Ravens94 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Beat me too it thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Consistently what? 21Z SREF essentially has NOVA-DC-Balt well within the 0.5" precip contour for the 12 hour period from 12Z-00Z tomorrow. Looks like the axis of the 0.25 and 0.50 contours have edged/expanded somewhat more to the northwest too compared to the 15Z run. But otherwise it's more or less very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 21Z SREF essentially has NOVA-DC-Balt well within the 0.5" precip contour for the 12 hour period from 12Z-00Z tomorrow. Looks like the axis of the 0.25 and 0.50 contours have edged/expanded somewhat more to the northwest too compared to the 15Z run. But otherwise it's more or less very similar. yes..a little warmer and a little NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I would seriously cut out the models after the 00z runs. Nothing left to look at. The plume is right over us. man, that's like telling a weenie to get a life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 NAm is running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Radar sure looks more like something the euro would deliver than the gfs...where would all of that stuff go? Manchester/Westminster. They've been screwed this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 OH my NAM looks much wetter on simrad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 it's a tick hairier lil' warmer and some decent returns to our SW I think it will be a hair better (famous last words) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 The 850 line is running through DC at 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 700mb layer please go away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 NAM at 18 MUCH BETTER.. nice QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Wow, total NAM'ing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 NAM is a smedge wetter....just a smedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Sim rad shows it all. Huge blob headed NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 If we could get that 700mb warm layer to go away at hrs 12-15... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Look likes she's back. It is markedly better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Wholyy **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Guys, be careful with the soundings... DCA is sleet at 12z and sleet/snow mix at 15z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Guys, be careful with the soundings... DCA is sleet at 12z and sleet/snow mix at 15z! I'm soooo pissed.....Dupage soundings are all screwed up I know at 15 hrs. I'm all snow, but everything before that is useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Guys, be careful with the soundings... DCA is sleet at 12z and sleet/snow mix at 15z! Yoda, 700mb is half a degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 The Human Pendulum likes the NAM again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 NAM is a healthy 5-7" for the DC area by 24 hours, wrapping up by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Nam looks amazing. I think the Euro had this nailed the whole time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Guys, be careful with the soundings... DCA is sleet at 12z and sleet/snow mix at 15z! Yes, if we can get rid of that by 12Z like it was showing before, i.e., get the warm layer out of there. (ETA: maybe similar to what the Euro did, but the Euro cooled off the other layers faster?) Ha...I almost have to laugh at this run. I was jokingly saying in the banter thread something about watch how we get NAM'd at 00Z! PSUHoffman and a couple of others had mentioned that a large part of the reason the NAM (and GFS) were so much drier than the other models was due to its handling of the 1st vs. 2nd wave, and if the 2nd wave was allowed to develop more or tap more moisture, we'd be better off. I'm over-simplifying what they said probably, but I think that's the basic idea in just a sentence. Is that what the NAM is doing here now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Torrential sleet to heavy snow and widespread 6"+ sounds ok to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Yoda, 700mb is half a degree. and so is 725mb I guess it could be snow, but its rimed snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 19z is a complete crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 19z is a complete crush job. RAP or HRRRRRRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I'm soooo pissed.....Dupage soundings are all screwed up I know at 15 hrs. I'm all snow, but everything before that is useless Dupage soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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