nj2va Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 4-6" seems like a good call right now for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 4-6" seems like a good call right now for DC. Yeah I still like 2-5/3-6 for DC. If more guidance comes in like that NAM this afternoon I'd bump to 4-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looking at the NAM 12z bufr output for DCA, rain changes to sleet between 8 and 9z. It changes to snow between 13 and 14z. Approx 0.81" liquid falls after the change to snow. Temperatures are in the 29-31 range during the snow. There is a distinct lull in the precip (0.02" per hour) between 10 and 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Interesting that the forecast high for today has dropped quite a bit as days have gone by. I think a few days ago it was forecast to 53 IMBY, now 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 4-6" seems like a good call right now for DC. Yeah I still like 2-5/3-6 for DC. If more guidance comes in like that NAM this afternoon I'd bump to 4-8. Not saying 4-6" is a bad call, but didn't last night's Euro (the world's best weather modelTM) give DC 6-10"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 4-6" seems like a good call right now for DC.But if things were to trend south, wouldn't it be closer to 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 In Maryland, snowfall totals from the 12z RGEM are very similar to the 06z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 12z GFS has the 0c 850 line crossing DCA at 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not saying 4-6" is a bad call, but didn't last night's Euro (the world's best weather modelTM) give DC 6-10"? It did, that's what I'm kind of confused by the 2-5 oddness. No model was that low at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not saying 4-6" is a bad call, but didn't last night's Euro (the world's best weather modelTM) give DC 6-10"? But if things were to trend south, wouldn't it be closer to 6-8" I'm not sure I'm ready to pull the trigger on higher totals yet. Always room to bump up to 6-8" if Euro holds and GFS comes in wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 DCA sleet sounding at 09z... prob snow hour later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 12z GFS has the 0c 850 line getting ready to cross DCA at 07z Still a gap between GFS and other models, but so long as the rest of the run works out, I'm fine with saying precip flips between 3-7am. ETA - Maybe even 5-7am given the soundings, which it brings it into line with the rest of the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS still looking quite dry at 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS still looking quite dry at 24 hours. like the NAM, it comes a little later I "think" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Hr. 33 is an improvement. Maybe it's moving towards the delayed second thump scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 like the NAM, it comes a little later I "think" Definitely a little light north of DC...but i didn't even look at 6z so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Hr. 33 is an improvement. Maybe it's moving towards the delayed second thump scenario. 30-36 looks fine. Looks like the NAM to me, actually, during that period, including a tight cut off the other side of the PA border. Can we get enough down between 7am-9am to keep the roads covered until the heavy guns arrive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 About 3-5" per AWX and IWM maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 30-36 looks fine. Looks like the NAM to me, actually, during that period, including a tight cut off the other side of the PA border. Can we get enough down between 7am-9am to keep the roads covered until the heavy guns arrive? Still comes in drier, looks more like 4-5 inches to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS 9Z tomorrow at BWI LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1010 72 0.5 -0.9 91 1.4 -0.0 347 13 272.9 273.4 272.6 282.4 3.55 1 1000 152 0.2 -1.5 88 1.7 -0.4 349 19 273.4 273.9 272.7 282.6 3.42 2 950 561 -3.2 -4.0 94 0.8 -3.4 346 30 274.0 274.5 272.4 282.2 2.99 3 900 988 -3.6 -5.4 87 1.8 -4.3 324 30 277.8 278.3 274.4 285.7 2.84 4 850 1442 -1.0 -2.5 90 1.5 -1.6 283 30 285.1 285.8 279.4 295.8 3.75 5 800 1927 0.1 -0.3 97 0.4 -0.1 252 35 291.3 292.1 283.3 304.8 4.68 6 750 2445 0.1 -0.0 99 0.1 0.0 247 49 296.7 297.6 285.9 311.7 5.09 7 700 2998 -0.9 -1.0 99 0.1 -1.0 248 64 301.5 302.4 287.6 316.7 5.07 8 650 3588 -2.5 -2.6 99 0.2 -2.6 246 77 306.2 307.1 289.0 321.1 4.85 9 600 4220 -5.8 -5.9 99 0.1 -5.9 246 89 309.4 310.2 289.4 322.2 4.09 10 550 4898 -9.3 -10.8 89 1.5 -9.9 250 95 313.0 313.6 289.6 322.8 3.05 11 500 5630 -12.9 -18.1 65 5.2 -14.6 252 99 317.3 317.6 289.8 323.4 1.84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yeah I still like 2-5/3-6 for DC. If more guidance comes in like that NAM this afternoon I'd bump to 4-8. Smart move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS 9Z tomorrow at BWI Probably snow if rates are decent. SNPL if it is light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It did, that's what I'm kind of confused by the 2-5 oddness. No model was that low at 0z. Euro has been steady as a rock for the most part. Engage hug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Cobb output for NAM - Westminster 4z snow/sleet 5z all snow .75 qpf 9.4 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro has been steady as a rock for the most part. Engage hug. Yeah, basically. I'm anxious to see the 12z run either way. One of the other storms this winter (can't recall), we saw the GFS start to make a move one way in an off-hour run and then the Euro followed suit in its next run, but not sure that means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 My over/under imby is 4" and I'll gladly take that and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 looks like at or a little over .4" falls as snow at BWI on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro has been steady as a rock for the most part. Engage hug. yes it has. Not much change with what it showed other than start/end times which is really splitting hairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yeah, basically. I'm anxious to see the 12z run either way. One of the other storms this winter (can't recall), we saw the GFS start to make a move one way in an off-hour run and then the Euro followed suit in its next run, but not sure that means anything. I'm pretty sure that was the Super Bowl storm, the 18Z GFS bailed and the 0Z Euro followed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro has been steady as a rock for the most part. Engage hug. I'm just feeling like hedging low due to 3 factors. I think I'll roll with 3-6 for now. 1) changeover time and amount of sleet still in question 2) amount of precip post changeover still in question 3) significant amount of our snow will fall during the day in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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