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March 5 Snow Thread-Model Discussion ONLY


stormtracker

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These are all beginning at 12Z and per eurowx. Don't shot the messenger if the eurowx numbers are off. 

 

Westminster: .87

IAD: .95

DCA: .77

BWI: .92

Aberdeen: .91

 

Admit that the DCA number looks funny.

 

 

looking at my better maps for after 12z (some may get snow before then)

 

0.5" contour - MRB to PHL

0.75" contour- inside DC beltway

 

they're off...I have 2 different subscription maps which corroborate each other and the 2nd one is weatherbell level...

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Looks like a Parr's ridge jackpot based on the snow map. From das to psuhoffman

That's how you know it's accurate ;)

In all seriousness, that was a really nice run. I think the cutoff to the north will be a little sharper than depicted, but the writing is on the wall. My personal feeling on the jackpot area will be between Westminster/Baltimore down to BWI over to Damascus. Someone in that spot will likely cash in due to that consistently being in the area of best lift and maximizing on QPF. Will be a fun storm to watch unfold.

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Wow. The Euro is a clobbering. No doubt about it. I feel much better that the SE trend is over.

Not sure it's really a SE trend just a shift in best frontal lift.
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and despite the "rates debacle" snow storm we had earlier this month, I do believe this one will have 12:1-15:1 rates for at least some portion of the snow

Nah.  Temps aloft are never cold enough for good dendrite formation.  Probably standard 9-11:1.  

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