1800Z  42  34007KT  26.7F  SNOW   13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025    8:1|  6.2|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 1.45  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---150305/1900Z  43  34008KT  26.5F  SNOW   13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.044    8:1|  6.8|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 1.50  100|  0|  0150305/2000Z  44  33008KT  26.1F  SNOW   15:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053    9:1|  7.6|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 1.55  100|  0|  0150305/2100Z  45  34009KT  24.7F  SNOW    9:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065    9:1|  8.1|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 1.61  100|  0|  0150305/2200Z  46  33011KT  22.7F  SNOW   14:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    9:1|  8.2|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 1.62  100|  0|  0150305/2300Z  47  32011KT  19.8F  SNOW   11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008    9:1|  8.3|| 0.51|| 0.00|| 1.63  100|  0|  0

[Huffwx]

A south trend on this type of event makes no sense to me...none

 

 

That's happened a lot this year and last with extreme arctic air.. I think this teases us down this way and adjusts north tomorrow..

[ers-wxman1]

A south trend on this type of event makes no sense to me...none

South trend means the arctic air and high is stronger and forcing the front further south. High and cold over power then the model shifts south. Cold air slower, surface low a bit stronger then trend north.

[mitchnick]

thing is, the GFS qpf as snow at BWI is less than 18Z because 18Z had all snow at 6Z and this run switches it around 8Z and only .69" total falls at BWI from 6Z until the end so it's probably .5"+

[winterymix]

well, I thought you said sundown and the sun sets before 7PM, but sim/rad link previously posted showed light snow still over us at 7PM

The good accumulating stuff will be over and done when relative humidity drops on the 700 mb chart.

[WinterWxLuvr]

South trend means the arctic air and high is stronger and forcing the front further south. High and cold over power then the model shifts south. Cold air slower, surface low a bit stronger then trend north.

Yes, I understand that. But typically models overdo cold push and mountains normally slow it down. I only see the GFS doing this.