Expat Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I'm at 39 just 2 miles west of the beltway in Fairfax county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 its 6z right now. Im suppose to be 35-36 degrees:( It's closer than the 12z run. It's too cold around here but pretty close NW.. don't think it matters locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 its 6z right now. Im suppose to be 35-36 degrees:( it was supposed to be mixing here or changing to snow. 38F and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I dunno. my personal recollection is it does maybe somewhat frequently end up being a bit wet in runs prior to the final run. Or it peak QPFs early then backs down even without much change elsewhere. It may not be the best tool to find maxes at this range.. That idea is often best left to the NAM or similar even if their maxes are not placed right. yes....we're kind of dumb to be looking at it....but hey...it's the euro...it's still good....RAP has the dryslot filling in from west to east from 6am-8am....and then we get tattooed late morning into mid afternoon....We'll probably sleet for a bit with the heavies and then flip...hopefully by 9am or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 yes....we're kind of dumb to be looking at it....but hey...it's the euro...it's still good....RAP has the dryslot filling in from west to east from 6am-8am....and then we get tattooed late morning into mid afternoon....We'll probably sleet for a bit with the heavies and then flip...hopefully by 9am or so.... I'm less worried about the storm happening than the timing.. I guess I should go to bed in case I have to watch +SN from work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 The NAM fire wx nest beautifully shows the transition of precip type. But it doesn't change DC to all snow until 15z. The latest HRRR concurs. yes...but the initial delay is more a function of a lull than anything else...it isn't like we are going to be ripping heavy sleet for 4 hours. Once the good returns come in, we'll probably flip within an hour. Probably flip 14z-15z....then we get clobbered... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I'm less worried about the storm happening than the timing.. I guess I should go to bed in case I have to watch +SN from work. There are going to be a lot of bad decisions made tomorrow morning when nothing is happening between like 6 and 8am...hopefully the RAP is right and we are getting somewhere by 7-8am...If it's 34 and lightly sleet/rain at 7-8am, people are going to go to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Problem is people will wake, look outside and say it's a bust or these idiots can't get anything right then get on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Let's be honest: one of the best parts of this storm will be those who freak out when they wake up and see 34F and wet roads and start freaking out. I just hope OPM doesn't succumb to that silliness. and yet...it's 3am and they still haven't closed....ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Let's be honest: one of the best parts of this storm will be those who freak out when they wake up and see 34F and wet roads and start freaking out. I just hope OPM doesn't succumb to that silliness. and yet...it's 3am and they still haven't closed....ugh. The call is happening right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Changeover to sleet in Eldersburg, 35 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 NAM is late to start but is heavy when it does. 0.7" QPF from 11am-5pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Ugh. That can't be right. They have unscheduled telework for flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Looks like OPM is open, but guess they still have another two hours or so to change their mind. Maybe they are expecting they can open, and then have an early dismissal around noon if things go downhill in the morning. But it is March. As Capital Weather Gang noted, this still could be a storm where the snow never really falls heavy enough, long enough, for major road accumulation. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Federal workers will obediently go to work. They'll hit the roads then the snow will start. They might get to go home early. Everyone hits the roads going back home all at the same time: recipe for commutageddon II. They probably should just save everyone a lot of needless hassle and close today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 That can't be right. They have unscheduled telework for flurries.Bizarre. Updated (purportedly) at 302am. What's most odd is that pretty much every news outlet has been talking about how the morning lull is going to be deceptive...it's not like this will be a surprise. Sure, a number or morons will whine about the wet roads at 8am...but temps are going to crash while snow falls throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Problem is people will wake, look outside and say it's a bust or these idiots can't get anything right then get on the roads. Not if they look at the 6Z NAM. Roughly 0.8 QPF for me between 15Z and 03Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Bizarre. Updated (purportedly) at 302am. What's most odd is that pretty much every news outlet has been talking about how the morning lull is going to be deceptive...it's not like this will be a surprise. Sure, a number or morons will whine about the wet roads at 8am...but temps are going to crash while snow falls throughout the day. But OPM has been burnt quite a few times before, closing in March... Not saying this was a smart decision, but it is sort of hard to obtain and keep major road issues in March during daylight hours. Year after year, forecasts predict bad conditions during a March storm. And most times, snow never really accumulates that much on roads. They may be thinking, 4 to 6 inches of snow over 12 hours, won't be that bad, at any given time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k94 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Never too late to get NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 OPM now closed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Nice to get OPM closed and nam'd at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 But OPM has been burnt quite a few times before, closing in March... Not saying this was a smart decision, but it is sort of hard to obtain and keep major road issues in March during daylight hours. Year after year, forecasts predict bad conditions during a March storm. And most times, snow never really accumulates that much on roads. They may be thinking, 4 to 6 inches of snow over 12 hours, won't be that bad, at any given time.You know what really burns OPM? When their employees die in car crashes. Now closed. HRRR looks juicy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 wpc hsd 302am DAY 1...STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING STRETCHING FROM THE OHVALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY ON DAY 1 MAXIMIZES BETWEEN05/15Z AND 05/21Z ACROSS VA/MD/SOUTHEAST PA/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ INTO LONG ISLAND NY.THE PRECIPITATION PHASE OCCURS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...REACHING ALINE FROM KDCA/KDOV/KACY BETWEEN 05/12Z AND 05/18Z. THE 00Z NAM APPEARED TOHAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE FROM SLEET TOSNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND THIS HAS AN IMPACT ON SNOWFALLAMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MD/DC/CENTRAL VA. THE LATERTIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER MEANS LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW (OUTSIDE OFBANDING...WHERE THE STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WIPES OUT THE REMAININGWARM LAYER BETWEEN 700 MB AND 650 MB). THIS REQUIRED MOVING THE 6TO 8 INCH CONTOUR CLOSER TO A DC METRO INTO SOUTHERN DE LINE(WHICH IS FURTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER FORECASTS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUSTINMFOX Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 wpc hsd 302am DAY 1... STRONG MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING STRETCHING FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC EARLY ON DAY 1 MAXIMIZES BETWEEN 05/15Z AND 05/21Z ACROSS VA/MD/SOUTHEAST PA/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ INTO LONG ISLAND NY. THE PRECIPITATION PHASE OCCURS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...REACHING A LINE FROM KDCA/KDOV/KACY BETWEEN 05/12Z AND 05/18Z. THE 00Z NAM APPEARED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE CHANGE FROM SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND THIS HAS AN IMPACT ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MD/DC/CENTRAL VA. THE LATER TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER MEANS LESS IN THE WAY OF SNOW (OUTSIDE OF BANDING...WHERE THE STRONG VERTICAL MOTION WIPES OUT THE REMAINING WARM LAYER BETWEEN 700 MB AND 650 MB). THIS REQUIRED MOVING THE 6 TO 8 INCH CONTOUR CLOSER TO A DC METRO INTO SOUTHERN DE LINE (WHICH IS FURTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER FORECASTS). Interesting, wonder why the totals were lowered for us then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Interesting, wonder why the totals were lowered for us then? becuase that analysis indicates there may be less snow. that would typically mean lower totals, if there is less snow 4-6 or 6-8 is still a solid event for march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 6z gfs is really juiced up. pretty agressive snow totals. 8+ regionwide assuming it is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 6z nam cobb outputs IAD - 7.6 DCA - 7.5 BWI - 7.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 From the most recent Sterling AFD @ 3:42am... AS OF 3 AM...SFC BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED TO NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR IS ONLY TRICKLING INTO THE AREA. THERE HAVE BEEN A SOME OBS OF SN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT THERE IS A TEMPORARY LULL IN RADAR THAT MAY TAKE UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK TO FILL BACK IN AND HAVE BETTER SNOW RATES SPREAD EAST. WX GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO SLOW DOWN THE CHANGEOVER...WHICH WILL PUSH SE REACHING THE SE EXTENT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID/LATE MORNING. SO JUST BECAUSE CONDITIONS MAY BE JUST WET AT DAYBREAK...CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE DURING THE MORNING. THERE STILL LOOKS LIKE A GOOD PROB OF A FEW HOURS OF SLEET MIXTURE...ESPECIALLY AS THE TRANSITION ZONE TRAVERSES FARTHER SE. FOR THESE REASONS...IN ADDITION TO A LARGE CHUNK OF SNOW FALLING DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS (MARCH SUN ANGLE)...SNOW TOTALS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK BY A FEW INCHES ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE AREA. NEVERTHELESS...THERE WILL STILL BE GOOD BANDING POTENTIAL. HAVE HEARD REPORTS OF NEARLY A FOOT OF SNOW IN N-CNTL KY (NOT TO DRAW A DIRECT CORRELATION TO THE LOCAL AREA...JUST THE POTENCY OF THE SYSTEM AND THE DEEP MOISTURE TAP). THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A WINDOW OF A FEW HOURS WHERE RATES COULD BE AN INCH PER HOUR OR MORE. THIS WOULD BE EARLY MORNING FOR NW SECTIONS...MIDDAY FOR THE METROS TO CNTL SHEN VALLEY...AFTERNOON FOR CNTL VA TO SRN MD. PINPOINTING BANDING LOCATION AND DURATION WILL ULTIMATELY INFLUENCE SNOW TOTALS SINCE IT WILL REPRESENT THE BEST CHANCE AT ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY. BLENDING IN CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FALL WILL BE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR TO THE SNOW. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY 6 PM THE SNOW MAY BE LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF SRN MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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