clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The NAM is coming around to the other guidance. There is no way to complain about 10-12 inches IMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM is snow here by hr 30 (06Z). Another 0.70"+ falls after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Now that's not exactly the evolution I expected in the NAM, especially after seeing the early part. So looks like a general ~6"+ or there about for the DC area (just going by the snow maps...I know, I know!). A layer of sleet underneath that to start? Ironically, it's similar to the Euro in that the timing of the heavy precip is during much of the day Thursday when the cold air is in place. Looks like a good trend. Couple of questions, if anyone had these details: first, how cold does it get us during Thursday...and second, approx. how much sleet is there prior to going over to snow? Looks like it's snowing by around 12Z, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Is this the regular or 4k nam? I would think the old nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Turns out pretty good. Best 700 vv's are just south Thurs afternoon, but still room to move. How much precip falls at DCA after 15Z? Somewhere in the .30 to .40 range or am I misreading the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 now, time-wise, NAM is closer to Euro whoda thunk Yes, the irony! I didn't see you posted the same thing as I was mentioning it as well, LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 thanks You'll have to change the airport code, but you're welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 12Z at BWI is certainly all snow (skewt confirms no warming in between levels) LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1015 40 0.2 -1.0 91 1.2 -0.3 343 10 272.2 272.7 272.1 281.6 3.48 1 1000 160 -0.9 -2.3 90 1.4 -1.4 346 16 272.3 272.8 271.8 281.0 3.23 2 950 567 -4.5 -5.4 93 0.9 -4.8 349 24 272.6 273.0 271.1 279.9 2.68 3 900 990 -7.8 -9.3 89 1.5 -8.3 340 30 273.4 273.8 270.7 279.2 2.09 4 850 1439 -3.0 -3.2 98 0.3 -3.1 279 16 283.0 283.6 278.2 293.0 3.54 5 800 1922 -1.9 -2.1 99 0.2 -2.0 251 19 289.1 289.8 281.7 300.9 4.10 6 750 2434 -1.6 -1.7 99 0.1 -1.7 230 31 294.8 295.6 284.5 308.0 4.49 7 700 2985 -0.5 -0.7 99 0.2 -0.6 233 60 301.9 302.9 287.9 317.6 5.21 8 650 3577 -2.2 -2.4 99 0.2 -2.3 236 76 306.4 307.3 289.2 321.6 4.94 9 600 4210 -5.1 -5.3 99 0.1 -5.2 242 86 310.2 311.0 289.9 323.7 4.30 10 550 4888 -9.3 -10.0 95 0.7 -9.6 247 96 313.1 313.7 289.8 323.5 3.26 11 500 5621 -12.7 -13.7 92 1.1 -13.0 245 100 317.6 318.1 290.6 326.3 2.64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I am still not sure how that second batch of precip manages to readvance north despite strong CAA at 850mb. The smarter models keep the northern edge stalled or drifting south the whole time. In other words, The NAM is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Better. USA_SNODI_sfc_045.gif Yes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Is this the regular or 4k nam? I would think the old nam. This is the 12km NAM. The Hi-res NAM (4km) will be out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Death band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The NAM snows for 19 hours for those of us to the NW. It is really a beautiful run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 How much precip falls at DCA after 15Z? Somewhere in the .30 to .40 range or am I misreading the maps. Looks like 0.5 in the 12 hour period ending 3z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like over .50 for DCA after 15Z so 5 or 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 12Z at BWI is certainly all snow (skewt confirms no warming in between levels) LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1015 40 0.2 -1.0 91 1.2 -0.3 343 10 272.2 272.7 272.1 281.6 3.48 1 1000 160 -0.9 -2.3 90 1.4 -1.4 346 16 272.3 272.8 271.8 281.0 3.23 2 950 567 -4.5 -5.4 93 0.9 -4.8 349 24 272.6 273.0 271.1 279.9 2.68 3 900 990 -7.8 -9.3 89 1.5 -8.3 340 30 273.4 273.8 270.7 279.2 2.09 4 850 1439 -3.0 -3.2 98 0.3 -3.1 279 16 283.0 283.6 278.2 293.0 3.54 5 800 1922 -1.9 -2.1 99 0.2 -2.0 251 19 289.1 289.8 281.7 300.9 4.10 6 750 2434 -1.6 -1.7 99 0.1 -1.7 230 31 294.8 295.6 284.5 308.0 4.49 7 700 2985 -0.5 -0.7 99 0.2 -0.6 233 60 301.9 302.9 287.9 317.6 5.21 8 650 3577 -2.2 -2.4 99 0.2 -2.3 236 76 306.4 307.3 289.2 321.6 4.94 9 600 4210 -5.1 -5.3 99 0.1 -5.2 242 86 310.2 311.0 289.9 323.7 4.30 10 550 4888 -9.3 -10.0 95 0.7 -9.6 247 96 313.1 313.7 289.8 323.5 3.26 11 500 5621 -12.7 -13.7 92 1.1 -13.0 245 100 317.6 318.1 290.6 326.3 2.64 Mitch, can you link this site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 DCA definitely switches over between 12Z and 15Z....here are the soundings from both times LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1013 56 0.5 -0.5 93 1.0 0.1 342 9 272.6 273.2 272.6 282.4 3.64 1 1000 160 -0.3 -1.3 93 1.0 -0.7 345 14 272.8 273.4 272.5 282.2 3.47 2 950 568 -3.9 -4.5 96 0.6 -4.1 352 23 273.2 273.7 271.8 281.1 2.87 3 900 991 -7.2 -7.6 97 0.4 -7.3 351 27 274.1 274.5 271.6 280.8 2.40 4 850 1441 -1.9 -2.1 98 0.2 -2.0 281 12 284.2 284.8 279.1 295.1 3.85 5 800 1923 -2.7 -2.8 99 0.2 -2.8 243 12 288.3 289.0 281.1 299.4 3.87 6 750 2438 1.0 0.8 99 0.2 0.9 227 45 297.6 298.6 286.6 313.6 5.41 7 700 2994 0.7 0.6 99 0.2 0.7 234 72 303.3 304.3 288.9 320.5 5.71 8 650 3588 -1.6 -1.7 99 0.2 -1.7 240 80 307.2 308.1 289.7 323.1 5.18 9 600 4221 -5.3 -5.5 99 0.2 -5.4 246 87 309.9 310.7 289.7 323.2 4.22 10 550 4901 -8.4 -11.0 81 2.6 -9.4 247 93 314.1 314.7 289.9 323.8 2.99 11 500 5635 -12.5 -16.8 71 4.2 -13.9 245 94 317.8 318.2 290.2 324.6 2.06 LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1016 56 -0.6 -2.1 90 1.4 -1.2 333 8 271.3 271.8 271.1 280.0 3.23 1 1000 185 -2.2 -3.3 92 1.1 -2.6 337 11 271.0 271.5 270.6 279.1 3.00 2 950 590 -5.9 -6.7 94 0.8 -6.2 350 17 271.2 271.6 269.8 277.8 2.43 3 900 1010 -9.1 -10.5 89 1.4 -9.5 4 21 272.1 272.4 269.5 277.4 1.90 4 850 1454 -6.4 -7.4 92 1.1 -6.7 315 23 279.5 279.9 274.9 286.7 2.57 5 800 1933 -3.7 -4.1 97 0.4 -3.9 252 14 287.2 287.8 280.1 297.3 3.52 6 750 2443 -2.5 -2.7 99 0.2 -2.6 231 32 293.8 294.6 283.8 306.1 4.18 7 700 2993 -0.8 -0.9 99 0.2 -0.9 230 64 301.6 302.6 287.8 317.1 5.12 8 650 3585 -1.9 -2.1 99 0.2 -2.0 237 79 306.8 307.7 289.5 322.3 5.05 9 600 4219 -5.1 -5.2 99 0.1 -5.1 243 91 310.2 311.1 289.9 323.8 4.32 10 550 4897 -9.0 -9.6 96 0.5 -9.2 246 93 313.4 314.0 290.0 324.2 3.37 11 500 5628 -13.8 -15.1 90 1.3 -14.2 245 98 316.2 316.7 290.0 324.0 2.37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This is the 12km NAM. The Hi-res NAM (4km) will be out soon. That is what I thought. But the 4k normally comes around much faster than it older version. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The NAM snows for 19 hours for those of us to the NW. It is really a beautiful run. What hour do you estimate snow falling out here? Best I could figure was sometime around 1am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I am still not sure how that second batch of precip manages to readvance north despite strong CAA at 850mb. The smarter models keep the northern edge stalled or drifting south the whole time. In other words, The NAM is wrong. Wave along the front? I thought that was main reason for getting significant precip in the cold air, at least; plus the stream of Gulf/Pacific moisture going up and over the front. Also, the Euro did kind of a similar thing with a second batch of sorts. Not saying this scenario is absolutely correct, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 How much precip falls at DCA after 15Z? Somewhere in the .30 to .40 range or am I misreading the maps. I'm getting a range of 0.31 inch to 0.6 inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 What hour do you estimate snow falling out here? Best I could figure was sometime around 1am This run its at 3Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 4km http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam-hires/00/nam-hires_namer_045_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This run its at 3Z. Seems like the surface is a little warm that early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Nice.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Mitch, can you link this site? what are your coord again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I want to marry the High Rez NAM. It keeps the good times rolling until past sunset on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Nice.. brought the heavy stuff south some.....Bernie Rayno is on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 what are your coord again? 39.27, -78.18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Seems like the surface is a little warm that early Looks like all snow by 9z for your area. It's still a bit warm at 6z, thus it's sleety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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