Wxdood Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 LOL it does sound weenie but it's 3 models showing a similar situation. HRRR is at the end of the run showing that outcome and it takes on a look that seems to speed up. Noise id assume. The Lightning probs look to show that this thing will have dynamics in its favor. I'm game either way I just wish this was happening 6 hours earlier so I could ski a powder day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 That's some funny sh*t, sig worthy. LOL. Allegheny front keeping it on the west slopes of apps at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Looking at radar you can see the fetch just start from the GOM with a more northward track to it. That should be feeding the cold front machine more from the South and avoid the hurdle of having to transit the mts. Yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Yeah there's been a couple fill-ins east of the blue ridge in narrow bands today at different times to fizzle and rebuild. This has expanded north of the MD and is building south too. This should be out steady rain until it changes over Id imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 rain changing to snow is almost never a favorable pattern for significant accumulations in the Middle Atlantic...except in March! That has been researched. If it's going to happen this would be the time to do it. But...those rates are gonna have to be intense to pile those widespread 6-10 inch amounts. If we lose the rates then the warning level snows will go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Second wave will have plenty of moisture to tap. Tapping from two oceans and a constant fetch. We are not dealing with a coastal low situation. We have enough moisture to build a rain forest. The issue is the dense cold dry airmass that comes in and west to northwest flow is a down sloping flow...dry slotting or sharp gradients in precip. I think the nam and gfs are seeing this. PLUS...bands are very difficult to pinpoint even a few hours out let alone days! We are likely to see intense narrow bands that dump very heavy rates in spots while steady light to moderate snow falls everywhere. Where those bands setup...only God knows! Thanks for explaining. I figured the cold airmass would be the cause. But we need cold for snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 My personal forecast would be for a flip to Snow from 4:00am-9:00am NW/SE, DC should be changing over around 7-8am. Light to Moderate Snow through the rest of the day with Heavy Snow in the bands, this should last for 6-9hours. Total Snow in DC will be 2-5", Northern Maryland 4-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Thanks for explaining. I figured the cold airmass would be the cause. But we need cold for snow! That's why its a tricky situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 My personal forecast would be for a flip to Snow from 4:00am-9:00am NW/SE, DC should be changing over around 7-8am. Light to Moderate Snow through the rest of the day with Heavy Snow in the bands, this should last for 6-9hours. Total Snow in DC will be 2-5", Northern Maryland 4-7". Conservative. I respect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 rain changing to snow is almost never a favorable pattern for significant accumulations in the Middle Atlantic...except in March! That has been researched. If it's going to happen this would be the time to do it. But...those rates are gonna have to be intense to pile those widespread 6-10 inch amounts. If we lose the rates then the warning level snows will go with it. Yeah I don't see much in terms of rates... I hope it pans out better than what the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Conservative. I respect that. I like 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Yeah I don't see much in terms of rates... I hope it pans out better than what the models are showing. What models are you talking about.... the 18z NAM gives Washington Baltimore area 4 inches south to as much as 10 inches to the north. All other models gives at least 4 inches. Why so down? The RAP has the northern counties up to at least 3 inches by 11 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 What models are you talking about.... the 18z NAM gives Washington Baltimore area 4 inches south to as much as 10 inches to the north. All other models gives at least 4 inches. Why so down? I am still pissed off about the 6z gfs... Sent my entire day in to a tail spin. I think the ten inch totals will verify at around 6 or 7 and the 4 inch totals at like 2 or 3. There is no way we get max potential from qpf... So you gotta shave a little off. 3 or 4 inches really sucks compared to what the two globals were showing yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I am still pissed off about the 6z gfs... Sent my entire day in to a tail spin. I think the ten inch totals will verify at around 6 or 7 and the 4 inch totals at like 2 or 3. There is no way we get max potential from qpf... So you gotta shave a little off. 3 or 4 inches really sucks compared to what the two globals were showing yesterday. BWI averages 1.9 inches in March. So 4 inches would be a major win. Getting double digits in March is very hard to do. March like last year comes once in a life time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 What I have for DC. QPF is amount after the flip to snow. As much of this as possible is verified, but I had to educated guesstimate for some. 18z GFS - 0.38", 12-13z 18z NAM - 0.54" - 14z 18z4kNAM - 0.45" - 14z 18z RGEM - 0.45" - 13z 12z GGEM - 0.60" - 14z 12z EURO - 0.70" - 13z 12z UKMET - 0.60" - 14z 21z RAP - TBD - 14z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdcrob Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 What I have for DC. QPF is amount after the flip to snow. As much of this as possible is verified, but I had to educated guesstimate for some. 18z GFS - 0.38", 12-13z 18z NAM - 0.54" - 14z 18z4kNAM - 0.45" - 14z 18z RGEM - 0.45" - 13z 12z GGEM - 0.60" - 14z 12z EURO - 0.70" - 13z 12z UKMET - 0.60" - 14z 21z RAP - TBD - 14z Average: ~.55 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 What I have for DC. QPF is amount after the flip to snow. As much of this as possible is verified, but I had to educated guesstimate for some. 18z GFS - 0.38", 12-13z 18z NAM - 0.54" - 14z 18z4kNAM - 0.45" - 14z 18z RGEM - 0.45" - 13z 12z GGEM - 0.60" - 14z 12z EURO - 0.70" - 13z 12z UKMET - 0.60" - 14z 21z RAP - TBD - 14z Even 0.4" is a good event here. Only concern would be how much of those qpf numbers would be good accumulating snow. Would think it could take an hour after changeover to start piling on all surface but I could be wrong. I guess a period of sleet would help in that regard more than a quick change to from rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Average: ~.55 I think the GFS is too cold and that might be leading to it being drier and further south...The moisture plume will be further north than it is modeling.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 What I have for DC. QPF is amount after the flip to snow. As much of this as possible is verified, but I had to educated guesstimate for some. 18z GFS - 0.38", 12-13z 18z NAM - 0.54" - 14z 18z4kNAM - 0.45" - 14z 18z RGEM - 0.45" - 13z 12z GGEM - 0.60" - 14z 12z EURO - 0.70" - 13z 12z UKMET - 0.60" - 14z 21z RAP - TBD - 14z If I may ask, when do we flip to IP...earlier the better it would seem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Even 0.4" is a good event here. Only concern would be how much of those qpf numbers would be good accumulating snow. Would think it could take an hour after changeover to start piling on all surface but I could be wrong. I guess a period of sleet would help in that regard more than a quick change to from rain to snow. I think we'll accumulate right away....It may take a while for the roads to capitulate but that doesnt really matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Already ripping at keysers ridge on 68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I think the GFS is too cold and that might be leading to it being drier and further south...The moisture plume will be further north than it is modeling.. That's been my thought all along. I may end up dead wrong though. Wouldn't be the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 If I may ask, when do we flip to IP...earlier the better it would seem hard to say...plus there is going to be a lull....I think once precip starts to pick up again around 7-8am DC will be sleet for an hour or so?, and then mix/flip....thats a guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 That's been my thought all along. I may end up dead wrong though. Wouldn't be the first time. I am not as comfortable with the new GFS yet, but fading the GFS on winter storms coming from the south/southwest when it is an outlier is usually a good idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I am not as comfortable with the new GFS yet, but fading the GFS on winter storms coming from the south/southwest when it is an outlier is usually a good idea Radar sure looks more like something the euro would deliver than the gfs...where would all of that stuff go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 SREF remains consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 SREF remains consistent Consistently what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Consistently what? Never mind. It's a relief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 RAP is consistently getting colder and colder per run. no surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.