eurojosh Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM joins GFS for the Fri AM single digits. Record low for the date is 10, I think, and if DCA does reach single digits, that would be the latest it has done it.* *happy to be corrected by someone with better records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yeah, thank God the NAM came aboard. No way I would have felt confident with only the combination of GFS, EURO, UKMET, GGEM, SREFS, RGEM et all showing this. Storm uncancel! Fine. You were right. I will never pay attention to the NAM again - never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looking at the NAM QPF if puts down .75"+ between 7AM and 4PM. So about 7.5" (using 10-1 ratio) in 9 hours, which averages out to a rate of nearly inch/hour (exactly .83" of snow/hour). I have a hard time believing we can do inch per hour in DC metro for close to 9 hours, but if it's anywhere close to reality, that will be one hell of a show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM'd. Solid 6-10 inches for the Baltimore area it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 We all knew it was coming. Not sure I ever remember a true snowstorm that we didn't get at least one NAM'd run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Just catching up here. Good to see this in the NAM, hopefully the GFS holds the line as well and comes in wetter than 06Z. The area-wide 4-8" that several have mentioned is still looking pretty solid. There has to be the standard Bob Chill Rockville jackpot in there somewhere! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not real sure why everyone is saying this was great. It looks like less snow than previous runs to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 this is an awful chart. I cant tell the difference between 4 and 10 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I really hope local weather emphasizes the snowfall rates, as what's being advertised by all the models would be crippling rates of snow for 6-9 hours that could leave motorists stranded on the roads much like commutegeddon. The rates are almost more important to emphasize than the total accumulation, IMHO - since road crews likely won't be able to keep up with the rates currently being advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not real sure why everyone is saying this was great. It looks like less snow than previous runs to me... because it wasnt the 1-3 inches the 6z gfs gave us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks great. Better than previous runs. Not real sure why everyone is saying this was great. It looks like less snow than previous runs to me... Allrighty then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yeah, thank God the NAM came aboard. No way I would have felt confident with only the combination of GFS, EURO, UKMET, GGEM, SREFS, RGEM et all showing this. Storm uncancel! God, that is an awesome post. That said, wasn't the Euro much drier this morning? I was scanning the thread this morning and looked like the Euro sucked all the moisture out of the system. Edit: The GFS, not the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Crazy totals in southern Arkansas. Don't know how they are going to deal with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Allrighty then. Awesome catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I really hope local weather emphasizes the snowfall rates, as what's being advertised by all the models would be crippling rates of snow for 6-9 hours that could leave motorists stranded on the roads much like commutegeddon. The rates are almost more important to emphasize than the total accumulation, IMHO - since road crews likely won't be able to keep up with the rates currently being advertised. If this happens as advertised, I don't think we'll have a Commutageddon disaster. That event hit at the end of the day with everyone at work already. This one will be starting around or before the morning commute, and by then I'm sure there will be cancellations/delays/telework/etc. in place. But you're right, a mention of how treacherous it could be might at least keep people from attempting to go out on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 here is my happiness chart. It dosent take much for me 1-3 inches.....March 2001/Dec 2010 type bust 4-5 inches....deflating. " I spent all these hours on this storm for 4 inches" 6 inches....cool. When is the next one 8 to 9 inches. Satisfaction 10 or more inches. This winter didnt suck after all. 2 double digit storms for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 God, that is an awesome post. That said, wasn't the Euro much drier this morning? I was scanning the thread this morning and looked like the Euro sucked all the moisture out of the system. Edit: The GFS, not the Euro. Yes, Euro looked great last night (so did the entire 00Z suite actually), 06Z GFS raised eyebrows. Hopefully it goes more on the precip at 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 here is my happiness chart. It dosent take much for me 1-3 inches.....March 2001/Dec 2010 type bust 4-5 inches....deflating. " I spent all these hours on this storm for 4 inches" 6 inches....cool. When is the next one 8 to 9 inches. Satisfaction 10 or more inches. This winter didnt suck after all. 2 double digit storms for me! Sounds about right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 this is an awful chart. I cant tell the difference between 4 and 10 inches of snow It shows your house with 2-3" you ok with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 whats it show for queens? A dusting? It looks like it's reacting to down sloping off of the hills...just like thunderstorm...see that white stripe...it goes right through our hood. I'm fully on board for 6.8" and yes...I'm gonna come home this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not real sure why everyone is saying this was great. It looks like less snow than previous runs to me... It's certainly continues the trend (which I'll admit I never thought would happen). It gets rave reviews because it jackpots DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 12z RGEM at 24 -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/592_100.gif 36 -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/593_100.gif Color maps in a few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 High res NAM has trended drier from 00z to 06z to 12z. Some shifts in the jackpot areas, but drier overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 for the southern region of the LWX area and based upon latest guidance, still looking good for a general 3-6 in the EZF area...keep the bar set at a realistic range and be very happy with an above climo snowfall in a pretty rare setup. if everything works out perfectly, maybe someone down here slants a 6"+ measurement. eta: fully expecting a 'pulsing' of the precip pattern. have seen it many times in these setups (albeit with rainfall) where the prog is for hours and hours of heavy rain and it turns out to be periods of very heavy precip w/ pretty well defined lulls between. not a total shutting off of the precip, but down to heavy misting at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 so is this storm a pure rain to snow situation or are we dealing with a rain, lull, cold air settles in overnight, wave rides along front? just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM seems to go a little dry after the cold air gets here, but I guess I'll wait for other vendor maps before being certain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM joins GFS for the Fri AM single digits. Record low for the date is 10, I think, and if DCA does reach single digits, that would be the latest it has done it.* *happy to be corrected by someone with better records. I haven't looked but id bet DCA doesn't go below 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 God, that is an awesome post. That said, wasn't the Euro much drier this morning? I was scanning the thread this morning and looked like the Euro sucked all the moisture out of the system. Edit: The GFS, not the Euro. That was the 6z GFS, yes. We'll see in a few minutes if it was a burp or real trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM looks like it gives us about 11-12mm of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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