eurojosh Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I take offense. I never once approached the ledge or complained and pointed out every reason to not give up. Ah! you just reminded me. Time to troll the despair thread. The despair thread? Or the banter about banter (no banter) thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 This event is redemption for the March 5th and 6th bust of 2013. I will save that thought until after I see snow falling....I learned a big lesson about MA weather March 5, 2013. As to not be only banter-many of you might not look at the maps south of DC (why would you if you didn't live here) but I can tell you right now that every single model and every single run has been different with the amount of frozen in this area. The models do not seem to have a good handle on the southern edge at all. That makes the suspense more intense and fun....as long as we don't super bust with <1. I have been around long enough to be confident about making a personal call to gauge myself....not this time at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I think that the official theme song of the models for this season should be Katy Perry's "Hot n' Cold" "'Cause you're hot then you're coldYou're yes then you're noYou're in then you're outYou're up then you're downYou're wrong when it's rightIt's black and it's whiteWe fight, we break upWe kiss, we make up(You) You don't really want to stay, no(You) But you don't really want to go-oYou're hot then you're coldYou're yes then you're noYou're in then you're outYou're up then you're down" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 That's pretty hardcore. If Cray had better business sense and built something for less than a bazillion dollars they'd be a household name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 This event is redemption for the March 5th and 6th bust of 2013. ...and 2001, don't forget (though I wasn't here yet at the time that March). We seem to have an issue with that date and snow events. Funny, but right after the Ravens were eliminated from the playoffs, I made an offhanded joke that at least now, we shouldn't get screwed on a March 5-6 snow event, which happened both years they won the Super Bowl!! (ETA: I'm hoping we actually break that streak of bad luck tomorrow!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 My phone has more processing power Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 When did the model thread merge with the banter thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Now, here's what I want to know: What is it that the NAM and GFS are seeing (or think they're seeing) that could cut into our snow totals? Is it the incoming high pressure to the north? Can't see it being dry air with all the rain...Any informed opinions about this on here? My guess is that the GFS and NAM have delusions of grandeur and think that they are superior to other models. Reality may set in with the 0z run tonight as they cave. Like taking candy from a baby. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I will save that thought until after I see snow falling....I learned a big lesson about MA weather March 5, 2013. As to not be only banter-many of you might not look at the maps south of DC (why would you if you didn't live here) but I can tell you right now that every single model and every single run has been different with the amount of frozen in this area. The models do not seem to have a good handle on the southern edge at all. That makes the suspense more intense and fun....as long as we don't super bust with <1. I have been around long enough to be confident about making a personal call to gauge myself....not this time at all. That 2013 event still sticks in my craw as perhaps the biggest fail event since I've lived here (moved here in summer of 2001). Well, you could put Boxing Day 2010 up there of course. But in 2013, we were coming off two awful winters and we had that awful long streak of DC not getting a 2" event. That storm looked like it might finally break it and somewhat redeem those two winters. Then we got white rain, embarrassing closures that turned out to be unnecessary, etc. And it was so late in the year that was pretty well it (though some areas did well with snow on March 25, 2013...which happens to be my birthday...and we got snow again the same date last year!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 GGEM is another mauling for the area... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 When did the model thread merge with the banter thread? Models are pretty much over now.... we are in nowcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 that is pure hotness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 When did the model thread merge with the banter thread? When the mods went to bed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 The rule of thumb that GFS is good with northern stream systems and Euro is good with southern stream system really seems to apply here. The 1/26 euro bust was with a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Channel 11 is going 4-7" and channel 2 is going 6-9". Tom T is hugging the RAP like it is a hot woman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 GGEM is another mauling for the area... wow Sweet - still not updated on meteocentre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Channel 11 is going 4-7" and channel 2 is going 6-9". Tom T is hugging the RAP like it is a hot woman. Channel 4 (DC) 6 -8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Sweet - still not updated on meteocentre. hr 18 is the "sweet" frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 7-8" per the AWX maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 A thing of beauty. Used to be a remote sensing guy, now I am a hardware guy. That thing impresses even me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Channel 11 is going 4-7" and channel 2 is going 6-9". Tom T is hugging the RAP like it is a hot woman. What the heck is going on with them. They are all over the place. Earlier this morning they use the RPM as future cast but then use the GFS for snowfall totals. Then tonight when all the models juice up Tom doesn't acknowledge it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 When did the model thread merge with the banter thread? about 10 years ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 hr 18 is the "sweet" frame Naturally, WxBell is missing data on that panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 What the heck is going on with them. They are all over the place. Earlier this morning they use the RPM as future cast but then use the GFS for snowfall totals. Then tonight when all the models juice up Tom doesn't acknowledge it. He is a good met but he has his head up his a** a lot these days. There is like a 5% chance the low end of his range can verify here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Sweet - still not updated on meteocentre. 0.8" for DCA after 12z....of course that probably isn't all snow....but what's nice it it seems like the column cooling coincides with this lull filling in and has less to do with the cold push being insufficient or late...should mean less sleet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 As to not be only banter-many of you might not look at the maps south of DC (why would you if you didn't live here) but I can tell you right now that every single model and every single run has been different with the amount of frozen in this area. The models do not seem to have a good handle on the southern edge at all. That makes the suspense more intense and fun....as long as we don't super bust with <1. I have been around long enough to be confident about making a personal call to gauge myself....not this time at all. I saw that. I'd hate to be making a forecast for central VA right now. It will be interesting to see how the different models do down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Why do we ever doubt this model? What's wrong with us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 0.8" for DCA after 12z....of course that probably isn't all snow....but what's nice it it seems like the column cooling coincides with this lull filling in and has less to do with the cold push being insufficient or late...should mean less sleet.... Thanks. Yeah, if that's the case, we'd flip quickly to snow once the steadier/heavier stuff kicks in. Much rather this than waiting for stale air to filter in or it being delayed a few hours. Euro has been locked in for several runs now and hasn't wavered like some other models. Your forecast you issued this afternoon looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Why do we ever doubt this model? What's wrong with us? It's not always right....It could even be wrong now....but once it held at 12z it made the GFS 3-run blip seem a lot less believable.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 When the mods went to bed? I was busy. I'm back...about to clean it up. Giddyness over guys...take it back to banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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