ravensrule Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 DT's map.. That is a lot of Euro humping: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That is a lot of Euro humping: That's more than a hump. More like rounding second and heading in. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 One idea is 100% certain: mother nature will surprise us. Enjoy the ride. Pacific and Gulf tap plus arctic air and a strong baroclinic zone = chaos in the atmosphere. In the spring and summer this equals tornados! In March in the Middle Atlantic...will mean business for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That is a lot of Euro humping: 7-10 would have seemed more reasonable, maybe just 6-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Pacific and Gulf tap plus arctic air and a strong baroclinic zone = chaos in the atmosphere. In the spring and summer this equals tornados! In March in the Middle Atlantic...will mean business for some. I'm interested to know your forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm interested to know your forecast His and Roger Smith's wintry mix say 15-22". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Pacific and Gulf tap plus arctic air and a strong baroclinic zone = chaos in the atmosphere. In the spring and summer this equals tornados! In March in the Middle Atlantic...will mean business for some. Any trouble for the moisture to cross the apps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That is a lot of Euro humping: he must be visiting dc today and sampling the local greenery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 he must be visiting dc today and sampling the local greenery LMAO!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That is a lot of Euro humping: Whooohoooo I'm changing over 13 hours ago! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well if it does bust it's the first batch will have to be rain because of the delayed cold-front and the second batch will have to have it's lift ruined by by the convection to our south. I still think 3-5 area wide even if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 7-10 would have seemed more reasonable, maybe just 6-9. Let's go with 2-4 so we don't go into depression if it doesn't materialize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Any trouble for the moisture to cross the apps? No it's coming from the south as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Whooohoooo I'm changing over 13 hours ago! LOL, yeah, maybe a 'oopsie' there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Now, here's what I want to know: What is it that the NAM and GFS are seeing (or think they're seeing) that could cut into our snow totals? Is it the incoming high pressure to the north? Can't see it being dry air with all the rain...Any informed opinions about this on here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Spotsylvania County Schools just Closed already for tomorrow, lol Expecting 3-5" around EZF.....Sleet Bomb incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Now, here's what I want to know: What is it that the NAM and GFS are seeing (or think they're seeing) that could cut into our snow totals? Is it the incoming high pressure to the north? Can't see it being dry air with all the rain...Any informed opinions about this on here? Its been posted a couple of times - it appears that the NAM and GFS are amping up the first wave more than the other models, which draws moisture from the second wave (someone can correct my terminology on this). The second wave is our opportunity for large amounts of snow, therefore when the models amp up the first rather than the second, we end up with less snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Might as well bust out the NAVGEM. About 0.6" after 12z in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Have I missed Hrrrrrrr posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Now, here's what I want to know: What is it that the NAM and GFS are seeing (or think they're seeing) that could cut into our snow totals? Is it the incoming high pressure to the north? Can't see it being dry air with all the rain...Any informed opinions about this on here? My guess is that the GFS and NAM have delusions of grandeur and think that they are superior to other models. Reality may set in with the 0z run tonight as they cave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Have I missed Hrrrrrrr posts Snow at the end of its run... so not really in range yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Snow at the end of its run... so not really in range yet... yea, barely in rap range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Have I missed Hrrrrrrr posts How about this one - lightening threat at 6am - COME ON THUNDERSNOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It looks like the first wave is essentially wringing out the moisture that would have come from the second wave. What a bummer. That HRRR shows the NAM and GFS idea it looks like...... Sad how that much moisture that's over KY just can't make it over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 It looks like the first wave is essentially wringing out the moisture that would have come from the second wave. What a bummer. That HRRR shows the NAM and GFS idea it looks like...... Sad how that much moisture that's over KY just can't make it over here.[/quoteHAHAHAHAHAHA!! That's quality weenie right there. Pure, uncut, Weenie. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Second wave will have plenty of moisture to tap. Tapping from two oceans and a constant fetch. We are not dealing with a coastal low situation. We have enough moisture to build a rain forest. The issue is the dense cold dry airmass that comes in and west to northwest flow is a down sloping flow...dry slotting or sharp gradients in precip. I think the nam and gfs are seeing this. PLUS...bands are very difficult to pinpoint even a few hours out let alone days! We are likely to see intense narrow bands that dump very heavy rates in spots while steady light to moderate snow falls everywhere. Where those bands setup...only God knows! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 We have enough moisture to build a rain forest. That's some funny sh*t, sig worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 It looks like the first wave is essentially wringing out the moisture that would have come from the second wave. What a bummer. That HRRR shows the NAM and GFS idea it looks like...... Sad how that much moisture that's over KY just can't make it over here. Exactly... But who knows we might pull off a miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 The American models are inferior. I wouldnt worry too much yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I would seriously cut out the models after the 00z runs. Nothing left to look at. The plume is right over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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