aldie 22 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Do you realize a 3-6" snow is a bust when your nws forecast is 8-10. You make your own maps...why are you concerned about the NWS one? What would you give your area based on guidance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Area-wide 4-8" has been on the table for awhile now, and others in here have stated that amount. I'm sticking with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 lol @ taking the NWS forecast seriously. They are either playing catch up after the event started, or ballsy 24 hours in advanced. Come on, you've been following the weather long enough to know what is realistic given the set up. Calm down. Enjoy the ride. I don't that's why their 8-10 doesn't comfort me when things are trending the wrong way. Look I'm not going to clog up this thread with anymore about this but we need the bleeding south to stop at 12z. This is directed at the md line area, yesterday when I got up and looked at all the overnight runs they plastered us with 8-15" depending on the run. It was a qpf bomb with one consolidated wave. Today I got up and euro looked perfect but nam gfs gefs sref and rgem all trended dryer and more strung out with the wave. I'm not saying its over. Euro could be right and 12z bounces back to a stronger wave idea but if 12z continues this trend our last chance to get a nice 10" snow up here could easily turn into another Blah 3-4". I don't stick my head in the sand. Last I'll say on this. Will wait firv12z and hope for a more amped solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I don't that's why their 8-10 doesn't comfort me when things are trending the wrong way. Look I'm not going to clog up this thread with anymore about this but we need the bleeding south to stop at 12z. This is directed at the md line area, yesterday when I got up and looked at all the overnight runs they plastered us with 8-15" depending on the run. It was a qpf bomb with one consolidated wave. Today I got up and euro looked perfect but nam gfs gefs sref and rgem all trended dryer and more strung out with the wave. I'm not saying its over. Euro could be right and 12z bounces back to a stronger wave idea but if 12z continues this trend our last chance to get a nice 10" snow up here could easily turn into another Blah 3-4". I don't stick my head in the sand. Last I'll say on this. Will wait firv12z and hope for a more amped solution. remember bernie rayno predicted the models would shift south, oh my just waiting for this to begin see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Every member of the 06z suite came in drier. These numbers are estimates for my back yard, but it's pretty widespread. 00z NAM 0.83" RGEM 0.67" HR RGEM 0.91" GFS 0.55" 06z NAM 0.67" RGEM 0.55" HR RGEM 0.75" GFS 0.35" For jyo the 0z and 6z were nearly identical in fact the 6z nam was a little more robust. Gfs was a little less but not much...changeover time is uncertain for me. Don't have the RGEM ...I'm sticking with my 6.8" call for the burg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fodie77 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Difference in QPF between the GFS and NAM is crazy for RIC. Cobb output for GFS has RIC at 6". The NAM has us at 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gordonheimer Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Difference in QPF between the GFS and NAM is crazy for RIC. Cobb output for GFS has RIC at 6". The NAM has us at 0. Along the same lines, the GFS has been showing this hit of frozen precip here in SE VA but the NAM shows nada. Odd! Local Mets arent buying the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 SREF holds serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 For jyo the 0z and 6z were nearly identical in fact the 6z nam was a little more robust. Gfs was a little less but not much...changeover time is uncertain for me. Don't have the RGEM ...I'm sticking with my 6.8" call for the burg I think that's a pretty good call for us. Im thinking changeover between 1 and 3 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 9Z SREF mean has DC comfortably within the 0.5" contour for the period of accumulating snow (12z Thursday - 12z Friday). Baltimore is fairly comfortable within that contour too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The plume mean went up over 8" for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The plume mean went up over 8" for DCA The ARW mean is 13". Toss those and the mean is still 6". Not bad. edit - adding the 3hr precip totals post-12z (no ARW) is 0.49" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Mean on the SREFs for DC is about 7". Some outliers on the high end at 15" and on the low end at 2.5". Tightest concentration of members is in the 5-8" range. More like 6-10" for BWI after you take out the outliers on either side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 9Z SREF mean has DC comfortably within the 0.5" contour for the period of accumulating snow (12z Thursday - 12z Friday). Baltimore is fairly comfortable within that contour too. If I recall correctly, that's more or less the range we were looking at not too long ago for the snow part. I think people got a bit wide-eyed at some of the more extreme solutions that were pushing upwards of a foot of snow in some areas in the last day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 For jyo the 0z and 6z were nearly identical in fact the 6z nam was a little more robust. Gfs was a little less but not much...changeover time is uncertain for me. Don't have the RGEM ...I'm sticking with my 6.8" call for the burg Looks like RGEM cut you back by about 0.2", but it's hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 What models are the NMB sref plumes associated with? Those are the lowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM through 9 looks almost identical to its last run. At 15hrs, still similar, but SLP is further east than prior runs, over the center of the VA-NC border. - 3z, prob snow in Hagerstown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The NAM is slightly colder and holding back a bigger slug of moisture. Should be a great run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM through 9 looks almost identical to its last run. At 15hrs, still similar, but SLP is further east than prior runs, over the center of the VA-NC border. - 3z, prob snow in Hagerstown... Meanwhile, 4k nam at hr 3 (yes, I know) seems to be wetter over KY, TN, WV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Colder. Hr 18, 06Z, prob snow in Rockville, but prob PL in Leesburg for some reason... ETA - SLP off Virginia capes, rather than onshore. Probably helps. Heavy precip in DC metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Hr 21... uh oh.. flip to sleet and lighter precip across area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 They use the NMMB core, which the the same core that the NAM uses. The base state for the analysis, to which perturbations are applied, is the NAM data assimilation system. What models are the NMB sref plumes associated with? Those are the lowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM showing very intense rates around 7 to 10am...hope it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks colder through the column but slower to cool at the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 HR 24.. looks like back to SN, just around dawn. Next 6hrs should be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 HR 24.. looks like back to SN, just around dawn. so 12z Thursday SN? or 7am. I am on my phone can see maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Band of moderate/heavy snow through the cities starting around dawn...we all know where that will end up at verification Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 so 12z Thursday SN? or 7am. I am on my phone can see maps. Yes - 12z, ie 7am. Tight cut off to the north for the south PA folks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 oh man it's a lot of snow on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The northern guys are not gonna be real happy with that brutal cutoff. But its a DCA crush job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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