BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 LWX UPDATED DISCO NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ESTABLISHED AS FAR EAST AS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING. SURFACE TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE COOLING...ALBEIT GRADUALLY AT THE START. MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN THE 40S...WITH SOME UPPER 30S OVER MD. THE NOTABLY COLDER AIR IS JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PA AND CENTRAL WV. MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THIS COLDER AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PROMOTE PRECIPITATION TO TURN FROM RAIN TO SNOW/SLEET OVERNIGHT. HAVE NOT MADE CHANGES TO THE SNOW FORECAST WITH THE COLDER AIR SO CLOSE AT HAND. DENSE FOG HAS ALSO BEEN AN ISSUE THIS EVENING WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EARLIER ADVISORY FOR BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METROS HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND LIGHT NW FLOW HAS ALLOWED VSBYS TO IMPROVE GRADUALLY. ADVISORY FOR ALBEMARLE/ORANGE COUNTIES IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. FOG WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT OVER THE REST OF THE PIEDMONT AND SRN MD LATE THIS EVENING UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OVERNIGHT...AM KEEPING FCST CONSISTENT IN TRANSITIONING FROM RA TO SNW W/ A SHORT PD OF PL IN BTWN. EXACT TIMING OF EACH STILL MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BY AN HR OR TWO EITHER WAY. BTTM LINE...BY SUNRISE XPCTG ALL SNOW BY SUNRISE TMRW N OF SHD-DCA-NAK. HV A SNPL OR PLRA MIX TO THE S. Im sorry but where is NAK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 RGEM is fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 00z RGEM looks like Baltimore flips to snow at about 12z. Around 14z for DC. Should be a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Im sorry but where is NAK? No clue lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Still divergence in forecast soundings. The RAP is a little cooler than the NAM for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Im sorry but where is NAK? Naval Acadamy/annapolis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 No clue lol Annapolis-Naval Academy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Having a hard time telling the light light light light purple from the light light light light light purple. Lol, I agree, I hate the colors on those things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Still divergence in forecast soundings. The RAP is a little cooler than the NAM for some reason. RAP_255_2015030418_F16_TVMXC_SFC_500_MB.png It has higher res right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 00z RGEM looks like Baltimore flips to snow at about 12z. Around 14z for DC. Should be a good hit. looks better than 18Z by a hair using my abacus and black and white maps EDIT: RH map suggests maybe some light snow lingers after 7PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Still divergence in forecast soundings. The RAP is a little cooler than the NAM for some reason. It has higher res right? No clue. My point is that it is tricky to predict how long sleet will prevail before the switch to snow. LWX seems to think the sleet phase will be brief but forecast soundings seem to require some time even beyond 12 Z to chill the entire column. Still some uncertainly. This would be no fun if there were no mystery to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 looks better than 18Z by a hair using my abacus and black and white maps EDIT: RH map suggests maybe some light snow lingers after 7PM I am always amazed at how well you can read those things. This site says you're right. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2015030500/I_nw_r1_EST_2015030500_025.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I am always amazed at how well you can read those things. This site says you're right. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2015030500/I_nw_r1_EST_2015030500_025.png He's a seasoned veteran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I am always amazed at how well you can read those things. This site says you're right. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/2015030500/I_nw_r1_EST_2015030500_025.png aww shucks, it's my new glasses....like 'em? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 From TerpWeather on Twitter: ooz NAM initialized too warm. Cold front at 2z (10pm--now) has freezing line in Garret County, while in reality it's already in Allegany County. Quick defense, (I'm a lurker) that was a misread. My mesoanalysis got messed up for some reason, GREarth updated the 850 layer between 9:30 and 10...why? who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Quick defense, (I'm a lurker) that was a misread. My mesoanalysis got messed up It actually looks rather in-line no? eta: maybe a smidgen ahead of the model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 He's a seasoned veteran. I feel like those aren't computer-produced... There some guy in a basement in Ottawa with thick glasses, paper, a black pen and a scanner, scribbling as fast as he can.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Quick defense, (I'm a lurker) that was a misread. My mesoanalysis got messed up Fair enough: will edit. Mods, please delete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 It actually looks rather in-line no? Yes, 3z matches 10pm obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Quick defense, (I'm a lurker) that was a misread. My mesoanalysis got messed up for some reason, GREarth updated the 850 layer between 9:30 and 10...why? who knows front definitely past HGR http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KHGR.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Here's the 00z NAM snow qpf map for the MD area. Meteogram says about 12mm of snow for DC, a little over 6mm sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Don't know if this got posted yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 00z RGEM is 17mm snow (~0.65") at DCA and 4mm sleet (~0.15") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Where's that NAM radar sat mashup from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 00z RGEM is 17mm snow (~0.65") at DCA and 4mm sleet (~0.15") Very nice, 6-7 inches of snow on top of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 00z RGEM is 17mm snow at DCA and 4mm sleet Good to see this bump up from 12z and 18z. Flips around 13z to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 anyone know for certain whether all those snow maps for the different models always include sleet with the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 00z RGEM is 17mm snow at DCA and 4mm sleet Nice, trend seems to be towards the Euro. RGEM I trust a lot more than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Where's that NAM radar sat mashup from? The free wxbell contender...tidbits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 91% chance of 4" or more according to LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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