Ian Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I agree that its best uvv and fronto that are causing qpf shifts. Those factors line up so it shouldn't be a surprise that what's being shown is evolving in that manner. The overall setup hasn't really changed at all lately. This is not like situations where it's rapidly evolving up to game time IMO. Of course figuring out exactly where the best banding will set up is tricky though I wouldn't bet against just NW of the cities at this point heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Nah. Temps aloft are never cold enough for good dendrite formation. Probably standard 9-11:1. Perhaps the 12 hour average will be close to 10-1, but we've got quite the subtropical connection going this time around (actually meeting the definition of an atmospheric river per the source of origin and PW anomalies). Enough for 12-1 at times, which is good for the daytime in early March. The soundings last night (when I was working) actually showed that -- much deeper moisture above 500 mb this go around compared to events up to this point. The "seeder-feeder" conceptual model should be quite applicable here. Lots of available ice nuclei from way up in the trop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 don'tt hey also have a map that shows what falls as snow, or is that just for the rgem? They have that map for most of the models they show, but not the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I agree that its best uvv and fronto that are causing qpf shifts. Those factors line up so it shouldn't be a surprise that what's being shown is evolving in that manner. That upper level jet (over 170 kts at 250 mb) is no joke. Someone's going to cash in along that frontogenetic band in the RRQ of the robust northern jet coinciding with the shortwave energy from the southwest phasing in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro 12z-00z is 0.75-0.8" pretty much all DC and suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That upper level jet (over 170 kts at 250 mb) is no joke. Someone's going to cash in along that frontogenetic band in the RRQ of the robust northern jet coinciding with the shortwave energy from the southwest phasing in.I've brought that up on a few occasions in the PA sub forum. That UL jet is not something you see everyday in this setup. Someone will reap the benefits of that for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Can someone post an after 12z total precip map for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The GFS contrast to the Euro is stunning. Cobb for 12Z GFS: KIAD 3.8 DCA 7.3 BWI 4.7 MRB 2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Can someone post an after 12z total precip map for the Euro? I'm not sure if eurowx allows these to be posted, but here goes. y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not sure it's really a SE trend just a shift in best frontal lift. Yeah, there hasn't been any real shift in the primary components from what I can see, just a tightening of the secondary precip gradient as the boundary slides south ahead of the slightly delayed 2nd impulse. I can already foresee the panic early Thursday morning when we're in a lull between waves and those N/W have racked up 3-4" while DC is just changing over. Then the 2nd impulse rolls through and it's the westerners that are shafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 FINAL CALL for DC: 2am - 4am: Steady light rain mixes with and changes to sleet, Temps falling into the mid 30s.4am - 6am: Light intermittent sleet with temps in the low to mid 30s.6am - 8am: Light sleet transitions over to light snow. Temps in the low 30s.8am - 10am: Snow becomes steadier, with temps falling below freezing.10am - 4pm: Moderate to Heavy snow with temps in the mid to upper 20s.4pm - 6pm: Snow becomes lighter and tapers off. Total storm accumulation: 5-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm not sure if eurowx allows these to be posted, but here goes. y Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 While LWX doesn't seem to have updated their expected snow/ice accumulations map yet, I just noticed that they have updated their minimums map, happily taking <1" well off the table. They also updated their high end map. Minimums (I think this is a 10th percentile) map: ETA: for metro DC. Sorry Fredricksburg... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 FINAL CALL for DC: 2am - 4am: Steady light rain mixes with and changes to sleet, Temps falling into the mid 30s. 4am - 6am: Light intermittent sleet with temps in the low to mid 30s. 6am - 8am: Light sleet transitions over to light snow. Temps in the low 30s. 8am - 10am: Snow becomes steadier, with temps falling below freezing. 10am - 4pm: Moderate to Heavy snow with temps in the mid to upper 20s. 4pm - 6pm: Snow becomes lighter and tapers off. Total storm accumulation: 5-8" nice forecast... gonna go clear off the measure spots shortly (although the rain is helping with that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 While LWX doesn't seem to have updated their expected snow/ice accumulations map yet, I just noticed that they have updated their minimums map, happily taking <1" well off the table. They also updated their high end map. Minimums (I think this is a 10th percentile) map: ETA: for metro DC. Sorry Fredricksburg... The min, max, and expected snowfall maps were all updated at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 nice forecast... gonna go clear off the measure spots shortly (although the rain is helping with that). Thx...I was going to go 6-8 and I wimped out and added the 5 at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Was this last 12z euro run we care about For this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Thx...I was going to go 6-8 and I wimped out and added the 5 at the last minute. DCA will probably measure 5 while someone in Crystal City will measure 8. So good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like a Parr's ridge jackpot based on the snow map. From das to psuhoffman There are two very distinct camps right now, amazing considering its 18 hours away. The euro/ggem/ukmet/sref have a more amped and stronger second wave tomorrow. The GFS/NAM have a weaker suppressed second wave. The RGEM is kind of riding the middle fence right now. For DC and VA its not really that much of a difference but for the northern MD area it makes a huge difference and creates a very difficult forecast as the NAM/GFS imply basically a 2-4" snow up this way while the others imply a 6-10" snowfall. Despite my pessimism I would lean towards the Euro/GGEM/UKMET idea right now just based on the gut feeling that the other models may be putting too much emphasis on the front runner wave tonight and dampening the second a bit too much. I've seen it before. My hunches have been wrong a lot lately in this pattern though so take that for what its worth, not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Here's the WPC update on model preference: ...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/NORTHEAST......COLD FRONT SETTLING THROUGH THE EAST......SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND IMPACTING THEMID-ATLANTIC...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWFCONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A COLD FRONT ADVANCINGSOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DOWN THROUGH THEMID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHDOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE 12Z UKMET IS SLOWER THANTHE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION. THE 12ZNAM AND 12Z GFS ARE GENERALLY A BIT FASTER TO DROP THE FRONT DOWNTO THE SOUTH...AND BECOME MOST SUPPRESSED WITH THE FRONT. THE 12ZGEM AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. MEANWHILE...ASHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THEMIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD CROSS THE OH VALLEY BY LATETHURS AND THEN THE NORTHEAST THURS NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS THEWEAKEST SOLUTION WITH THIS ENERGY...WITH THE REMAINING MODELS ALLSLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED. THE LATEST GEFS MEAN AND ECENS MEAN ARESTRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF THEIR RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.SO...BASED ON THIS WILL PREFER TO BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Here's the WPC update on model preference: ...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/NORTHEAST... ...COLD FRONT SETTLING THROUGH THE EAST... ...SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE ETA - Euro-GFS seems like an odd blend of extremes to me; welcome further thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 SREF look much wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 ETA - Euro-GFS seems like an odd blend of extremes to me; welcome further thoughts. When don't they? In all seriousness, that choice does seem to verify most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Was this last 12z euro run we care about For this winter? march 25 event still to go thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Lol remember ny not to long ago went with the euro's precipitation field to great disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 SREF look much wetter When do they not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Here's the WPC update on model preference: ...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/NORTHEAST... ...COLD FRONT SETTLING THROUGH THE EAST... ...SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE 12Z UKMET IS SLOWER THAN THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION. THE 12Z NAM AND 12Z GFS ARE GENERALLY A BIT FASTER TO DROP THE FRONT DOWN TO THE SOUTH...AND BECOME MOST SUPPRESSED WITH THE FRONT. THE 12Z GEM AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN BETWEEN THE TWO CAMPS. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD CROSS THE OH VALLEY BY LATE THURS AND THEN THE NORTHEAST THURS NIGHT. THE 12Z NAM IS THE WEAKEST SOLUTION WITH THIS ENERGY...WITH THE REMAINING MODELS ALL SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED. THE LATEST GEFS MEAN AND ECENS MEAN ARE STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF THEIR RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS. SO...BASED ON THIS WILL PREFER TO BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF. I think they do more than just QPF hug there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Lol remember ny not to long ago went with the euro's precipitation field to great disappointment. So what does this mean? It's a different event. We will soon see anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 they're off...I have 2 different subscription maps which corroborate each other and the 2nd one is weatherbell level... The high resolution maps i just saw are kind of in between those 2... weird This is for after 12z Westminster .65 MRB .55 JYO .7 IAD .8 DCA .8 BWI .75 We are splitting hairs here though it was a GREAT run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 15z SREF mean at DCA is 8.6" 9 members are higher than the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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