Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I'm soooo pissed.....Dupage soundings are all screwed up I know at 15 hrs. I'm all snow, but everything before that is useless ??? You mean unreadable, or they look like crap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 7" not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 It looks like the total precip from 12z-0z is around 0.7-0.8 eyeballing the IWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Torrential sleet to heavy snow and widespread 6"+ sounds ok to me. Yeah, guess I could deal with a sleet base topped with 6"+. Twist my arm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Nam should be decent with thermals at this range. I'm not going to doubt the flip time or surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 NAM is a healthy 5-7" for the DC area by 24 hours, wrapping up by then.all this hooping and hollerin and shocked faces and nams back etc and it's still 5-7?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 and so is 725mb I guess it could be snow, but its rimed snow What is rimed snow? I hear the term thrown around alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 all this hooping and hollerin and shocked faces and nams back etc and it's still 5-7?? More like 6-10" for N and W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Nam should be decent with thermals at this range. I'm not going to doubt the flip time or surface. I wish you hadn't said that http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030500&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_025.gif NAM'd Hmm, looks like a pretty sharp drop-off right around DC? Not that it's really worth parsing those snow maps. However, compared to earlier (for which these *are* perhaps more useful...in terms of comparing run-to-run changes I mean), it looks a fair bit better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 ??? You mean unreadable, or they look like crap? I think every sounding before 15 hours is last night's or 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 It looks like the total precip from 12z-0z is around 0.7-0.8 eyeballing the IWM. we're not snow on this run until 15z, and even then it is borderline...I don't buy it, but there might be a warm/wet trade off of sorts...it's not even that cold at the surface until late afternoon...My guess is it is too warm...It has been handling the thermal profiles of this storm absolutely wretchedly...putting insanely warm noses where other models don't have them,... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I was just out walking around and there's a ton of standing water everywhere. Is heavy sleet tomorrow morning ultimately a good thing? Seems like it could build a base the snow can accumulate on rather than it melting away on puddles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Man what a crappy run for the southern folks. That warm layer is absolutely killing us down here. It's a blowtorch above 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I wish you hadn't said that http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030500&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=025 Mitch, it's pretty close @ 12z. IWM maps could be splitting hairs between 12-15z. Chips fall time. It's hot and heavy from 12-21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 we're not snow on this run until 15z, and even then it is borderline...I don't buy it, but there might be a warm/wet trade off of sorts...it's not even that cold at the surface until late afternoon...My guess is it is too warm...It has been handling the thermal profiles of this storm absolutely wretchedly...putting insanely warm noses where other models don't have them,... Wondering about that myself. What is your opinion on how it's now depicting the moisture and precip fields? Coming around to something more realistic...or just an artifact of its thermal profiles? I mean...the Euro had similar (?) precip but it was far better on the thermals for us. Not sure if this makes sense how I posed those questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Mitch, it's pretty close @ 12z. IWM maps could be splitting hairs between 12-15z. Chips fall time. It's hot and heavy from 12-21z After 15z DC gets over half an inch of qpf, so it must be spitting out really low ratios or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 we're not snow on this run until 15z, and even then it is borderline...I don't buy it, but there might be a warm/wet trade off of sorts...it's not even that cold at the surface until late afternoon...My guess is it is too warm...It has been handling the thermal profiles of this storm absolutely wretchedly...putting insanely warm noses where other models don't have them,... We can hope, I'm just happy to see it move towards the EURO on QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 anxious to see the hi/res NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 we're not snow on this run until 15z, and even then it is borderline...I don't buy it, but there might be a warm/wet trade off of sorts...it's not even that cold at the surface until late afternoon...My guess is it is too warm...It has been handling the thermal profiles of this storm absolutely wretchedly...putting insanely warm noses where other models don't have them,... Looking at 700 between the Euro and NAM, NAM is ever so slightly warmer than 12z Euro at 12z tomorrow. We were just below at 700 on the Euro and just above on the NAM. Interesting to see what the 4km NAM does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Nam has 850's @ -6 @ 12z and -9 @ 15z. I'm not sure I recall any sleet storms with those kind of 850's dropping like that. Could be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_025.gif NAM'd Looks like a spitting image of the euro snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 all this hooping and hollerin and shocked faces and nams back etc and it's still 5-7?? they should remove that stupid emoticon from the site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Little more action along and north of the M/D line and up toward NYC. Glad the gradient is less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 we're not snow on this run until 15z, and even then it is borderline...I don't buy it, but there might be a warm/wet trade off of sorts...it's not even that cold at the surface until late afternoon...My guess is it is too warm...It has been handling the thermal profiles of this storm absolutely wretchedly...putting insanely warm noses where other models don't have them,... I don't know enough about the levels of the atmosphere but according to terpweather on twittter, using mesoanalysis from SPC, the 700mb level is at zero or just below 0c at the moment from DC north... +2 to the south of DC. So I am confused as to why NAM would have it slightly above zero in 12/15 HRs, unless it warms slightly in the coming hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Looks like a spitting image of the euro snow map. Similar, perhaps. But the NAM has a sharper drop-off in the snow amounts crossing right around DC and south which the Euro didn't have as I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 .96 frozen at jyo .73 of which is for sure snow...how much of the .23 is sleet or snow I don't know but wrap this motha up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Anybody on the roads tomorrow from noon to 2pm will still be on the roads @ 6pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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