aldie 22 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not to divert attention but look at that moisture fetch on radar...dry isn't the first word that comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not to divert attention but look at that moisture fetch on radar...dry isn't the first word that comes to mind.Oh don't worry you're reading my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm pretty sure that was the Super Bowl storm, the 18Z GFS bailed and the 0Z Euro followed. That was also not 18 hours out from the start, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Oh don't worry you're reading my mind. I like the north trajectory as well...for now as the cold comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I like the north trajectory as well...for now as the cold comesRemember my call from the other day? I'm pretty much status quo. I could go find it but I'm not good at that like you guys. However, I'll rewrite my final call at 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The 12z gfs is actually a little better in my view....little more expansive on the north edge with precip. Pretty close with totals after the flip to the 0z and 6z runs. If the Euro can hold at its solution (wet dream....literally and figuratively), then I'm done with models. And probably radar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Remember my call from the other day? I'm pretty much status quo. I could go find it but I'm not good at that like you guys. However, I'll rewrite my final call at 1. Why don't you just remind us what you said? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not to divert attention but look at that moisture fetch on radar...dry isn't the first word that comes to mind. Isn't the Euro better with southern stream systems anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 looks dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not like its really dry anyway. 12Z GFS still gives all of us over an inch of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Isn't the Euro better with southern stream systems anyway? Historically, yes. With the new GFS, who knows how big that advantage is. If the Euro holds at 12z, I'd probably hedge a little lower, but not go down to the GFS' levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 it really just comes down to the timing of how long it takes for the arctic high to push everything through after the change I doubt you'd ever get complete consensus on something like that considering the differences with the SE ridge on the models; and I don't mean a warm SE ridge, just the ridge that is out there right now http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=pr&inv=0&t=cur&expanddiv=hide_bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think it's interesting to match up the HPC snow forecasts and the NWS warnings with what we, here, view on the models. Their heaviest snow thoughts are north of what the precip maps spit out..........or maybe it's just me being paranoid about being dry out here. For instance, I would think the areas south of Charlottesville would be looking at advisories based on the models, but I don't see any there. The HPC heavy snow progs were also north of where I thought they'd be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Historically, yes. With the new GFS, who knows how big that advantage is. If the Euro holds at 12z, I'd probably hedge a little lower, but not go down to the GFS' levels. That would be how I'd play it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think it's interesting to match up the HPC snow forecasts and the NWS warnings with what we, here, view on the models. Their heaviest snow thoughts are north of what the precip maps spit out..........or maybe it's just me being paranoid about being dry out here. For instance, I would think the areas south of Charlottesville would be looking at advisories based on the models, but I don't see any there. The HPC heavy snow progs were also north of where I thought they'd be. The EURO also dropped over a foot for most of KY... I do not believe that will even come close to verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Historically, yes. With the new GFS, who knows how big that advantage is. If the Euro holds at 12z, I'd probably hedge a little lower, but not go down to the GFS' levels. Euro gave us .7 qpf of snow. Why would you go lower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not real sure why everyone is saying this was great. It looks like less snow than previous runs to me... because there are a lot of people over a large area that will have very different results in this forum. And depending on their location they have very different "worries". Up here temps are not a concern, qpf is so its worse. If you are in DC or anywhere south of there temperatures are probably the worry first in their mind and so they see colder and that equals good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro gave us .7 qpf of snow. Why would you go lower? Because blending model forecasts is usually the best method? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GGEM running now, looks very wet at 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Wow. It's really something how we had more model consistency outside of 24 hours than we do now. What's going on? High pressure stronger than predicted, or? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 If it can still be used, GGEM is very nice ETA: snowing heavily in DC at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like someone is a believer in the MoCo-HoCo death band. (Howard Bernstein, http://pic.twitter.com/qK60eLMQO0) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GGEM has a direct hit at hour 30, wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Geez... GGEM is a monster mauling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ggem went the opposite way of the gfs. Wet and csnowy. Details soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Ggem went the opposite way of the gfs. Wet and csnowy. Details soon Different than the RGEM? The higher resolution has to be the way to go at this point, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Geez... GGEM is a monster mauling How does this compare to last night's GGEM, out of curiosity? I didn't see much of the discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like someone is a believer in the MoCo-HoCo death band. (Howard Bernstein, http://pic.twitter.com/qK60eLMQO0) trying to nail down the banding on a snow map is silly. they should have just put 4-8, with a chance of 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 How does this compare to last night's GGEM, out of curiosity? I didn't see much of the discussion. It's snowier. 6-8" in the area compared to 4-6" in the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Like I thought the NAMs NW cutoff is extreme. Cobb for the 12Z NAM: IAD 8.5 DCA 9.5 BWI 7.8 MRB 4.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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