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March 5 Snow Thread-Model Discussion ONLY


stormtracker

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Wondering about that myself.  What is your opinion on how it's now depicting the moisture and precip fields?  Coming around to something more realistic...or just an artifact of its thermal profiles?  I mean...the Euro had similar (?) precip but it was far better on the thermals for us.  Not sure if this makes sense how I posed those questions.

 

One, it's the NAM so it should be taken with a grain of salt. Want to see 4k, but my guess is the precip is delayed a bit and that is why the column warms later...my guess is the same as before..once steady precip resumes, we sleet for a while before changing over...perhaps around 9am?  and then we get raked for the next 7-8 hours....This forum is already virtually unreadable...tomorrow morning will be insufferable when people are like "WHERE"S MY SNOW"...."THIS SUCKS"...."TOTAL BUST - 0"!!"

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One, it's the NAM so it should be taken with a grain of salt. Want to see 4k, but my guess is the precip is delayed a bit and that is why the column warms later...my guess is the same as before..once steady precip resumes, we sleet for a while before changing over...perhaps around 9am?  and then we get raked for the next 7-8 hours....This forum is already virtually unreadable...tomorrow morning will be insufferable when people are like "WHERE"S MY SNOW"...."THIS SUCKS"...."TOTAL BUST - 0"!!"

 

Thanks.  I see what you're saying.  And yes, there's been a lot of unreadable stuff already in the past day.  My take-away mostly is that it's a shift for the better in terms of precip amounts compared to previously.  If the GFS comes in notably wetter, that will make a lot of people feel better I think.

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One, it's the NAM so it should be taken with a grain of salt. Want to see 4k, but my guess is the precip is delayed a bit and that is why the column warms later...my guess is the same as before..once steady precip resumes, we sleet for a while before changing over...perhaps around 9am? and then we get raked for the next 7-8 hours....This forum is already virtually unreadable...tomorrow morning will be insufferable when people are like "WHERE"S MY SNOW"...."THIS SUCKS"...."TOTAL BUST - 0"!!"

I have told most of my friends and family not to freak out at 8 am tomorrow when we are more than likely 34 and drizzle. My only hope for this storm is sustained SN+ for two hours. I don't care what I measure.

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that's way too early..we won't be snowing at 3am...there is still a big warm layer

I believe the length of time it sleets will be short. This is an arctic air mass coming in, it will overwhelm quite quickly.

I think we see mixing by around 1am, all snow by 5/6am.

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LWX UPDATED DISCO NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA...WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS ESTABLISHED AS FAR EAST AS THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA LATE THIS
EVENING. SURFACE TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE COOLING...ALBEIT
GRADUALLY AT THE START. MOST OF THE CWA REMAINS IN THE 40S...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S OVER MD. THE NOTABLY COLDER AIR IS JUST TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...WITH TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PA AND CENTRAL WV. MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL
BE HOW QUICKLY THIS COLDER AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION AND
PROMOTE PRECIPITATION TO TURN FROM RAIN TO SNOW/SLEET OVERNIGHT.
HAVE NOT MADE CHANGES TO THE SNOW FORECAST WITH THE COLDER AIR SO
CLOSE AT HAND.

DENSE FOG HAS ALSO BEEN AN ISSUE THIS EVENING WITH ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EARLIER
ADVISORY FOR BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON METROS HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND LIGHT NW FLOW HAS ALLOWED VSBYS TO IMPROVE
GRADUALLY. ADVISORY FOR ALBEMARLE/ORANGE COUNTIES IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. FOG WILL ALSO BE PREVALENT OVER THE REST OF THE PIEDMONT
AND SRN MD LATE THIS EVENING UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OVERNIGHT...AM KEEPING FCST CONSISTENT IN TRANSITIONING FROM RA
TO SNW W/ A SHORT PD OF PL IN BTWN. EXACT TIMING OF EACH STILL MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BY AN HR OR TWO EITHER WAY. BTTM LINE...BY
SUNRISE XPCTG ALL SNOW BY SUNRISE TMRW N OF SHD-DCA-NAK. HV A SNPL
OR PLRA MIX TO THE S.

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