aldie 22 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 No, it didn't. However, it is drier across most of the LWX region. When can we expect your revised map with dull gray everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I am thinking the GFS is trying to be too accurate for its own good. Recall yesterday with the small scale weird precip shadows off the mountains, almost seems like it is trying to do that to our entire region now after the changeover. Every storm this year that the GFS has been much better than the Euro on has been a coastal storm, this storm is a very different beast and the upgraded GFS is not yet proven on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 RGEM 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 6z RGEM is about 4mm sleet and 13mm snow for DC (0.16 and 0.51, respectively). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Obs: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45945-march-5th-storm-obs/#entry3477490 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Re: 06z GFS Given the consistency of the GEFS and how the ensembles match up with the preponderance of the guidance I would take the OP 06z GFS with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 6ZGEFS are majorly wetter mostly then the top left OP. 12z should be much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Had to sleep before last nights euro run. It is obviously incredible. The 6z gfs not so much. The euro gives me 10 inches the gfs 4. Thats a pretty huge spread within 24 hours of onset of an event. One of them is going to bust hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Happens every storm. Gfs ends up being the driest model. with 24 hours...euro rgem nam and the high res models are better to use Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Happens every storm. Gfs ends up being the driest model. with 24 hours...euro rgem nam and the high res models are better to use seems like it used to be the Euro...the change is interesting. And maybe I have selective memory but it always seems to be the 6z that takes a dump in the chili bowl....I don't buy into the off run nonsense as we know that is not true but 6z just seems to be the hangover run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The 06Z GFS is notorious for taking away the euphoria from the previous night. 12Z will correct itself. Yup, especially since the 6z ensembles are holding. The OP is up to its usual shtick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 LWX basically skipped over the Wed night snow in their discussion last night. Kinda funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So catching up on the Euro and 6z GFS. I'll only be lightly concerned if the 12z GFS continues to dry. Somehow I doubt it does when all the other models are QPF heavy. Also, hasn't the Euro greatness in the past always been in a southern stream system? GFS not nearly as good in this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The 06Z GFS is notorious for taking away the euphoria from the previous night. 12Z will correct itself. Since 8"+ snows are very rare (current nws forecast 8-10) I am always looking for what will screw me over this time. My concern is if this becomes two waves. First is mostly wasted before the cold arrives and the second slides south keeping the best vvs and banding south. Still would get some snow but not the 6-10 our forecast is. I liked the look 24 hours ago way better when everything looked like last nights euro with one consolidated wave not several pulses. Maybe the pros can chime in and tell me if that is legit or I'm just being my paranoid self. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like the NAM has come around after a slow start. How are the verification scores tabulated on the accuracy of the models? Obviously we don't yet know how the storm will end up but if the 6z GFS is a blip, how does that figure in to its final score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yup, especially since the 6z ensembles are holding. The OP is up to its usual shtick.I swear people see what they want. Explain how this is holding?Last 3 gefs snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I swear people see what they want. Explain how this is holding? Last 3 gefs snow Well I think it's still showing a widespread 6+ inches which is basically everyone's goal here, but yeah that trend isn't pretty. Any reports on the EPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Well I think it's still showing a widespread 6+ inches which is basically everyone's goal here, but yeah that trend isn't pretty. Any reports on the EPS? Exactly the same as 12z. 7" for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I swear people see what they want. Explain how this is holding? Last 3 gefs snow image.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpg I think the statement can also apply to you...as you appear to only be looking for things that screw you. If people walk into this knowing a solid 3-6 4-8" is on the table then EVERY model is inside that envelope....if you're a size queen then you're probably gonna be disappointed...sorry bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Didn't see Cobb numbers posted: For Westminster: 00z NAM 7z changeover .89qpf 10.7 snow 06z NAM 9z changeover .67qpf 7.3 snow 00z GFS 9z changeover .42qpf 7.3 snow (some snow/sleet prior to pure snow changeover) 06z GFS 6z changeover .24qpf 3.5 snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I swear people see what they want. Explain how this is holding? Last 3 gefs snow I don't think that's necessarily as bad as it looks. Ensembles will always have a spread. That spread can only get tighter as the event approaches. Because you can't go below zero snow (though it feels like we do, here!), and as the higher producing members approach the mean, the overall image of the ensemble mean will almost always show shrinkage as the event approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I like the CWG forecast for DC: 4-7 inches Gonna be hard to get 6-10 here and always worried that the storm will be a little drier. But hopefully the 6z GFS is just noise - either way, still a solid event. I still have a thick layer of ice on the ground in many areas in Navy Yard so I really doubt stickage will be a major problem. Hope 12z runs look good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I don't think that's necessarily as bad as it looks. Ensembles will always have a spread. That spread can only get tighter as the event approaches. Because you can't go below zero snow (though it feels like we do, here!), and as the higher producing members approach the mean, the overall image of the ensemble mean will almost always show shrinkage as the event approaches. ensembles aren't supposed to be used 24hrs from an event start time. time to focus on high-res models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The NAM cut back on precip from 00Z as well. We will need to see if this look continues in the 12Z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Every member of the 06z suite came in drier. These numbers are estimates for my back yard, but it's pretty widespread. 00z NAM 0.83" RGEM 0.67" HR RGEM 0.91" GFS 0.55" 06z NAM 0.67" RGEM 0.55" HR RGEM 0.75" GFS 0.35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think the statement can also apply to you...as you appear to only be looking for things that screw you. If people walk into this knowing a solid 3-6 4-8" is on the table then EVERY model is inside that envelope....if you're a size queen then you're probably gonna be disappointed...sorry broDo you realize a 3-6" snow is a bust when your nws forecast is 8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Do you realize a 3-6" snow is a bust when your nws forecast is 8-10. I didn't realize that the NWS forecast had to be our benchmark for this system. If only there were other forecasts out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Do you realize a 3-6" snow is a bust when your nws forecast is 8-10. lol @ taking the NWS forecast seriously. They are either playing catch up after the event started, or ballsy 24 hours in advanced. Come on, you've been following the weather long enough to know what is realistic given the set up. Calm down. Enjoy the ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 PSU - you'll prolly get banded as usual. no need to worryI know last year it happened a lot (I wasn't here for it though) but this year someone has said that every storm and it has yet to happen. Its not as automatic as many think. IF it was I would average 50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 No offense but lol to the calls for increased QPF as we close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.