Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

E PA/NJ/DE/Oak Hill Banter/Non Storm OBS thread


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Woke up to 5% Tornado probs, 30%wind probs and a Enhanced Risk for the area. This threat kind of came out of no where, and sounds like there's a pretty good shot for a couple tornadoes today.

 

post-135-0-61924900-1436447784_thumb.gif

 

 ...CNTRL APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH EARLY TNGT...
   BAND OF SEASONABLY STRONG /40+ KT/ 700-500 MB WSW FLOW ATTENDANT TO
   IND UPR VORT WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPR OH VLY LATER THIS MORNING AND
   REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC CST BY EVE...ACCOMPANIED BY SUBSTANTIAL
   MOISTURE RETURN /PW INCREASING TO AOA 2.00 INCHES/. MID-LVL LAPSE
   RATES WILL BE WEAK. BUT GIVEN MOISTURE QUALITY...MODERATE TO STRONG
   SFC HEATING SHOULD BOOST MLCAPE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY E
   OF THE MOUNTAINS.

   DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW UPSLOPE FLOW COULD SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION
   OF EXISTING MID-OH VLY CONVECTIVE BAND...AND/OR DEVELOPMENT OF
   ADDITIONAL STORMS TO ITS EAST...OVER ERN KY/SRN OH/WV TOWARD MIDDAY.
   OTHER STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTN ALONG LEE TROUGH OVER
   CNTRL MD/NRN VA...AND ALONG WARM FRONT OVER THE LWR SUSQUEHANNA AND
   DELAWARE VLYS OF CNTRL/NRN PA AND NE MD...DE...NJ.

   COMBINATION OF DEEP...UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AND RICH MOISTURE SUGGESTS
   THE POTENTIAL FOR BOWING SEGMENTS WITH DMGG WIND GUSTS AS THE STORMS
   ORGANIZE INTO A SQLN OVER WV AND WRN PORTIONS OF PA/MD THIS AFTN. IN
   ADDITION...ENHANCED LOW-LVL SHEAR NEAR WARM FRONT AND NEAR LEE
   TROUGH/WARM FRONT INTERSECTION OVER CNTRL-ERN PA AND NRN MD WILL
   FOSTER A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR TORNADOES WITH ANY MORE
   DISCRETE/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS THAT FORM THERE. THE SVR THREAT COULD
   PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVE ACROSS FAR NRN MD/ERN PA AND NJ AS THE SQLN
   MERGES WITH THE WARM FRONTAL STORMS...FORMING AN MCS THAT MOVES OFF
   THE CST LATER TNGT. 
 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

mcd1339.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1339
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF PA/MD/WV AND FAR NORTH VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 091659Z - 091900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AN INCREASING
DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN PORTIONS OF PA/MD/WV AND
ADJACENT FAR NORTHERN VA.

DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE
ERIE VICINITY TOWARD NORTHERN PA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A
PRECEDING WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD
ACROSS PA/NJ. UPSTREAM STORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN WV/FAR
SOUTHWEST PA AT 17Z SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE AND POTENTIALLY GROW
UPSCALE OVER TIME...WHILE ADDITIONAL/SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS SHOULD
ALSO DEVELOP/INCREASE JUST AHEAD OF/PERIPHERAL TO THIS ACTIVITY.
INITIAL SIGNS OF THIS MAY ALREADY BE OCCURRING ACROSS CENTRAL PA
COINCIDENT WITH A DEEPENING CU FIELD PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
AMID AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE/WEAKLY INHIBITED WARM SECTOR.

ORGANIZED STORM MODES INCLUDING WHAT MAY BE A COMBINATION OF
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND AN UPSCALE-GROWING CONVECTIVE LINE/BOWS
WILL BE AIDED BY A SEASONALLY STRONG STRENGTHENING BELT OF
LOW/MID-TROPOSPHERIC WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS NOTED IN UPSTREAM
UPPER-AIR OBSERVATIONS. DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS...WITH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL AS WELL...PARTICULARLY
IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE LOW/WARM FRONT ACROSS PA /AND
EVENTUALLY NJ/.

..GUYER/MEAD.. 07/09/2015


ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON 41567536 40547523 38807635 39357922 40388015 41797697
41567536
  Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home Weather Topics:
WatchesMesoscale DiscussionsOutlooksFire WeatherAll ProductsContact Us NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
[email protected]
Page last modified: July 09, 2015 Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Link to comment
Share on other sites

HRRR continues to throw a squall line around 7-8. But other than shear, I really don't like the setup for today. Pretty marginal instability up this way and we still have high clouds at least in Trenton. But I have been surprised by shear driven events before. Still won't be surprised if the line collapses as it hits the PA/NJ border at least in central NJ.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HRRR continues to throw a squall line around 7-8. But other than shear, I really don't like the setup for today. Pretty marginal instability up this way and we still have high clouds at least in Trenton. But I have been surprised by shear driven events before. Still won't be surprised if the line collapses as it hits the PA/NJ border at least in central NJ.

Eh, never know. I'm waiting to see what it looks like later. Parameters should be getting better as time goes on.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...