high risk Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 big changes in the 6-hr period between 18 and 00z tomorrow evening in the 18z NAM. the new run really dropped the liquid amounts during that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 big changes in the 6-hr period between 18 and 00z tomorrow evening in the 18z NAM. the new run really dropped the liquid amounts during that period. More like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 More like the GFS? Looks like it. Still not a bad system for this winter's patterns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Every one of us should be happy with that. eta: except maybe Cumberland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 4km NAM looks good through 21, which is shere I am stuck at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 4k NAM gives DC area about 5-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It looks like NAM supports the idea of a widespread 4-8". It's basically in line with other guidance around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 this storm is dying a really slow death I wouldn't say that yet, ggem, ec, uk, sref still look really really good. GFS and NAM have decided to veer off in a different direction at game time. We don't have any evidence to support that they are correct yet. NAM actually halted the south trend with the second wave this run, it just was also way dryer so it looks worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 4-8" areawide, bank on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 would have thought the Euro would make everyone quite giddy...maybe GFS will help ease fears The GFS is what started our fears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 4k NAM continues to trend drier. Through 27 hours, it has most of the area around the cities below 1" total qpf (including sleet and rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Anyone have the 4km NAM map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Anyone have the 4km NAM map? It's ugly through 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Anyone have the 4km NAM map? It has been stuck at H27 for a while but here it is: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 4k NAM continues to trend drier. Through 27 hours, it has most of the area around the cities below 1" total qpf (including sleet and rain). It may be drier, but the 12Z run was huge jump up also. These runs are not all that bad imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The Nam could be right, but I just do not see that massive slug of moisture toour southwest drying up like that whatsoever. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/RadarImg/latest_Small.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's ugly through 27. unless you're in D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 unless you're in D.C. not everyone lives in DC. It's all about your backyard when it comes to snow and for Baltimore county it's an ugly run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's ugly through 27. LOL, that's ugly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Anyone had an idea why two models are trending drier? Is it the high pressure? Weaker low? Faster low? Is there any indication on the surface maps that would indicate such a change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 LOL, that's ugly? Do you want more than 3-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Anyone had an idea why two models are trending drier? Is it the high pressure? Weaker low? Faster low? Is there any indication on the surface maps that would indicate such a change? less moisture eta: 500 mb vort looks very similar to 12Z with just a slightly stronger positive tilt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It may be drier, but the 12Z run was huge jump up also. These runs are not all that bad imo. 12z might have been a jump up in some spots, but overall it was drier than 06z. Which was drier than 00z, which was drier than 18z yesterday. If you go to the tropicaltidbits site, you can see the trend pretty clearly. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015030418&fh=27&xpos=0&ypos=261 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Everybody stop panic, much moisture feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 namhr.jpg Everybody stop panic, much moisture feed. We need to focus attention in sw TX I believe. eta: I guess the whole plume is linked, impressive swath! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Do you want more than 3-4"? Worried about your call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 LOL, that's ugly? I was comparing to previous runs and most other guidance. Obviously it's fine compared to a typical March day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I am telling you its like .5 inch QPF over a 12 hour period... that just not gonna do the trick in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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