AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Cool, where are the stats to back up that claim? It's been mentioned by Ryan Maue among others, I don't have verification stats. Do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 850 hits 0 right at 12Z, so I doubt that is all snow....see my guess above It's snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The last two columns are snow... 14mm and 8mm... and you get 20-25mm hey, that's great if correct, but is there a link to something at meteocentre that confirms that I thought they had that product but didn't see it posted thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 By my count, Euro, NAM, GGEM, and Ukie are all .7+ qpf of snow for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's snow lol simultaneous post with mine hey, that IS great screw the GFS, even though it was the first model to see it 5+ days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's been mentioned by Ryan Maue among others, I don't have verification stats. Do you? Sure, what levels/metrics/lead times/regions are you talking about? Blanket statements about model A being superior to model B without real evidence (anectodal nonsense doesn't count) are annoying. FYI, ECMWF > UKMO > GFS > The rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Sure, what levels/metrics/lead times/regions are you talking about? Blanket statements about model A being superior to model B without real evidence (anectodal nonsense doesn't count) are annoying. FYI, ECMWF > UKMO > GFS > The rest. Well, thanks, I guess? I found this: http://weather.gc.ca/verification/monthly_ts_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 How many more days until the storm hits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 lol simultaneous post with mine hey, that IS great screw the GFS, even though it was the first model to see it 5+ days out This storm? This was the storm that the Euro dropped a 16-20 inch fantasy map on last Thursday. Euro was first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Final Call DCA: 5-7" (5.3") IAD: 6-8" (6.9") JYO: 6-8" (6.2") BWI: 6-8" (7.1") OKV: 5-7" (6.0") MRB: 4-6" (5.2") DMW: 6-8" (7.0") RIC: 2-4" (2.9") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Below is the UKMET qpf that falls after 12z on Thursday. The changeover won't be at 12z for everyone, but this should provide a rough estimate. It looks a little better around Baltimore than the 00z run did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Sure, what levels/metrics/lead times/regions are you talking about? Blanket statements about model A being superior to model B without real evidence (anectodal nonsense doesn't count) are annoying. FYI, ECMWF > UKMO > GFS > The rest. You gotta realize who you're dealing with here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm so confused on when we are changing to snow. I've seen a little after midnight, and then I see people posting saying it doesn't until 12Z?? That's almost a 12 hour difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well, thanks, I guess? I found this: http://weather.gc.ca/verification/monthly_ts_e.html Did you read dtk's post at all? See below. An aggregated, multi-domainal verification analysis over the entire US doesn't answer a d**n thing. Sure, what levels/metrics/lead times/regions are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well, thanks, I guess? I found this: http://weather.gc.ca/verification/monthly_ts_e.html Yep, it's been quite good for the past few months....how about other metrics/levels (near surface temps, winds, QPF, etc.)? ECWMF > UKMO overall, even at 24 hours, despite the plot shown there for one metric/region/lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yep, it's been quite good for the past few months....how about other metrics/levels (near surface temps, winds, QPF, etc.)? ECWMF > UKMO overall, even at 24 hours, despite the plot shown there for one metric/region/lead time. Someone mentioned on Twitter recently that the UKMET is #2, so I'll take your word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm so confused on when we are changing to snow. I've seen a little after midnight, and then I see people posting saying it doesn't until 12Z?? That's almost a 12 hour difference. 7 hour difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Final Call DCA: 5-7" (5.3") IAD: 6-8" (6.9") JYO: 6-8" (6.2") BWI: 6-8" (7.1") OKV: 5-7" (6.0") MRB: 4-6" (5.2") DMW: 6-8" (7.0") RIC: 2-4" (2.9") Shocker! Baltimore the big winner! Where you from? things taking shape nicely to the south and west over the plains very juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Below is the UKMET qpf that falls after 12z on Thursday. The changeover won't be at 12z for everyone, but this should provide a rough estimate. It looks a little better around Baltimore than the 00z run did. don'tt hey also have a map that shows what falls as snow, or is that just for the rgem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yep, it's been quite good for the past few months....how about other metrics/levels (near surface temps, winds, QPF, etc.)? ECWMF > UKMO overall, even at 24 hours, despite the plot shown there for one metric/region/lead time.Any input on the storm instead of meaningless model verification discussion with PG that is just unnecessary. We know the deal with scores and verification. He's seen it too. How about your forecast for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Shocker! Baltimore the big winner! Where you from? things taking shape nicely to the south and west over the plains very juicy Well I do have more snow than most thanks to Columbia Baltimore being in the jackpot numerous times. You'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm so confused on when we are changing to snow. I've seen a little after midnight, and then I see people posting saying it doesn't until 12Z?? That's almost a 12 hour difference. last i checked... midnight (12) - 6 is ... 6. no where near 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like 23mm as snow or frozen for DC. 850 and 2m below by 12z 25F surface at 1pm and snowing heavily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm so confused on when we are changing to snow. I've seen a little after midnight, and then I see people posting saying it doesn't until 12Z?? That's almost a 12 hour difference. 12z is not 12pm EST lol Z = Zulu time or GMT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 last i checked... midnight (12) - 6 is ... 6. no where near 12 5 hour difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Someone mentioned on Twitter recently that the UKMET is #2, so I'll take your word. It is but it has a high bias for high threshold QPF (>1"/day)...I posted a plot in the banter thread. Something to keep in mind..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Didn't we do this yesterday evening? 00z: 7pm est 06z: 1am est 12z: 7am est 18z: 1pm est Greenwich runs 5hrs ahead of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It is but it has a high bias for high threshold QPF (>1"/day)...I posted a plot in the banter thread. Something to keep in mind.....Good post on the graphs. I agree it needs to be kept in mind but it is no issue having good high qpf. Reduce 25mm of snow even 25% and that's still .8qpf snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Good post on the graphs. I agree it needs to be kept in mind but it is no issue having good high qpf. Reduce 25mm of snow even 25% and that's still .8qpf snow. The way I see this is for most systems this winter modeled qpf was overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It is but it has a high bias for high threshold QPF (>1"/day)...I posted a plot in the banter thread. Something to keep in mind..... Yes, I've noticed it has done well this winter with sniffing out trends with events, etc - but it generally has been a bit too high on QPF. Just my observations; no science to back it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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