Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Little more action along and north of the M/D line and up toward NYC. Glad the gradient is less. Yes, it is a relief to see that gradient expanded out more. Hopefully that's more correct in terms of the precip distribution to the anemic amounts earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Watching the progression of the 30.10 baro which will allow for 0C in the column I calculate it's arrival in DC at 08Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Sent from my iPhone That can't be right. It shows a relative minimum in MoCo near Rockville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Rain until 4am...then a sleet storm until 12-15Z when snow starts with 4-6 inches DC and suburbs with locally higher amounts. Seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Man, that looks awesome!!! Still ripping snow at 1pm! Much different look than 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Sent from my iPhone Having a hard time telling the light light light light purple from the light light light light light purple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 4KM massively improved over 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Wondering about that myself. What is your opinion on how it's now depicting the moisture and precip fields? Coming around to something more realistic...or just an artifact of its thermal profiles? I mean...the Euro had similar (?) precip but it was far better on the thermals for us. Not sure if this makes sense how I posed those questions. One, it's the NAM so it should be taken with a grain of salt. Want to see 4k, but my guess is the precip is delayed a bit and that is why the column warms later...my guess is the same as before..once steady precip resumes, we sleet for a while before changing over...perhaps around 9am? and then we get raked for the next 7-8 hours....This forum is already virtually unreadable...tomorrow morning will be insufferable when people are like "WHERE"S MY SNOW"...."THIS SUCKS"...."TOTAL BUST - 0"!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Watching the progression of the 30.10 baro which will allow for 0C in the column I calculate it's arrival in DC at 08Z that's way too early..we won't be snowing at 3am...there is still a big warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 4k nam looks great as well. I feel like 6-10 for the far nw burbs is a lock at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 One, it's the NAM so it should be taken with a grain of salt. Want to see 4k, but my guess is the precip is delayed a bit and that is why the column warms later...my guess is the same as before..once steady precip resumes, we sleet for a while before changing over...perhaps around 9am? and then we get raked for the next 7-8 hours....This forum is already virtually unreadable...tomorrow morning will be insufferable when people are like "WHERE"S MY SNOW"...."THIS SUCKS"...."TOTAL BUST - 0"!!" Thanks. I see what you're saying. And yes, there's been a lot of unreadable stuff already in the past day. My take-away mostly is that it's a shift for the better in terms of precip amounts compared to previously. If the GFS comes in notably wetter, that will make a lot of people feel better I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Consensus amongst forecasters looks to be 6-10 in the sweet spot. Like the consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I can see why the column takes longer on the NAM...big lull/quasi-lull from 8z to 13z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 One, it's the NAM so it should be taken with a grain of salt. Want to see 4k, but my guess is the precip is delayed a bit and that is why the column warms later...my guess is the same as before..once steady precip resumes, we sleet for a while before changing over...perhaps around 9am? and then we get raked for the next 7-8 hours....This forum is already virtually unreadable...tomorrow morning will be insufferable when people are like "WHERE"S MY SNOW"...."THIS SUCKS"...."TOTAL BUST - 0"!!" I have told most of my friends and family not to freak out at 8 am tomorrow when we are more than likely 34 and drizzle. My only hope for this storm is sustained SN+ for two hours. I don't care what I measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Having a hard time telling the light light light light purple from the light light light light light purple. try some more light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I can see why the column takes longer on the NAM...big lull/quasi-lull from 8z to 13z RR kind of has it too. Needs to fill in. Part of why I doubt the bigger amounts is just that the time where we get decent snow is not all that long (6hrs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Having a hard time telling the light light light light purple from the light light light light light purple. The further you are from the blues the more purple you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 that's way too early..we won't be snowing at 3am...there is still a big warm layer I believe the length of time it sleets will be short. This is an arctic air mass coming in, it will overwhelm quite quickly. I think we see mixing by around 1am, all snow by 5/6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Anyone hearing some pings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 RR kind of has it too. Needs to fill in. Part of why I doubt the bigger amounts is just that the time where we get decent snow is not all that long (6hrs). yeah..it's pretty easy now to see why we were snow by 14z on the 18z run..we were ripping by 12-13z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Totally not surprised that the heaviest precip would trend north....and from reading the posts...looks like cold air is delayed a bit. No surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 6-8 still a good bet. 21Z sref saying changeover just before 12Z but 1"/hour through 18Z then tapering off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Sounding suggests DC is gonna get accumulating sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 00z gfs dump just kicked off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foggy Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I can see why the column takes longer on the NAM...big lull/quasi-lull from 8z to 13z Euro only had around .20-.25 from 6z-12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Sounding suggests DC is gonna get accumulating sleet. NAM_218_2015030500_F12_39.0000N_77.0000W.png What is warming the 700mb level to that warm? This is the sounding from 2 hours ago from IAD: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Euro only had around .20-.25 from 6z-12z. euro sussed out the lull way before the others (UKMET did too)....it's just longer and more pronounced on this run of the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 LWX UPDATED DISCO NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA...WITH LIGHTNORTHERLY WINDS ESTABLISHED AS FAR EAST AS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THEFRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA LATE THISEVENING. SURFACE TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE COOLING...ALBEITGRADUALLY AT THE START. MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN THE 40S...WITHSOME UPPER 30S OVER MD. THE NOTABLY COLDER AIR IS JUST TO THENORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZINGACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PA AND CENTRAL WV. MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILLBE HOW QUICKLY THIS COLDER AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ANDPROMOTE PRECIPITATION TO TURN FROM RAIN TO SNOW/SLEET OVERNIGHT.HAVE NOT MADE CHANGES TO THE SNOW FORECAST WITH THE COLDER AIR SOCLOSE AT HAND.DENSE FOG HAS ALSO BEEN AN ISSUE THIS EVENING WITH ABUNDANT LOWLEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EARLIERADVISORY FOR BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METROS HAS BEEN CANCELLED ASSLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND LIGHT NW FLOW HAS ALLOWED VSBYS TO IMPROVEGRADUALLY. ADVISORY FOR ALBEMARLE/ORANGE COUNTIES IN EFFECT UNTILMIDNIGHT. FOG WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT OVER THE REST OF THE PIEDMONTAND SRN MD LATE THIS EVENING UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.OVERNIGHT...AM KEEPING FCST CONSISTENT IN TRANSITIONING FROM RATO SNW W/ A SHORT PD OF PL IN BTWN. EXACT TIMING OF EACH STILL MAYNEED TO BE ADJUSTED BY AN HR OR TWO EITHER WAY. BTTM LINE...BYSUNRISE XPCTG ALL SNOW BY SUNRISE TMRW N OF SHD-DCA-NAK. HV A SNPLOR PLRA MIX TO THE S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 What is warming the 700mb level to that warm? This is the sounding from 2 hours ago from IAD: southwesterly flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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