usedtobe Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Geez... GGEM is a monster mauling But heaviest actually from DC and locations just to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Like I thought the NAMs NW cutoff is extreme. Cobb for the 12Z NAM: IAD 8.5 DCA 9.5 BWI 7.8 MRB 4.4 9 in westminster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not to divert attention but look at that moisture fetch on radar...dry isn't the first word that comes to mind. The problem is just about everything you are looking at on radar right now coming right at us is the first wave that is going to be mostly rain tonight. The models have been trending towards a stronger first wave and a weaker second the last 3 runs. That is bad because the lead wave is running out ahead of the cold air. The more energy wave one takes off the weaker and more suppressed wave 2 will be behind it. Hopefully models are jumping on the wrong wave and will correct tonight once its out of the way. Sometimes they have issues resolving the 2 wave thing, and perhaps the euro is handing it better. If it holds in 90 minutes I will feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 9.4" in Westminster. Not so dry once you're east of the WV panhandle. Like I thought the NAMs NW cutoff is extreme. Cobb for the 12Z NAM: IAD 8.5 DCA 9.5 BWI 7.8 MRB 4.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Every system has been a nail biter this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It's snowier. 6-8" in the area compared to 4-6" in the 0z run. The meteocentre maps show the 00z GGEM dropping about 0.4-0.6" qpf as snow east of I95, and about 0.6"-0.8" west. Maps aren't out yet for the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Most seem to have trended better once we hit game time. Every system has been a nail biter this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The meteocentre maps show the 00z GGEM dropping about 0.4-0.6" qpf as snow east of I95, and about 0.6"-0.8" west. Maps aren't out yet for the 12z run. AWX has the maps. Anxiously awaiting the UKMET run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Man, folks are going to burn a hole into their monitor staring at those radar returns and nowcasting how these events unfold. Never a sure thing in the world of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 12z UKIE is wet... time to figure out how much of what on the meteograms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 But heaviest actually from DC and locations just to the south. the moisture to the south has that bend-y, up and over look to it. seems like in those situations the axis of mod/heavy is harder to predict, like that 2/21 snowstorm that dissed the southern parts of the area. anyway, not making a call, just an observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 UKMET looks good from 12z on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ukie looks good if it changes to snow by 12Z .5-.75" snow would be my rough guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 UKMET looks good from 12z on. another panel after the 30 hour that has decent qpf too http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=-99&mod2=cmc_anal&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=030&fixhh=1&stn2_type=anal&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=036 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 change time is the big question on the Ukie since we can't tell by those maps when it changes, but that is very, very wet which is very nice to see from the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 the GFS is a mid to long range model. It should never be used 12 hours before a storm unless it gives us alot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The UKMET has been the best short range global this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Meteogram for UKMET from Meteocentre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I would probably say 20-25mm is snow on the 12z UKIE... or ~0.9" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 change time is the big question on the Ukie since we can't tell by those maps when it changes, but that is very, very wet which is very nice to see from the Ukie Just a very rough estimate looking at those panels, but it looks like on the order of ~15mm (0.6") or so after 12Z...assuming it's pretty much all snow after 12Z like most other guidance is showing. There's a bit more actually right after 00Z Thursday night. (ETA: Perhaps I underestimated by looking only at those wide ranges on the precip plots...from the meteogram, and as Yoda mentions, it's probably more like something just over 20mm. And, on looking again, there's really not much right after 00Z Thursday night, about 0.1mm perhaps.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like 23mm as snow or frozen for DC. 850 and 2m below by 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Judging from that, maybe 20-25mm of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Here's what WPC says about how to view and weigh the 12z suite. They'll update as usual after the Euro run completes. ..NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/NORTHEAST... ...COLD FRONT SETTLING THROUGH THE EAST... ...SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND IMPACTING THE MID-ATLANTIC... PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO DOWN THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTH DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. THE 00Z UKMET AND 00Z GEM ARE OVERALL STILL A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION. THE 12Z NAM/12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE A TAD FASTER TO DROP THE FRONT DOWN TO THE SOUTH...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST GEFS MEAN/SREF MEAN AND ECENS MEAN. MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND SHOULD CROSS THE OH VALLEY BY LATE THURS AND THEN THE NORTHEAST THURS NIGHT. THIS ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A COUPLE OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WHICH SHOULD TRACK FROM THE TN VALLEY THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON THURS BEFORE EJECTING RAPIDLY OUT TO SEA. WILL FAVOR THE MORE STRONGLY CLUSTERED 12Z NAM/12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF GIVEN THE STRONGER ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just a very rough estimate looking at those panels, but it looks like on the order of ~15mm (0.6") or so after 12Z...assuming it's pretty much all snow after 12Z like most other guidance is showing. There's a bit more actually right after 00Z Thursday night. looks like it might be a change time of 13z or 14z on the Ukie, but that would still get you .6-.7" qpf I would guess as snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like 23mm as snow or frozen for DC. 850 and 2m below by 12z Judging from that, maybe 20-25mm of snow? 850 hits 0 right at 12Z, so I doubt that is all snow....see my guess above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 the GFS is a mid to long range model. It should never be used 12 hours before a storm unless it gives us alot of snow You are the NAM of this board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 850 hits 0 right at 12Z, so I doubt that is all snow....see my guess above The last two columns are snow... 14mm and 8mm... and you get 20-25mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 850 hits 0 right at 12Z, so I doubt that is all snow....see my guess above Yeah, I subtracted about 5 or so MM from the 12z column. Probably about 18-22mm of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The UKMET has been the best short range global this winter. Cool, where are the stats to back up that claim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 850 hits 0 right at 12Z, so I doubt that is all snow....see my guess aboveI'd guess around 20mm snow for BWI bare minimum. Probably 25mm. Just based on previous runs and the differences on the wxbell maps. Around 8" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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