stormtracker Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Other thread is approaching 2k posts. Please use this thread for MODEL DISCUSSION only. Banter goes in the banter thread. Mods, heavy hand on this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 at 6 hrs. on the 0Z NAM you can see it's already further south than 18Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 If the NAM gives you more than 0.4" liquid equivalent in a 3 hr period it's almost definitely showing sleet not snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The NAM is either on to something or is infuriating. It persists on showing less precip. than the GFS and slows down the advance of the cold air compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 24 hr. map looks better than 18Z at 30 hrs. as it's a hair colder, but has a ton more precip to the SW waiting to move NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwgNAS Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 2:09 AM, mitchnick said: 24 hr. map looks better than 18Z at 30 hrs. as it's a hair colder, but has a ton more precip to the SW waiting to move NE Is that a bad thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Here it comes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 2:10 AM, cwgNAS said: Is that a bad thing? no! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 0c 850 line is on the VA/WV border by 06z THUR (1am) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Amazing how there is about 30 miles between the 10c and 0c 850 lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 it's going to be better than 18Z I believe, but still not as good as globals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 2:15 AM, mitchnick said: it's going to be better than 18Z I believe, but still not as good as globals It's continuing to step towards the global (better) models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The entire column is below freezing for most people in this sub-forum by 12Z Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 2:15 AM, mitchnick said: it's going to be better than 18Z I believe, but still not as good as globals Too slow with the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 12z THUR is sleet in DC... but it will changeover to snow soon... 700-750mb is the warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 2:16 AM, nj2va said: It's continuing to step towards the global (better) models. Grudgingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM is not backing down. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 2:17 AM, Snowman. said: Too slow with the cold air. yes, but the question is still does the precip hold on like the Euro showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwgNAS Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 2:17 AM, winterymix said: The entire column is below freezing for most people in this sub-forum by 12Z Thursday. USA_MXTMP_clm_036.gif Ya know, except for all of NOVA south of DC, and southern Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The NAM gives only a little snow to this sub-forum by 12Z on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 DCA at 9z Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 2:19 AM, cwgNAS said: Ya know, except for all of NOVA south of DC, and southern Maryland. It is one model, the outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 2:19 AM, Disc said: DCA at 9z Thursday morning. sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Side by side comparison with 18Z the cold at 12Z Thursday is in nearly the same place. Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 2:21 AM, winterymix said: sleet At best. That could very well be a rain-sleet mix. Total furnace aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Now we have to hope the other 0z models hold serve or it could be a historic coup for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2015 Author Share Posted March 4, 2015 Snow at 39 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On 3/4/2015 at 2:21 AM, WxUSAF said: At best. That could very well be a rain-sleet mix. Total furnace aloft. Why, oh why is the NAM doing this? I wonder if it sees the retreating high pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean as being strong enough to keep the arctic airmass from entering the region as rapidly as the other models are suggesting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 for BWI, I think the NAM is fine I can tell by composite radar the cold and the precip is just delayed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 It is snowing by late morning in DC, which is better than the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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