Expat Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS is running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS is running Goodie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I am telling you its like .5 inch QPF over a 12 hour period... that just not gonna do the trick in March. If that's what you think, then why are you here? At least try to be scientifically rational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I am telling you its like .5 inch QPF over a 12 hour period... that just not gonna do the trick in March. for DC on the "dry" NAM, 0.43" falls in a 6 hour period with temps in the mid 20s. Will THAT do it in early March? Let us know what will "do the trick" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 18Z RGEM Meteogram, about 14mm of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I am telling you its like .5 inch QPF over a 12 hour period... that just not gonna do the trick in March. There's some pretty good banding in there, at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 18z RGEM is out - waiting on Meteograms for totals but it looks like ~12-13 mm falls after 12z tomorrow adding up the individual panels. ETA: Nvm - posted above! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 not everyone lives in DC. It's all about your backyard when it comes to snow and for Baltimore county it's an ugly run.Lol like the NAM is going to have a dry spot in the midst of snowier spots modeled correctly. welcome to the never learn zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 18z RGEM is out - waiting on Meteograms for totals but it looks like ~13-14 mm falls after 12z tomorrow adding up the individual panels. ETA: Nvm - posted above! about 0.55"...more interesting is how cold it is...colder earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I just want the gfs to come on no lower than 5" then all models will be 5" and up...solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Lol like the NAM is going to have a dry spot in the midst of snowier spots modeled correctly. welcome to the never learn zone. Not saying I believe it... probably just noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 about 0.55"...more interesting is how cold it is...colder earlier It looks like it cuts back on total qpf from 12z, but it bumps up the qpf that falls as snow. It looks a little like the 00z run of the GGEM last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DUSTINMFOX Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 18ZGFS has the 850 line through Leesburg at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 iwm 18Z gfs seems to have a D.C. snow hole band right up the gut around 10:00 A.M. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015030418&time=3&var=APCPI&hour=021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS somewhat dry again. 3-5" per IWM maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 A lot more snow on the 18z GFS up north. Lends credence to psuhoffman's theory that the first wave is being amped up more and stealing the show from the second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The one danger in all of this is that the precip band width is narrow. If the cold air really blasted in then we don't have a lot of room for this to be pressed south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not saying I believe it... probably just noise It was not a great run for you and me, but the main issue is the overall dryness of the run. On average, less snow for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just took a look at the 18z NAM/RGEM..what is everyone whining about? They both look fine, 0.4/0.6" of frozen QPF. No one is getting a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just took a look at the 18z NAM/RGEM..what is everyone whining about? They both look fine. RGEM looks good, NAM was roughly in line with other guidance. The 4k NAM came in dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Based on the drying trend, 3" to 6" may be more realistic. It seems that it takes until between 12 Z and 15 Z to totally chill the column and then the good precip only hangs around until about 21Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Based on the drying trend, 3" to 6" may be more realistic. It seems that it takes until between 12 Z and 15 Z to totally chill the column and then the good precip only hangs around until about 21Z. Yes, what about Euro/GGEM/UKMET? With those, I'd say 5-8"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just took a look at the 18z NAM/RGEM..what is everyone whining about? They both look fine. No one is getting a foot of snow. What the trends are telling me is that those of us in the D.C. metro would likely see our 4-8" range tighten to 4-6". At this point, I would take .50-.55" liquid and 6" of snow in a heartbeat. These rain changing to snow setups and hoping the second wave doesn't dive too far south with the arctic front always make me a little wary. I no longer expect 8+, but I gotta admit, with this much juice, anything lower than 4" would be a disappointment, yet par for the course for several systems this winter around here (lots of 2-4" events). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Based on the drying trend, 3" to 6" may be more realistic. It seems that it takes until between 12 Z and 15 Z to totally chill the column and then the good precip only hangs around until about 21Z. what drying trend? The euro came in wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yes, what about Euro/GGEM/UKMET? With those, I'd say 5-8"... Climatology supports the 700 mb beginning to dry out around 21Z. Perhaps 2 times out of 20, the back end of the system overperforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 what drying trend? The euro came in wet? We shall see. The EURO has been a mixed bag this season. With the NAM/High Rez NAM/GFS all doing the drying trend, I find it dicey to ignore all of that trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On the GFS, how much of that first hit from 1am-7am is snow/sleet/rain? It looks really close for the area. Might be the key to amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 We shall see. The EURO has been a mixed bag this season. With the NAM/High Rez NAM/GFS all doing the drying trend, I find it dicey to ignore all of that trend. You have two very skilled globals advertising a wet solution. If they hold serve tonight, it will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think we should just totally discount the euro/ukmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Maybe a red tagged can help..what is causing the lack of precip at 18hr on the GFS? It seems insistant on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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