March 5 Snow Thread-Model Discussion ONLY

[clskinsfan]

Seems like the surface is a little warm that early

 

Agreed. We dont get below freezing at the surface until right around 9z according to this run.

[WVclimo]

Seems like the surface is a little warm that early

The column is below freezing and so is the surface at 1:00 a.m. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KMRB.txt

This is what the NAM says falls after that:

[needbiggerboat]

39.27, -78.18

 

Jiha........

 

gfs is going to inflict serious pummelage on your area in an hour....ur in a good spot.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I think we just go NAM on precip and GFS on temps.

Or...I'll just go Euro all the way

[mitchnick]

39.27, -78.18

OK, I'll post starting with the 1st period before the change

[WinterWxLuvr]

The column is below freezing and so is the surface at 1:00 a.m. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_KMRB.txt

This is what the NAM says falls after that:

image.jpg

There's a warm layer at 750-800. Only 0.3 though

[WinterWxLuvr]

OK, I'll post starting with the 1st period before the change

Much appreciated

[mitchnick]

39.27, -78.18

30 hours-sleet bag

LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000   134                                                                 SFC  988   228   0.5   0.2  98  0.3   0.4 338   6 274.5 275.2 274.1 285.2  3.92  2  950   545  -0.7  -1.2  97  0.4  -0.9 338  22 276.4 277.1 274.9 286.6  3.69  3  900   975  -2.8  -3.4  95  0.6  -3.1 314  21 278.6 279.2 275.5 287.7  3.29  4  850  1432   0.6   0.5  99  0.2   0.5 255  19 286.8 287.6 281.3 300.0  4.65  5  800  1919   0.5   0.3  99  0.2   0.4 256  32 291.7 292.5 283.7 305.8  4.90  6  750  2436  -0.6  -0.8  98  0.2  -0.7 234  33 296.0 296.8 285.4 310.1  4.81  7  700  2988  -0.7  -0.9  99  0.2  -0.8 228  48 301.7 302.6 287.8 317.1  5.13  8  650  3579  -2.5  -2.6  99  0.1  -2.6 230  58 306.1 307.0 289.0 321.0  4.85  9  600  4211  -5.3  -5.4  99  0.1  -5.4 234  70 310.0 310.8 289.8 323.3  4.25 10  550  4892  -8.3  -8.4  99  0.1  -8.3 241  89 314.3 315.0 290.6 326.1  3.69 11  500  5626 -12.6 -12.8  98  0.2 -12.7 245  93 317.7 318.2 290.9 327.0  2.86

33 hrs-snow bomb

LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000   149                                                                 SFC  990   228  -0.2  -0.7  96  0.5  -0.4 332  10 273.8 274.4 273.3 283.7  3.67  2  950   557  -3.6  -4.2  95  0.6  -3.8 333  19 273.6 274.1 272.1 281.6  2.95  3  900   981  -7.2  -8.2  92  1.0  -7.5 330  25 274.1 274.5 271.4 280.4  2.28  4  850  1431  -1.2  -1.6  97  0.4  -1.4 264  22 284.9 285.6 279.6 296.2  3.98  5  800  1916   0.0  -0.3  98  0.3  -0.2 255  31 291.2 292.0 283.3 304.7  4.68  6  750  2432  -1.4  -1.6  99  0.2  -1.5 242  35 295.0 295.8 284.7 308.4  4.54  7  700  2981  -2.9  -3.0  99  0.2  -3.0 234  39 299.3 300.1 286.2 312.4  4.37  8  650  3567  -3.9  -4.1  99  0.2  -4.0 234  62 304.5 305.3 288.1 317.9  4.35  9  600  4198  -5.1  -5.3  99  0.1  -5.2 236  84 310.2 311.0 289.9 323.7  4.31 10  550  4878  -8.7  -8.8  99  0.1  -8.8 239  92 313.8 314.4 290.3 325.2  3.56 11  500  5610 -13.4 -13.8  97  0.3 -13.6 243  98 316.7 317.2 290.3 325.3  2.64

[clskinsfan]

I cant hotlink it but check out the sim radar at 33. NOVA to DC deathband from hell.

[mitchnick]

Much appreciated

here's the skewt for 33 hrs

[clskinsfan]

 

30 hours-sleet bag

LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000   134                                                                 SFC  988   228   0.5   0.2  98  0.3   0.4 338   6 274.5 275.2 274.1 285.2  3.92  2  950   545  -0.7  -1.2  97  0.4  -0.9 338  22 276.4 277.1 274.9 286.6  3.69  3  900   975  -2.8  -3.4  95  0.6  -3.1 314  21 278.6 279.2 275.5 287.7  3.29  4  850  1432   0.6   0.5  99  0.2   0.5 255  19 286.8 287.6 281.3 300.0  4.65  5  800  1919   0.5   0.3  99  0.2   0.4 256  32 291.7 292.5 283.7 305.8  4.90  6  750  2436  -0.6  -0.8  98  0.2  -0.7 234  33 296.0 296.8 285.4 310.1  4.81  7  700  2988  -0.7  -0.9  99  0.2  -0.8 228  48 301.7 302.6 287.8 317.1  5.13  8  650  3579  -2.5  -2.6  99  0.1  -2.6 230  58 306.1 307.0 289.0 321.0  4.85  9  600  4211  -5.3  -5.4  99  0.1  -5.4 234  70 310.0 310.8 289.8 323.3  4.25 10  550  4892  -8.3  -8.4  99  0.1  -8.3 241  89 314.3 315.0 290.6 326.1  3.69 11  500  5626 -12.6 -12.8  98  0.2 -12.7 245  93 317.7 318.2 290.9 327.0  2.86

33 hrs-snow bomb

LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000   149                                                                 SFC  990   228  -0.2  -0.7  96  0.5  -0.4 332  10 273.8 274.4 273.3 283.7  3.67  2  950   557  -3.6  -4.2  95  0.6  -3.8 333  19 273.6 274.1 272.1 281.6  2.95  3  900   981  -7.2  -8.2  92  1.0  -7.5 330  25 274.1 274.5 271.4 280.4  2.28  4  850  1431  -1.2  -1.6  97  0.4  -1.4 264  22 284.9 285.6 279.6 296.2  3.98  5  800  1916   0.0  -0.3  98  0.3  -0.2 255  31 291.2 292.0 283.3 304.7  4.68  6  750  2432  -1.4  -1.6  99  0.2  -1.5 242  35 295.0 295.8 284.7 308.4  4.54  7  700  2981  -2.9  -3.0  99  0.2  -3.0 234  39 299.3 300.1 286.2 312.4  4.37  8  650  3567  -3.9  -4.1  99  0.2  -4.0 234  62 304.5 305.3 288.1 317.9  4.35  9  600  4198  -5.1  -5.3  99  0.1  -5.2 236  84 310.2 311.0 289.9 323.7  4.31 10  550  4878  -8.7  -8.8  99  0.1  -8.8 239  92 313.8 314.4 290.3 325.2  3.56 11  500  5610 -13.4 -13.8  97  0.3 -13.6 243  98 316.7 317.2 290.3 325.3  2.64

 

Thanks for this Mitch!

[WinterWxLuvr]

here's the skewt for 33 hrs

Thanks Mitch. Is that a pay site?

[blueapple]

In the snow maps, is that really all snow or is it counting sleet as well? I know some algorithms only use 850 to sfc temps as indicators of snow, however, our warm layer is much higher (H7).

[ers-wxman1]

The NAM snows for 19 hours for those of us to the NW. It is really a beautiful run.

Wow. How does it only amount to 6-10?

[nj2va]

Thanks Mitch. Is that a pay site?

 

You can use this:  http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/and then click on which model you want.  Then click BUFKIT data.  You can click the map for a sounding and then click "text sounding" - or enter your lat/long for your location.  

[Disc]

Thanks Mitch. Is that a pay site?

 

I pulled my info from my reply to your post above from: http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

 

Soundings come out very quick and it's easy to navigate. I can't speak for where mitch got his text output though.

[psuhoffman]

Wow. How does it only amount to 6-10?

It doesnt snow consistently heavy the whole time, NAM kind of sends pulses or waves along the front, snows hard for a few hours then a lull. 

 

[Portsmouth Weather]

Cobb bufkit output. Text output of the models, like soundings.

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfsm&site=w54

Thanks for the link to the model data!

[mitchnick]

Thanks Mitch. Is that a pay site?

no...DuPage College

here's the link to the model page

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

once you click on that, click on the model off the horizontal menu

once you click on the model, you will see on the left column of the page the hours for maps

click on the hour you want, then put your mouse over the location you want-since you can;t be perfect, you can then input the exact coordinates near the bottom of the pop-up window that will show the skewt (BE SURE TO THEN CLICK ON "LOAD")

if you want text, you'll see an option under the skewt to the right that says "Raw Sounding Text"

to get the skewt back just click to the left of the text sounding to "Mean Layer Parcel"

what's also cool is that while it's on the skewt, you can put your mouse to the left of the skewt and it will take you back to the prior map and if you roll over the right side it takes you to the next map period

[yoda]

00z RGEM at 36 -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/513_100.gif

[needbiggerboat]

Wow. How does it only amount to 6-10?

 

aren't you supposed to tell us that?

[PhineasC]

00z RGEM at 36 -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/513_100.gif

Starting to really show a long moisture plume on these runs.

[Disc]

no...DuPage College

here's the link to the model page

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

once you click on that, click on the model off the horizontal menu

once you click on the model, you will see on the left column of the page the hours for maps

click on the hour you want, then put your mouse over the location you want-since you can;t be perfect, you can then input the exact coordinates near the bottom of the pop-up window that will show the skewt

if you want text, you'll see an option under the skewt to the right that says "Raw Sounding Text"

to get the skewt back just click to the left of the text sounding to "Mean Layer Parcel"

what's also cool is that while it's on the skewt, you can put your mouse to the left of the skewt and it will take you back to the prior map and if you roll over the right side it takes you to the next map period

I've been using the DuPage page forever now and I never paid any attention to the text output part on the skewt. I'm quite oblivious it seems. Thanks for bringing that "new" feature to my attention.

[ers-wxman1]

aren't you supposed to tell us that?

Are you really gonna go there man?

[needbiggerboat]

00z RGEM at 36 -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/513_100.gif

 

wtf does all that mean magellan?

[mitchnick]

Starting to really show a long moisture plume on these runs.

man, you said it

and on the bottom left map is the 700mb RH and we will be under the heaviest shade

[needbiggerboat]

Are you really gonna go there man?

 

it's a serious question, with respect to your credentials.  curious on your thoughts.

[ers-wxman1]

It doesnt snow consistently heavy the whole time, NAM kind of sends pulses or waves along the front, snows hard for a few hours then a lull.

Thanks. I'm on my phone and it's tough to tell with small screen.

[mitchnick]

wtf does all that mean magellan?

it is not hard to understand at all

[yoda]

http://meteocentre.com/models/models.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemreg&stn2_type=anal&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest-- color maps for 00z RGEM

 

Waiting for meteogram