stemwinder Posted October 29, 2015 Share Posted October 29, 2015 2.06" here at W Windsor-Princeton border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 29F this morning and a high of 55F currently 46F with creepy clouds, perfect Halloween weather day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 2, 2015 Share Posted November 2, 2015 29F this morning and a high of 55F currently 46F with creepy clouds, perfect Halloween weather day.[/quote Really nice day overall down here 67 today more balmy days on the way!!....posted my winter weather outlook very warm Nov and Dec then below normal mid January on....20"-38" at the airport...cringing at the warmth in the Pacific though...so BOOM OR BUST probably somewhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 29F this morning and a high of 55F currently 46F with creepy clouds, perfect Halloween weather day.[/quote Really nice day overall down here 67 today more balmy days on the way!!....posted my winter weather outlook very warm Nov and Dec then below normal mid January on....20"-38" at the airport...cringing at the warmth in the Pacific though...so BOOM OR BUST probably somewhere in between. Trying to counter balance the fact that we are due for a dud dead ratter winter with some promising atmospheric indices. My vastly simplified take for the coming winter is a sort of milder version of 2010 which was not a particularly cold one in itself. I expect an active storm track and to see the bulk of our snow accumulations to come the second half of winter. My breakdown is: December +3F with two or three notable mild periods January +1F a significant Jan thaw but some good snow chances so snow will finish normal to above February -2F A return of the big snowstorm absent the last four winters a good weenie month Snow totals for SEPA 35"-45" south to north I like the "boom or bust" potential as huge as well therefore would not be surprised if it ends up mostly warm and muddy or knee deep in drifts. It would be fun to see December turn out cold that would throw a monkey wrench in it and confound many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Trying to counter balance the fact that we are due for a dud dead ratter winter with some promising atmospheric indices. My vastly simplified take for the coming winter is a sort of milder version of 2010 which was not a particularly cold one in itself. I expect an active storm track and to see the bulk of our snow accumulations to come the second half of winter. My breakdown is: December +3F with two or three notable mild periods January +1F a significant Jan thaw but some good snow chances so snow will finish normal to above February -2F A return of the big snowstorm absent the last four winters a good weenie month Snow totals for SEPA 35"-45" south to north I like the "boom or bust" potential as huge as well therefore would not be surprised if it ends up mostly warm and muddy or knee deep in drifts. It would be fun to see December turn out cold that would throw a monkey wrench in it and confound many Seems like we are in the same ball park...either way you slice it warm wet vs cold wet there will be extremes for sure I expect this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH REGARDS TO HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA ON SATURDAY. REFLECTED THIS TREND IN THE FORECAST BY LOWERING PRECIP CHANCES FOR EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. FOR SATURDAY, CONFINED CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT IS NOW DRY. THE NEXT FORECASTER ON THE DAY SHIFT TODAY, WHOSE LAST (BUT CERTAINLY NOT LEAST) FORECAST WILL BE PUBLISHED THIS AFTERNOON AFTER RETIRING FROM AN ASTOUNDING 34-YEAR CAREER OF DEDICATED PUBLIC SERVICE IN THE NWS, MAY BE ABLE TO LOWER POPS EVEN MORE (BEFORE HE RIDES OFF INTO THE SUNSET) IF THIS PROGRESSIVE TREND CONTINUES WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE. So who is checking out today? I know Tony should be close (as am I). Whoever it is, congrats! Beautiful week coming up weather-wise in the area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 3, 2015 Share Posted November 3, 2015 Aurora borealis may be seen tonight this far south http://www.pennlive.com/news/2015/11/northern_lights_pennsylvania.html#incart_river_home Clear skies for a change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Paul Knight's Winter outlook on Weather World today. Snow fans will love and it's colder than mine. http://cms.met.psu.edu/WeatherWorld/interview.mp4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted November 4, 2015 Share Posted November 4, 2015 Wow warm as the eye can see next 2 weeks minus maybe 2 days at normal 57-60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Beautiful day here in NW Chester County - below a shot from my backyard webcam at the time of high temp. That 74.9 was still well short of the 80.0 record high set way back in 1974. So far this month we are averaging 8.2 degrees above normal compared with October's 1.8 below normal readings for here in Chester County. It looks like quite a few additional above normal days between now and Turkey Day before more winter like conditions begin to set in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted November 5, 2015 Share Posted November 5, 2015 Really awesome fall foliage this year. A little past peak right now, but much more colorful than it has been lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 So who is checking out today? I know Tony should be close (as am I). Whoever it is, congrats! Beautiful week coming up weather-wise in the area! It is Tony who just retired. He will be missed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 It is Tony who just retired. He will be missed! He most certainly will be! I read his last AFD. I always chucked how I could tell when he was writing one by his "exit stage right" and other quips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted November 6, 2015 Share Posted November 6, 2015 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Noisy thunderstorm is passing just to my west right now. Moving NE. I live just S of Princeton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Picked up 0.31" of rain so far today at the closest reporting station, currently under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the cell coming out of Mercer county heading northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Quite a bit of shear and a sizable hodograph, but close to no instability based off of mesoanalysis and HRRR forecast soundings: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted November 10, 2015 Share Posted November 10, 2015 Picked up 0.31" of rain so far today at the closest reporting station, currently under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the cell coming out of Mercer county heading northeast. The cell is moving very fast, and apparently losing some punch as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 0.55" of rain so far here today in NW Chester County PA High temp 56.8 Low was 47.3 +6.0 above normal for today and so far +8.8 for November!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Basically just a cloudy, misty, gloomy and windy at times day. Fall. Don't think I received a 1/2 inch. Still mist and light rain moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 40 years ago today the Edmund Fitzgerald went down with 29 crew members in Lake Superior https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vST6hVRj2A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 Have picked up 0.53" of rain for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted November 11, 2015 Share Posted November 11, 2015 .64 rainfall in NW Chesco not counting this morning's drizzle. Lone tomato plant that I covered for the one upper 20's morning we had is still hanging in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 No second leaf mulch run needed the wind cleaned the lawn. Here is a new one to me a rare wind driven "seiche" on the lakes, but nowhere near the damage this article is claiming: http://superstation95.com/index.php/world/515 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 In the fantasy range...But 3 cold shots shown on the model 24-30. Would be awesome to verify, though we got a while to go. The pictures show the peak coldest anomalies for each cold shot 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Are they really 3 cold shots? They are the 25th, 28th, and 30th. I would think maybe it's one long one or perhaps 2, the 28th and 30th really just one. How warm are the anomalies in the intervening days, esp the 29th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 The ensembles are going back and forth with the duration of a "cooler" pattern around Thanksgiving. I doubt we will see three cold shots as that graphic shows. Really need to get the trough axis into the southern plains instead of in the west days 8-14 to have snow threats in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted November 15, 2015 Share Posted November 15, 2015 Are they really 3 cold shots? They are the 25th, 28th, and 30th. I would think maybe it's one long one or perhaps 2, the 28th and 30th really just one. How warm are the anomalies in the intervening days, esp the 29th?The anomalies aren't warm in the intervening days, just not as cold but anomalies were still negative. You could see the shots start and Canada and go here 3 times so they were three cold shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 FIRST fantasy snow of the season on the 0z GFS at 336hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 FIRST fantasy snow of the season on the 0z GFS at 336hrs First of about 300 digital inches of snow this winter from the 14 day GFS. However, there is some good model consensus to a very cold start to December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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