Fozz Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 If the Euro comes in like last night we are good. I will take Euro/Ukie vs Goofus any day. Eric Horst thinks we'll be in the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 If the Euro comes in like last night we are good. I will take Euro/Ukie vs Goofus any day. Problem with that thinking is, we/you loved the GFS up until 6z. It can't suddenly be not trustworthy. I give it weight because it's performed decently. It's had two runs where it was "dry"...I think it should be weighted....if the Euro comes in wet, then it's weight diminishes a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Snowy models --> trust = 10000000000000 Unsnowy models --> trust = 0.000000000000000001 Gotcha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I love how my office goes into panic mode every time there's a threat of an OPM closure as if we've never had one before. "We were shut down for like 2 weeks in 2013, it's going to be allright." **pats boss on head** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yes, he's quite good. <WMDB> we need a like button </WMDB> tellin you cause, you know, you're IC and all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro is like being in a snake draft and having the 12th and 13th pick. All the anticipation builds. You get 2 great picks after seeing what everyone else does. And then you have to wait 3 hours while all the other owners fumble through old magazines, and try to draft players that have already been taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The Brazilian is just a hair quicker at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The euro is probably going to shift south. Probably not as severely as the GFS though. Doesn't mean much as the northern edge of the decent QPF will probably get uber banded anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The Brazilian is just a hair quicker at 12z. *rimshot* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Euro is like being in a snake draft and having the 12th and 13th pick. All the anticipation builds. You get 2 great picks after seeing what everyone else does. And then you have to wait 3 hours while all the other owners fumble through old magazines, and try to draft players that have already been taken.lol!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The Brazilian is just a hair quicker at 12z. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Problem with that thinking is, we/you loved the GFS up until 6z. It can't suddenly be not trustworthy. I give it weight because it's performed decently. It's had two runs where it was "dry"...I think it should be weighted....if the Euro comes in wet, then it's weight diminishes a bit. Not me. I think it's been too suppressed all along and said so last night. I'm sticking with it............down with the ship or rise with the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 But NO Model Banter in this thread. It's for Banter Banter only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not bad Trying to just once get on a shoutout list from a new poster. Chasing the dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Problem with that thinking is, we/you loved the GFS up until 6z. It can't suddenly be not trustworthy. I give it weight because it's performed decently. It's had two runs where it was "dry"...I think it should be weighted....if the Euro comes in wet, then it's weight diminishes a bit. Most global models have a high bias for heavy precipitation thresholds (>1" QPF/day). This is especially true for the UKMO. Can you guess which operational global is the outlier in this regard? That's right, it's the best model, the ECMWF....which actually tends to have a low bias for high threshold amounts. I wouldn't really know what to make of the EC coming in super wet. Bias scores can be found on the bottom panel of the following figure for the operational global for Feb. 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 *rimshot* if he said "hair shorter" sure.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zgummy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Not bad Apparently the Adminstrator's signature can't be ignored ? No little grey X on the right side. So now I gotta look at those tools all day instead of fantasizing about Debby going down .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonelaureliano1 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The Brazilian is just a hair quicker at 12z. But does it give me 8-12 inches IMBH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I do read his (I am assuming gender here), Bob, I think his name is Matt (he changes his screen name so I am guessing), Ian and a few others. I find you, Randy, mapgirl, biggerboat, ravens to be hilarious, so thanks for the laughs! I look at it this way... “Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning.” ― George CarlinIf you have this attitude....it can never disappoint! damn, i've never been grouped in the Circle of Trust even if it's by an admitted drunk, or a regular posing as a "new" member, which is my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I do read his (I am assuming gender here), Bob, I think his name is Matt (he changes his screen name so I am guessing), Ian and a few others. I find you, Randy, mapgirl, biggerboat, ravens to be hilarious, so thanks for the laughs! I look at it this way... “Weather forecast for tonight: dark. Continued dark overnight, with widely scattered light by morning.” ― George CarlinIf you have this attitude....it can never disappoint! To echo others...welcome! There's a lot of good information in here and a lot of knowledgeable people (some of whom you've figured out by now). I'm sure you know this, but the banter threads are pretty well unplugged and the snark can get pretty deep! It's almost no-holds-barred! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Most global models have a high bias for heavy precipitation thresholds (>1" QPF/day). This is especially true for the UKMO. Can you guess which operational global is the outlier in this regard? That's right, it's the best model, the ECMWF....which actually tends to have a low bias for high threshold amounts. I wouldn't really know what to make of the EC coming in super wet. Bias scores can be found on the bottom panel of the following figure for the operational global for Feb. 2015 So, basically kinda confirming my thoughts...if the Euro comes in wet, we should pop the cork? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alcoholhelps Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 damn, i've never been grouped in the Circle of Trust even if it's by an admitted drunk, or a regular posing as a "new" member, which is my guess Promise I am new. I find you refreshing because I like a smart*** I hope you take that as a compliment! My husband and I have the best back and forth, but folks who don't know us swear we will be divorced in a year. Also, my dad just went through Stage 4 oral cancer treatment. It has been tough and my thoughts are with you, even thought I don't know you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Apparently the Adminstrator's signature can't be ignored ? No little grey X on the right side. So now I gotta look at those tools all day instead of fantasizing about Debby going down .. I'm already annoyed by it and gonna remove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm already annoyed by it and gonna remove it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 dtk is my favorite poster He sure can put people in their place.....and rightfully so most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm already annoyed by it and gonna remove it. So I guess you're going to...uhhh...re-tool it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So I guess you're going to...uhhh...re-tool it! you guys...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So, basically kinda confirming my thoughts...if the Euro comes in wet, we should pop the cork? 12z GFS bumped up QPF from its 6z run for IAD/DCA after 7am by a good 30%....it probably overcompensated at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 you guys...... I know...hard to resist a good, obvious pun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 firehose: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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