BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Maybe a red tagged can help..what is causing the lack of precip at 18hr on the GFS? It seems insistant on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 what drying trend? The euro came in wet? You have two very skilled globals advertising a wet solution. If they hold serve tonight, it will be interesting. The Oracle has spoken: THERE IS STILL THE LIKELIHOOD THAT 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE COMMON FROM WASHINGTON DC TO NEW YORK CITY ALTHOUGH THERE ARE ISSUES ON THE NORTH END OF LOWER TOTALS AND ON THE SOUTHERN END WITH CHANGEOVER TIMES. WHILE THE 12Z NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATED A POSSIBLE SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE QPF AREA...LATER FORECASTS BY THE 18Z NAM/12Z UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF ALL HAD FARTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS SUGGESTING THAT THE FEWER CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE BETTER. KOCIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think considering all those factors, 4-8" sounds reasonable for us. Agreed. See the Kocin comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 We shall see. The EURO has been a mixed bag this season. With the NAM/High Rez NAM/GFS all doing the drying trend, I find it dicey to ignore all of that trend. Agreed. I would not discount the GFS at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Based on the drying trend, 3" to 6" may be more realistic. It seems that it takes until between 12 Z and 15 Z to totally chill the column and then the good precip only hangs around until about 21Z. You're a human pendulum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Maybe a red tagged can help..what is causing the lack of precip at 18hr on the GFS? It seems insistant on that I'm not a red tagger, but I believe the first wave is stealing some moisture from the 2nd wave, hence the lack of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On the GFS, how much of that first hit from 1am-7am is snow/sleet/rain? It looks really close for the area. Might be the key to amounts. The thing is, I think there's gonna be some N-S uniformity with the duration of frozen pcpn. If DCA switches over prior to 12Z...yay...but that probably means were done earlier as well (boo). Hard to picture more that 6-8 hours of good snow rates with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 A lot more snow on the 18z GFS up north. Lends credence to psuhoffman's theory that the first wave is being amped up more and stealing the show from the second. GFS and NAM are alone now in how they have the second wave falling apart, and they are also both by far the most ambitious with the first tonight. Obviously a correlation there. I think with the RGEM joining the GGEM/UKMET/Euro/SREF camp that the GFS/NAM are having some kind of issue resolving how the two waves and the baroclinic zone will interact. At least I hope they are because the 2 wave idea on the GFS/NAM is a very dangerous one for our area if we get stuck between the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 You're a human pendulum. I'm trying not to get disappointed. The odds of 6" to 10" are starting to look slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 You're a human pendulum. Agreed. I would not discount the GFS at all! Nobody is really discounting anything. This is a tough setup to predict. More cold air could mean better ratios at the end so who knows. Almost time to nowcast and forget the models. The actual results of this are likely to surprise all of us both good and bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm trying not to get disappointed. The odds of 6" to 10" are starting to look slim. Only if you believe the Gfs/Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I hate this forum..we have become very weenie like new England board We don't have 95" though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 best guess, I am going with the Euro/UK/GGEM/SREF blend. NAM and GFS are a mess right now, hopefully on crack and not about to score the coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Perhaps we should use this model instead. That's a lot of moisture that the GFS is saying won't make it over the mountains: http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RAP say at 8 AM I will have 2-3 inches on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The pros seem to be leaning on the foreign models. Also, the gfs is wetter here for the same 3z to 3z period that it was at 12z. Not a lot, but more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It really is amazing how often it ends up a battle between the American and European models. Once again one of the camps will bust significantly. Regardless. I will take a 4+ inch snow on March 5th with no complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Good job of keeping everyone grounded Ji.....right after you posted that the storm was dying a slow death. I don't know about anyone else, but I feel pretty good about having the Euro in our camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 When will we know tonight if the front wave is stronger than the second wave? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Good job of keeping everyone grounded Ji.....right after you posted that the storm was dying a slow death. I don't know about anyone else, but I feel pretty good about having the Euro in our camp. if everything was reversed wrt the models, I could appreciate the angst, but it's not the other way around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I am telling you its like .5 inch QPF over a 12 hour period... that just not gonna do the trick in March. FFS with the March argument!! I got 3" snow last year on March 25 during the day on much less than 0.5" liquid equivalent. It even stuck to the pavement more than I expected, and there was a lull at one point. That's fully three weeks beyond when this current event is to occur. Oh, and it was also warmer than this event will be while the snow is falling. Sorry for the rant, but the "won't do it during the day in March" stuff has gotten a tad annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 When will we know tonight if the front wave is stronger than the second wave? Sent from my iPhone when it dosent snow tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 when it dosent snow tomorrow he said when will we know "tonight" Kreskin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM looks good, NAM was roughly in line with other guidance. The 4k NAM came in dry. "With the exception of the 00z run of the Euro last night, the GGEM, Euro, and GFS underpredicted the snow around here, with the GGEM performing the best. The 12z run of the GGEM yesterday is looking pretty good. I don't have Ukie snow maps so I'm not sure how it did -- it was the wettest of the top four global models, which means it probably did pretty well. High-res RGEM was way too wet and continuously adjusted totals down until it got something reasonable. But it doesn't look as crazy today as it did yesterday." this was your comment on the 21st Feb. it was that 00z run of the Euro that I was convinced it would be a great event. May give us clues to which model has a better chance of verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 basically models have locked into a significant snowfall. the question is how significant. it's snowing in louisville, cincinnati, and pittsburgh right now. already getting a northerly component to the wind here, so we've reached our max i guess. slow descent from here. probably no reason to pull an all nighter, which is good. wake up and it starts to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I like Bernie's discussion here. Good points. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/oklahoma-city-to-boston-snow-ice-storm/43277612 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I like Bernie's discussion here. Good points. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/oklahoma-city-to-boston-snow-ice-storm/43277612 That's by Sosnowski? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That's by Sosnowski? The video?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The video?... I see now, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Nobody is really discounting anything. This is a tough setup to predict. More cold air could mean better ratios at the end so who knows. Almost time to nowcast and forget the models. The actual results of this are likely to surprise all of us both good and bad. One idea is 100% certain: mother nature will surprise us. Enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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