Ian Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 If the UKMET verifies, I am changing my username to UKMETFanboy UKMET is usually wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 3-6 is still a good call in my opinion for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Raise your hand if you ever thought 6-10" was a realistic call for this storm? north and west maybe.. here we'd need to be lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm going with Roger smith 15 to 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Raise your hand if you ever thought 6-10" was a realistic call for this storm?I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 You can pretty much sum up how the next 24 hours will unfold with the following: 9:30 - Darn. NAM is still underwhelming. OMG, I'm only getting 3-6" 10:45 - SOB. GFS still only gives me 4-5" 1 AM when all of the ninnies are asleep - Nice run on the Euro. We got this 2:30 AM - Yoda to himself - SREFs look good 7:00 AM - People awake to see that the 6Z GFS/NAM are still 3-6" and continue to worry 7:10 AM - WTF. It's still sleeting outside. FML 10:00 AM - MD issued for 1-2" per hour rates for the next 2 hours. Everyone jumps for joy. Sometime in the late afternoon - Nice we all got 4-8" and some dude on Rte 27 in Carroll County measured 10" on an 8" ruler. Does that seem close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Gonna be a tough call for OPM and school districts, when they do their 5 AM check it's all going to look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Raise your hand if you ever thought 6-10" was a realistic call for this storm? I did, and I still think most are in the game to at least reach the lower end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 You can pretty much sum up how the next 24 hours will unfold with the following: 9:30 - Darn. NAM is still underwhelming. OMG, I'm only getting 3-6" 10:45 - SOB. GFS still only gives me 4-5" 1 AM when all of the ninnies are asleep - Nice run on the Euro. We got this 2:30 AM - Yoda to himself - SREFs look good 7:00 AM - People awake to see that the 6Z GFS/NAM are still 3-6" and continue to worry 7:10 AM - WTF. It's still sleeting outside. FML 10:00 AM - MD issued for 1-2" per hour rates for the next 2 hours. Everyone jumps for joy. Sometime in the late afternoon - Nice we all got 4-8" and some dude on Rte 27 in Carroll County measured 10" on an 8" ruler. Does that seem close? Absolutely! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 You can pretty much sum up how the next 24 hours will unfold with the following: 9:30 - Darn. NAM is still underwhelming. OMG, I'm only getting 3-6" 10:45 - SOB. GFS still only gives me 4-5" 1 AM when all of the ninnies are asleep - Nice run on the Euro. We got this 2:30 AM - Yoda to himself - SREFs look good 7:00 AM - People awake to see that the 6Z GFS/NAM are still 3-6" and continue to worry 7:10 AM - WTF. It's still sleeting outside. FML 10:00 AM - MD issued for 1-2" per hour rates for the next 2 hours. Everyone jumps for joy. Sometime in the late afternoon - Nice we all got 4-8" and some dude on Rte 27 in Carroll County measured 10" on an 8" ruler. Does that seem close? Lol, pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I did, and I still think most are in the game to at least reach the lower end The pros think it's within realistic possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 if I hear one more person say...I'll be happy with 4 because it's March 4th...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I did, and I still think most are in the game to at least reach the lower end I don't think 6-10 is out of the question....if the EURO is showing it 24 hours before game time I'm not ruling it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Gonna be a tough call for OPM and school districts, when they do their 5 AM check it's all going to look good. I think if schools and OPM consult with NWS its a pretty easy call to at least delay and see what happens, but more than likely close. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if OPM calls it tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think if schools and OPM consult with NWS its a pretty easy call to at least delay and see what happens, but more than likely close. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if OPM calls it tonight. DC has a snow emergency starting 7 AM, they will call tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Lol, pretty good. Then tomorrow you deal with the lies about snow totals. 1. You can't measure in grass. 2. You can't measure right beside your house. 3. You can't measure on top of an old snow pile. 4. You can't give a "looks like" measurement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 DC has a snow emergency starting 7 AM, they will call tonight. The real nail in the coffin will be when Metro announces they will be running a Saturday schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 if I hear one more person say...I'll be happy with 4 because it's March 4th...... Keep us grounded Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Then tomorrow you deal with the lies about snow totals. 1. You can't measure in grass. 2. You can't measure right beside your house. 3. You can't measure on top of an old snow pile. 4. You can't give a "looks like" measurement. Hey i do all 4 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 OPM is going to close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 DC has a snow emergency starting 7 AM, they will call tonight. I hope so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 you can't make this sh*t up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I never thought 10" was "likely" for anyone. Simple math. 10" requires 10 hours of snowfall at an average rate of 1"/hr @ 10:1. That's a lot to ask unless there is some sort of upper level low or coastal low. It's still possible because of the unusual setup of a mega moisture feed and slow moving boundary. But 10" of snow usually requires a "storm" and not a "wave". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 12z UKMET FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Paul Kocin vs. pdIII - tough call. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 some dude on Rte 27 in Carroll County measured 10" on an 8" ruler. Does that seem close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwgNAS Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Gonna be a tough call for OPM and school districts, when they do their 5 AM check it's all going to look good. If they actually read the forecast it should be easy, big if there though. I think if schools and OPM consult with NWS its a pretty easy call to at least delay and see what happens, but more than likely close. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if OPM calls it tonight. A delay would probably be the most stupidest move a school system could make, considering there will likely be far more hazardous conditions at 9 AM then 7 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Most schools closed the evening before 3/3 last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Paul Kocin vs. pdIII - tough call. Sent from my iPhone I put in a bit of a rant in the main model discussion thread, which perhaps was not the best place for that. But I saw PDIII's "no way in March" comment and I *had* to say something. Basically I mentioned that last year, I got 3" snow on March 25 during the day...three weeks later than this upcoming event...and some of that even stuck to the pavement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I never thought 10" was "likely" for anyone. Simple math. 10" requires 10 hours of snowfall at an average rate of 1"/hr @ 10:1. That's a lot to ask unless there is some sort of upper level low or coastal low. It's still possible because of the unusual setup of a mega moisture feed and slow moving boundary. But 10" of snow usually requires a "storm" and not a "wave". There's a ton of moisture with this thing, so I've been thinking that this thing has had a good chance to put down 10" somewhere. Not expected, and not widespread, but certainly doable. Assuming we flip at a good point, I think the DC-Baltimore corridor and west is looking at 5-8" realistically. But as long as I get more than everybody else, I don't care how much I actually get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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