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E PA/NJ/DE/Oak Hill Banter/Non Storm OBS thread


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Woke up to 5% Tornado probs, 30%wind probs and a Enhanced Risk for the area. This threat kind of came out of no where, and sounds like there's a pretty good shot for a couple tornadoes today.

 

post-135-0-61924900-1436447784_thumb.gif

 

 ...CNTRL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH EARLY TNGT...
   BAND OF SEASONABLY STRONG /40+ KT/ 700-500 MB WSW FLOW ATTENDANT TO
   IND UPR VORT WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPR OH VLY LATER THIS MORNING AND
   REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC CST BY EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSTANTIAL
   MOISTURE RETURN /PW INCREASING TO AOA 2.00 INCHES/. MID-LVL LAPSE
   RATES WILL BE WEAK. BUT GIVEN MOISTURE QUALITY...MODERATE TO STRONG
   SFC HEATING SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY E
   OF THE MOUNTAINS.

   DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW UPSLOPE FLOW COULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION
   OF EXISTING MID-OH VLY CONVECTIVE BAND...AND/OR DEVELOPMENT OF
   ADDITIONAL STORMS TO ITS EAST...OVER ERN KY/SRN OH/WV TOWARD MIDDAY.
   OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER
   CNTRL MD/NRN VA...AND ALONG WARM FRONT OVER THE LWR SUSQUEHANNA AND
   DELAWARE VLYS OF CNTRL/NRN PA AND NE MD...DE...NJ.

   COMBINATION OF DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND RICH MOISTURE SUGGESTS
   THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS AS THE STORMS
   ORGANIZE INTO A SQLN OVER WV AND WRN PORTIONS OF PA/MD THIS AFTN. IN
   ADDITION...ENHANCED LOW-LVL SHEAR NEAR WARM FRONT AND NEAR LEE
   TROUGH/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION OVER CNTRL-ERN PA AND NRN MD WILL
   FOSTER A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY MORE
   DISCRETE/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THAT FORM THERE. THE SVR THREAT COULD
   PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVE ACROSS FAR NRN MD/ERN PA AND NJ AS THE SQLN
   MERGES WITH THE WARM FRONTAL STORMS...FORMING AN MCS THAT MOVES OFF
   THE CST LATER TNGT. 
 

 

 

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mcd1339.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1339
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF PA/MD/WV AND FAR NORTH VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 091659Z - 091900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AN INCREASING
DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF PA/MD/WV AND
ADJACENT FAR NORTHERN VA.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
ERIE VICINITY TOWARD NORTHERN PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A
PRECEDING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS PA/NJ. UPSTREAM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN WV/FAR
SOUTHWEST PA AT 17Z SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE AND POTENTIALLY GROW
UPSCALE OVER TIME...WHILE ADDITIONAL/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS SHOULD
ALSO DEVELOP/INCREASE JUST AHEAD OF/PERIPHERAL TO THIS ACTIVITY.
INITIAL SIGNS OF THIS MAY ALREADY BE OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL PA
COINCIDENT WITH A DEEPENING CU FIELD PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AMID AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY INHIBITED WARM SECTOR.

ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING WHAT MAY BE A COMBINATION OF
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND AN UPSCALE-GROWING CONVECTIVE LINE/BOWS
WILL BE AIDED BY A SEASONALLY STRONG STRENGTHENING BELT OF
LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS NOTED IN UPSTREAM
UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS. DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS...WITH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL...PARTICULARLY
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT ACROSS PA /AND
EVENTUALLY NJ/.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 07/09/2015


ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON 41567536 40547523 38807635 39357922 40388015 41797697
41567536
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HRRR continues to throw a squall line around 7-8. But other than shear, I really don't like the setup for today. Pretty marginal instability up this way and we still have high clouds at least in Trenton. But I have been surprised by shear driven events before. Still won't be surprised if the line collapses as it hits the PA/NJ border at least in central NJ.

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HRRR continues to throw a squall line around 7-8. But other than shear, I really don't like the setup for today. Pretty marginal instability up this way and we still have high clouds at least in Trenton. But I have been surprised by shear driven events before. Still won't be surprised if the line collapses as it hits the PA/NJ border at least in central NJ.

Eh, never know. I'm waiting to see what it looks like later. Parameters should be getting better as time goes on.

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