cae Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM flips Baltimore at 12z, DC at 13z, keeps up good rates in the cities until about 22z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 it's a serious question, with respect to your credentials. curious on your thoughts. I'm not sure. I'm on my phone and was just asking the question to the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I've been using the DuPage page forever now and I never paid any attention to the text output part on the skewt. I'm quite oblivious it seems. Thanks for bringing that "new" feature to my attention. you're welcome I actually prefer the text output and will only check the skewt to make sure some warming didn't sneak in between the text mb levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This should save some people a headache trying to look at those black and white maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Better. USA_SNODI_sfc_045.gif More importantly, DProg/Dt from the last 3 NAM runs have trended farther south with the max snow axis. NAM is catching on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 it is not hard to understand at all looks like a pretty intense gradient between the artic high and the low coming up through western nc, thus the big moisture slug....si? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This should save some people a headache trying to look at those black and white maps. That's intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 no...DuPage College here's the link to the model page http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ once you click on that, click on the model off the horizontal menu once you click on the model, you will see on the left column of the page the hours for maps click on the hour you want, then put your mouse over the location you want-since you can;t be perfect, you can then input the exact coordinates near the bottom of the pop-up window that will show the skewt (BE SURE TO THEN CLICK ON "LOAD") if you want text, you'll see an option under the skewt to the right that says "Raw Sounding Text" to get the skewt back just click to the left of the text sounding to "Mean Layer Parcel" what's also cool is that while it's on the skewt, you can put your mouse to the left of the skewt and it will take you back to the prior map and if you roll over the right side it takes you to the next map period That's awesome Mitch. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM flips Baltimore at 12z, DC at 13z, keeps up good rates in the cities until about 22z. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 man, you said it and on the bottom left map is the 700mb RH and we will be under the heaviest shade That's it in a nutshell. We are now confident that robust snow will blanket the area. The big question could be, "How long will maintain a conveyer belt over our area before it shuts off?" The high rez NAM goes past sunset on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 it is not hard to understand at all Mitch--How much QPF does grey shaded dots = ? Half joking, half serious. Or is that just moisture plume it's showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 00z RGEM is ~17mm of snow and ~5mm of sleet for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This should save some people a headache trying to look at those black and white maps. Can you post the 30 or 33? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 16mm snow on RGEMN for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Mitch--How much QPF does grey shaded dots = ? Half joking, half serious. Or is that just moisture plume it's showing? the qpf map is the bottom right map and the legend is on top of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 00z RGEM is ~17mm of snow and ~5mm of sleet for DCA Wow, pretty much held serve from 18z. Looks to shut off Thursday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 16mm snow on RGEMN for DCA Yoda says 17, but I counted 16 in a hurry so, it's around that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It going to happen. Snow is coming. Nam is bending over now and models are holding. If GFS and euro,come in holding, it is a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Can you post the 30 or 33? Starts to taper off after that. You get a solid 12hrs worth of snow starting at 12z. 2-3hrs of sleet before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 keep in mind the precip is still going at 48hr. we probably have another 1-2 hours after 48hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 More importantly, DProg/Dt from the last 3 NAM runs have trended farther south with the max snow axis. NAM is catching on... Gottcha. Learning in progress! A particular rule of thumb was examined here: dprog/dt. Given a set of lagged forecasts from the same model all verifying at the same time, this rule of thumb suggests that if the forecasts show a trend, this trend is more likely than not to continue and thus provide useful information for correcting the most recent forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That's it in a nutshell. We are now confident that robust snow will blanket the area. The big question could be, "How long will maintain a conveyer belt over our area before it shuts off?" The high rez NAM goes past sunset on Thursday. add the RGEM (in case you didn't see it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Here are the 00z RGEM and NAM for areas around MD. The RGEM has been too dry around here for several events recently. I'd happily take a blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 IAD NAM COBB - storm totals...watch the gfs play bizzaro world and woop up the qpf, when that's usually the nam's job 150306/0500Z 53 33010KT 13.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 8:1| 7.3|| 0.07|| 0.00|| 1.74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 cold still pressing more on GFS at 12 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 add the RGEM (in case you didn't see it) It seems that we are done before 0Z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 My point and click has 1-2". That would be so confusing for non-weenies who don't understand what they're looking at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It seems that we are done before 0Z Friday. 700.jpg well, I thought you said sundown and the sun sets before 7PM, but sim/rad link previously posted showed light snow still over us at 7PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 00z GFS has 0c 850 line crossing DCA at 06z THUR (1am THUR) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 00z GFS has 0c 850 line crossing DCA at 03z THUR (10pm WED) Holy smokes. That is even faster than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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