midatlanticweather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Sure, what levels/metrics/lead times/regions are you talking about? Blanket statements about model A being superior to model B without real evidence (anectodal nonsense doesn't count) are annoying. FYI, ECMWF > UKMO > GFS > The rest. Weenie FYI - MODEL WITH MOST SNOW > the rest ETA: SORRY - Should be banter - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Any input on the storm instead of meaningless model verification discussion with PG that is just unnecessary. We know the deal with scores and verification. He's seen it too. How about your forecast for this event? I don't think discussion of model verification is meaningless at all, it helps provide context. See my comments regarding the UKMO model and high QPF bias for high threshold amounts. I think that 4-8" for the DC metro area is probably a solid forecast (with 4-6 more likely than 6-8). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Final Call DCA: 5-7" (5.3") IAD: 6-8" (6.9") JYO: 6-8" (6.2") BWI: 6-8" (7.1") OKV: 5-7" (6.0") MRB: 4-6" (5.2") DMW: 6-8" (7.0") RIC: 2-4" (2.9") No one ever does NHK and SBY in these forecasts lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I don't think discussion of model verification is meaningless at all, it helps provide context. See my comments regarding the UKMO model and high QPF bias for high threshold amounts. I think that 4-8" for the DC metro area is probably a solid forecast (with 4-6 more likely than 6-8). I like that argument! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I don't think discussion of model verification is meaningless at all, it helps provide context. See my comments regarding the UKMO model and high QPF bias for high threshold amounts. I think that 4-8" for the DC metro area is probably a solid forecast (with 4-6 more likely than 6-8). I know you know all of these things more than the layman's here. Good call and I replied to your threshold post I saw your graphs over in banter. Good point for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 No one ever does NHK and SBY in these forecasts lolNHK: 3-5" (4.4")SBY: 4-6" (5.0") They could cash with heavy rates and qpf towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This is basically a sunrise to sunset storm from snow flip to shut off. There is your timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Final Call DCA: 5-7" (5.3") IAD: 6-8" (6.9") JYO: 6-8" (6.2") BWI: 6-8" (7.1") OKV: 5-7" (6.0") MRB: 4-6" (5.2") DMW: 6-8" (7.0") RIC: 2-4" (2.9") Good call, espacially what's in the perentheses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This is basically a sunrise to sunset storm from snow flip to shut off. There is your timing. Unusual for March, though to be fair it is still early March ("Feb 33rd"!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I don't think discussion of model verification is meaningless at all, it helps provide context. See my comments regarding the UKMO model and high QPF bias for high threshold amounts. I think that 4-8" for the DC metro area is probably a solid forecast (with 4-6 more likely than 6-8). agreed. it's funny to me how people think no side topic should exist unless it's something important to them. you have all these smart problem-solvers on here, but few people seem capable of scrolling past a post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Below is the UKMET qpf that falls after 12z on Thursday. The changeover won't be at 12z for everyone, but this should provide a rough estimate. It looks a little better around Baltimore than the 00z run did. That map sucks for us out here. I gotta figure out how mush falls out here before 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 are we even concerned with the 0z suite tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That map sucks for us out here. I gotta figure out how mush falls out here before 12Z. Dude, how so? It has you in the 10-15mm AFTER 12z. That's 0.4 to 0.6 inches. How much were you expecting after 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 are we even concerned with the 0z suite tonight? yes....It is a fresh and presumably higher skilled set of data.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The way I see this is for most systems this winter modeled qpf was overdone. I think that's true most winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Dude, how so? It has you in the 10-15mm AFTER 12z. That's 0.4 to 0.6 inches. How much were you expecting after 12Z? Yeah. Thats why I said I need to figure out on the UKMET how much we get before 12Z. I would like to see 6-8 at least. But I am just being greedy I suppose. It is March 4th afterall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yep, it's been quite good for the past few months....how about other metrics/levels (near surface temps, winds, QPF, etc.)? ECWMF > UKMO overall, even at 24 hours, despite the plot shown there for one metric/region/lead time. WPC used to have a QPF verification of the Euro versus the GFS and NAM but I looked today and couldn't find it. The last time I looked for the northeast, it had the best ETS but I haven't looked for quite awhile so I have no clue as to how it stacks up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yeah. Thats why I said I need to figure out on the UKMET how much we get before 12Z. I would like to see 6-8 at least. But I am just being greedy I suppose. It is March 4th afterall From 12z on, 0.6 would probably be 6-8". It will be cold by then. When I saw that map, I thought it looked great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 WPC used to have a QPF verification of the Euro versus the GFS and NAM but I looked today and couldn't find it. The last time I looked for the northeast, it had the best ETS but I haven't looked for quite awhile so I have no clue as to how it stacks up. New resolutions -> new competition -> new verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnoelovertoo Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM seems to go a little dry after the cold air gets here, but I guess I'll wait for other vendor maps before being certain Mitch, could you please specify the Bato, area a little more. Thanks it seems to be all DC and NoVA folks of late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro is cold 12Z 850 map http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h24&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 700mb RH looks like yesterday's 12z run http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h24&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro is cold 12Z 850 map http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h24&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Too cold could be a problem... I would think it would push the QPF to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro shifted the precip south a tad, but it is basically a crushing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 I need Matt in here..geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Hour 30 is a moneyshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro shifted the precip south a tad, but it is basically a crushing actually not really at a quick glance....it is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro shifted the precip south a tad, but it is basically a crushing I need Matt in here..geez Ahh. Well, I feel a ton better. Still like 4 to 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I need Matt in here..geez Dude..it wrecks us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro is a huge hit for terms we've used this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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